The Fantasy Footballers’ road trip throughout each NFL Division finally makes its way into the NFC, starting with one of the most competitive divisions from 2024 in the NFC North! As one of just two divisions in the league to get three teams into the playoffs last season, the NFC North posted the highest winning percentage for an NFL division in a single season (66.2%) and scoring differential (+384) in league history. Will the Lions be able to claim their third consecutive division title, or will one of the other three teams knock them off their throne?
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Let’s Get Divisional!
Detroit Lions (15-2)
Player Additions: Nothing really on offense
Player Subtractions: Nothing really on offense
Rookies: WR Isaac TeSlaa (Round 3)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 10.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
|
PPG |
Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA Play | Pass EPA |
Rush EPA |
|
1 |
2 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
7 |
The talk in the NFC North has centered on the Detroit Lions for the last two seasons, but significant changes have marked this offseason for the team. Easily the biggest change to the Lions comes in their coaching staff, where they lost Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson and Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn to head coaching vacancies elsewhere in the league. While Glenn will certainly be missed on the defensive side of the ball, it’s Johnson’s absence that should have fantasy managers wondering exactly how different the fantasy pieces for the Lions will be in 2025 under new OC John Morton.
Getting elite RB fantasy production from the Lions has been their bread and butter over the last several seasons and should be the case again in 2025. Jahmyr Gibbs took a huge step forward in his sophomore season, improving in every efficiency metric from his rookie season en route to an RB3 finish on the season. His running mate, David Montgomery, was one of the more consistent RBs for fantasy last year, finishing as the RB18 despite missing three games to end the year. Despite the changes to the offensive playcaller for Detroit, this pair of RBs should be one of the unaffected elements of the Lions offense this season.
Where things could see a change for fantasy managers comes in the passing game starting with Jared Goff. Goff was a late-round QB darling during draft season and paid off for the most part, finishing the season as the QB6 and is one of just three QBs to finish inside the top 6 for fantasy in each of the last three years. What fantasy managers will have to decide is how much the departure of Ben Johnson’s influence had on Goff’s fantasy output over the last three seasons, or if it’s something he can continue under the new offensive regime.
While the running game feels safe in Detroit, the passing game could be one of the biggest areas for change in 2025. Amon-Ra St. Brown is coming off three straight seasons as the WR8 or better, finishing as the WR3 in back-to-back seasons. If there’s a safe bet for fantasy managers in this aerial attack, St. Brown seems to be it, bringing a good blend of PPR monster and red zone domination to the table. Last season, Amon-Ra finished with the most WR receptions and TDs inside the 10-yard line and continued to get it done, lining up all over the field.
Outside of Amon-Ra, fantasy managers will have to call their shot on who else could bring value in the passing game for the Lions. Jameson Williams became a bigger part of the Detroit offense last season, finishing as the WR18 on the year, but that came with more finishes outside the top-24 on a weekly basis than it did as a WR2 or better. Williams did flash more of his big-play ability, though, averaging 17.3 yards per reception on the season, so there could be more to build on moving forward.
Detroit spent a 3rd-Round pick on WR Isaac TeSlaa, so Williams won’t be alone competing for the WR2 role this season. TeSlaa didn’t have a great analytical profile coming out of Arkansas, posting just a 13.4-yard per route run, the lowest of any WR taken in Rounds 1-3 since 2014.
It’s hard to forget about Sam LaPorta’s amazing rookie season when he finished as the TE1 overall, but the high price tag for the TE left fantasy managers wanting more in 2024. LaPorta saw decreases in target share and first read targets in his sophomore season, but still should be a mid-tier TE option for fantasy rosters with upside this season.
Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
Player Additions: RB Jordan Mason, WR Rondale Moore
Player Subtractions: QB Sam Darnold (SEA), QB Daniel Jones (IND), QB Nick Mullens (JAX), TE Johnny Mundt (JAX), WR Brandon Powell
Rookies: WR Tai Felton (Round 3), TE Gavin Bartholomew (Round 6)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
|
PPG |
Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA Play | Pass EPA |
Rush EPA |
|
9 |
12 | 15 | 18 | 8 | 19 | 14 | 13 |
23 |
Maybe one of the bigger surprise teams from 2024 came from Minnesota, who fell just a game short of winning their first NFC North title since 2022. The Vikings were 9-1 in one-score games last season, and exceeded expectations based on their scoring differential by a full three wins.
Things look a bit different in Minnesota heading into 2025, with the biggest change coming at QB, where second-year QB JJ McCarthy looks poised to take over the offense. For fantasy, the Vikings have consistently produced goodness for fantasy managers over the last several seasons, regardless of who was under center, so there’s hope that McCarthy getting sprinkled with Kevin O’Connell dust can produce a top-8 QB for a fourth-straight season. McCarthy has plenty of questions to answer after missing his entire rookie season due to a meniscus tear last August, and will be the youngest starting QB in the league when the season kicks off.
If McCarthy is going to have success in his first starts, it will be on the backs of the great arsenal of receiving options in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Jefferson provides an elite receiving threat for his young QB to rely on as the WR with the most receiving yards (7,432) through his first five years of his career. Despite worries over his ceiling last season with Sam Darnold, Jefferson still produced elite numbers for fantasy managers, finishing tied with Ja’Marr Chase for the most end zone targets (18), the most in his career so far.
Behind Jefferson in the receiving pecking order is another useful fantasy WR in Addison. Addison has averaged a TD every seven receptions through his first two years in the NFL, so there’s plenty of WR2 upside despite playing alongside an elite weapon in Jefferson. A potential cause for concern this season is the risk of time lost due to off-field issues that could result in a league suspension.
A sneaky target in the Vikings’ receiving game for fantasy managers could be T.J. Hockenson. Hockenson didn’t play until Week 9 in 2024 after recovering from injury, but was instantly involved once he got in the field, seeing an 18% target share. There was meat left on the bone from Hockenson last season, though, failing to get into the end zone despite seeing 62 targets. Hockenson was just one of five TEs to see 60+ targets in a season and not score a TD.
The biggest question outside of how the offense will look with McCarthy under center could be what the RB work will look like in Minnesota. Aaron Jones was brought back after leading the Vikings’ backfield in 2024 and seeing the highest snap percentage and total opportunities of his career. Jones is entering his ninth NFL season, so there could be room to take some of the work off his shoulders thanks to the arrival of Jordan Mason via trade this offseason. Mason finally got a shot to play in San Francisco last season and took full advantage of the opportunity. Among all qualified RBs, Mason finished in the top ten in both broken tackle percentage and yards after contact. Fantasy managers should be able to find real value in this RB room, with both RBs not costing a premium draft pick in redraft leagues.
Green Bay Packers (11-6)
Player Additions: WR Mecole Hardman
Player Subtractions: RB A.J. Dillon
Rookies: WR Matthew Golden (Round 1), WR Savion Williams (Round 3)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
|
PPG |
Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA Play | Pass EPA |
Rush EPA |
|
8 |
7 | 30 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
8 |
While the Vikings were the team to find the right side of coin flip games in 2024, the Packers were the other side of that coin. Despite finishing 11-6, the Packers went just 5-5 in one-score games, so there could have been more wins in their pocket if things bounced differently in a handful of weeks.
The most consistent piece of the Packers’ offense last season was Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL with 14 rushing TDs inside the 10-yard line. There were plenty of questions about what Jacobs’ role would be in Green Bay, but we can definitely say he was one of the few workhorse backs in the league, seeing the fourth-most carries and red zone touches in the league. Jacobs saw 35% of the Packers’ rushing attempts and targets on the year, so his RB5 finish was one of pure opportunity accumulation.
While it seems to be clear who the lead RB is for Green Bay, the WR room is anything but clear heading into 2025. The Packers finished 2024 as the only team in the NFL without a single player seeing more than 20% of the team’s targets, and to make matters more complicated, the team added two more WRs in the draft. Among the veteran WRs, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks should factor into the passing attack. Reed’s numbers say he should be the leader of that trio, especially after starting the season with WR1 and WR2 finishes in two of their first four games. The knock on Reed has always been how efficient he’s forced to be since he’s only on the field for 60% of the team’s snaps on a regular basis.
Even with the lack of clarity in the passing game for the Packers, the additions of Matthew Golden and Savion Williams in the first and third rounds of the NFL Draft should only complicate things for fantasy managers. Golden flew up draft boards after flying through the combine drills despite an analytical collegiate profile that isn’t impressive. Among 1st-Round NFL WRs over the last decade, he ranks at the bottom in terms of final college season per-route numbers, posting just a 2.10 yard per route run and 17.7% target per route run.
To add to the lack of clarity at WR, TE Tucker Kraft turned in a solid sophomore season as the TE9 on the year. Kraft excelled after the catch last season, averaging 8.8 yards after catch, a full two yards higher than the next qualified TE. Where Kraft gave an added boost to fantasy managers was the 7 TDs he caught on the year.
Of course, all of the debates in the Packers’ passing game hinge completely on QB Jordan Love. Love was a surprisingly strong fantasy QB in his first full season as a starting QB in 2023, finishing as the QB5, but he was a bit of a disappointment in 2024, finishing with as many top-10 QB weeks as Marcus Mariota. With all of the passing weapons in Green Bay, Love should have every opportunity to be a strong fantasy producer, but it will hinge on his TD rate coming up from the 4% fantasy managers saw from Week 8 to the end of the year.
Chicago Bears (5-12)
Player Additions: WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Durham Smythe
Player Subtractions: WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett
Rookies: TE Colston Loveland (Round 1), WR Luther Burden III (Round 2), RB Kyle Monangai (Round 7)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
|
PPG |
Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA Play | Pass EPA |
Rush EPA |
|
28 |
32 | 8 | 25 | 31 | 24 | 26 | 24 |
22 |
Despite being the bottom of the division for three straight seasons, the Chicago Bears might be the most talked-about team in the division this offseason. Chicago made a change at Head Coach, securing one of the more sought-after play-callers in the league in Ben Johnson.
The addition of Johnson should have a direct effect on what fantasy managers will expect from Caleb Williams. After being selected with the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Williams brought in lofty expectations last season after Chicago worked to put weapons around him to succeed, but failed to live up to the expectations. Williams was sacked 68 times, tied for the third-most all-time, and finished 44th of 47 qualifying QBs in catchable target rate (a very nice 69%). While there were some bright spots – five top-6 QB finishes and three games of 25+ fantasy points – Williams will have to find more consistency in 2025 to begin being considered a real fantasy option in single QB leagues.
There should be an opportunity for fantasy managers to find production from the Bears’ passing options with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet returning, along with the additions of rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. Moore has been a consistent fantasy producer, finishing as a top-24 WR in each of his last six seasons, but saw a dip in his yards per reception last season by a full 4.3 yards.
After being taken with the 9th-overall pick in 2024, Odunze left a lot to be desired for fantasy last season and struggled to get much footing in such a crowded WR room. Odunze posted the lowest fantasy points per game (7.0) for any rookie WR with 100+ targets since 2000. The departure of Keenan Allen should open the door for Odunze to improve on his three top-24 finishes as a rookie.
Things are a bit more complicated with the drafting of rookies Colston and Burden with the Bears’ first two picks. Colston’s extremely high draft capital for a TE suggests he’s part of Johnson’s plan with the new Bears offense. At Michigan, Colston was targeted on 38% of his routes, the highest rate of any TE over the last decade. Burden was a highly debated prospect coming into draft season, comping closely to DJ Moore and is best with the ball in his hands in space.
While the receiving options will get plenty of attention in Chicago ahead of fantasy drafts, fantasy managers should probably be more interested in what’s going to happen with the RB room. After plenty of speculation that the Bears would add an early-round RB in the draft, Chicago heads into the season with a combination of D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson poised to have the first shot at leading the way, with rookie Kyle Monangai in the mix as well.
Swift has a history with HC Ben Johnson during his stint in Detroit from 2020 to 2022. While there’s plenty of debate about how effective Swift actually is on the field, he’s produced for fantasy managers every season, finishing as a top-24 RB each year he’s been in the league. That said, Swift ranked 28th out of 30 RBs in yards after contact last season and was dead last in rush success rate on zone scheme plays.
The inefficiency of Swift could open the door for Johnson to carve out a “Jamaal Williams” type role. Johnson averaged just 2.7 yards on just 55 carries last season, which ranked dead last among RBs. One redeeming quality for Johnson could be the 6 rushing TDs inside the 5, which is the same total as Joe Mixon and James Cook.
A wild card in the Bears’ backfield could be the rookie Monangai, who posted back-to-back 1,200-yard rushing seasons at Rutgers, though as a 7th-round pick, he’s got an uphill battle to become fantasy-relevant this season.
Who Wins the NFC North?
|
Andy |
Mike |
Jason |
|
Packers |
Packers |
Vikings |
|
Lions |
Lions |
Lions |
|
Vikings |
Vikings |
Packers |
|
Bears |
Bears |
Bears |
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/NuRWiOr
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