Washington Commanders‘ WR Terry McLaurin is coming off his best season as a pro, posting 82 grabs on 117 targets for 1,096 yards and 13 TDs. These numbers, of course, coincided with the emergence of rookie QB Jayden Daniels, who won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award last season. The outstanding QB play was a breath of fresh air for McLaurin’s dynasty managers, who had seen him catch passes from the following list of QBs prior to last season’s breakout.
| Player | Number of Starts |
| Case Keenum | 8 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 13 |
| Colt McCoy | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 6 |
| Kyle Allen | 4 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 24 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 |
| Garrett Gilbert | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 7 |
| Sam Howell | 18 |
| Jayden Daniels | 17 |
Daniels’ stellar play helped McLaurin finish as the WR5 in Half-PPR scoring formats last year, the best finish of his six-year career by a wide margin. As a player who’d long been regarded as exceptionally talented but held back by subpar QB play, the statistical leap he made last season couldn’t make more sense, and it makes the premise of this article simple: pro-bowl-caliber QB play + pro-bowl-caliber WR play = fantasy gold mine. For McLaurin, the path to finishing as a WR1 in 2025 is simple – do what he did last year, or something close.
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2025 Path to WR1 Series Primer.
2024 Season Recap
Forgotten in the greatness of last season was the fact that McLaurin and Daniels actually got off to a shaky start together. McLaurin posted just eight catches for 39 yards over weeks 1 and 2, as Daniels leaned heavily on his legs while adjusting to a new league. It wasn’t until Week 3 that Daniels actually threw his first TD pass (to an Offensive Tackle) and then ultimately connected with McLaurin for their first TD as a duo to seal the win against Cincinnati.
The two would never look back. McLaurin finished as the WR9 in Week 3, and only posted two finishes outside the Top-24 the rest of the way. His 13 Top-24 finishes tied with Ja’Marr Chase for the most by a WR last year, and more importantly, earned him an ‘A’ consistency rating in the Baller’s metric.
McLaurin’s reception and yardage totals stayed remarkably consistent with his career averages. So, how did he jump from the WR28 to the WR5? The short and easy answer is that he caught a whole bunch of TDs. 13 TDs to be exact, eight more than his career average of five TDs going into last season.
Jayden Daniels airing out this Bengals defense with a double move 27 yard TD to Terry McLaurin
Just call him Santa Claus because he is handing off gifts
@JayD__5 pic.twitter.com/hBz5avflj7
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) September 24, 2024
The Path for 2025
McLaurin’s outlier season in terms of TDs has many fantasy players and analysts reaching for low-hanging fruit and fading McLaurin on the basis of TD regression. I’ll be the first to admit, I don’t think McLaurin will score 13 or more TDs again this season; however, there are several reasons why I still think he’s a good bet to finish inside the top 12 for fantasy this year. I’ll lay them out now.
Target Volume
As good as the passing attack for the Commanders was in 2024, they finished toward the bottom of the league in terms of total team passing attempts with 525. Daniels’ 148 rushing attempts were second in the NFL in rushing attempts by a QB behind only Jalen Hurts (150). I’d expect the team to encourage him to lean on his legs less as an effort to preserve their second-year star QB. Additionally, Commanders’ Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is known for his high-volume passing attacks. In 2022, his final season as Head Coach of the Arizona Cardinals, the team attempted 664 passes, fourth-most in the NFL. I can easily envision a world where Washington attempts closer to 600 passes this year, which would bring McLaurin back to his typical range of 130 targets.
aDOT and Yards
Per PlayerProfiler, McLaurin’s average depth of target of 13.3 yards was his highest since his rookie season (13.9 yards), but we can expect him to see similar target depths this season with the same QB and offensive system returning. His 26 deep targets and 1561 air yards were both the 7th-most in the league last year, as he and Daniels repeatedly connected on downfield shots. If anything, Terry might cede some underneath targets and screen-game work to newcomer Deebo Samuel, who excels in that area. McLaurin should continue to operate as the team’s primary chain mover and downfield threat, garnering valuable targets in all three areas of the field.
Another favorite talking point of Commanders’ faders is their strength of schedule. They’ve got one of the tougher schedules on paper in the NFL this year, with an opponent win percentage of .550, but that may be good news for pass-catchers who rely on pass-heavy game scripts to score fantasy points. If McLaurin does return to the volume he’s used to seeing, a 90 rec/1,200 yd season is right smack in the middle of his range of outcomes, in which case he’d only need five TDs to reach 200 half-ppr fantasy points, enough to make him the WR12 last year. That’s an extremely conservative TD total in what should once again be a good offense.
TDs
McLaurin finally gets the good QB play we’ve been waiting for, and he smashes!
Voice of public opinion: “But surely it can’t happen again, right? TD regression must be on the way.”
Well, what if it isn’t? Last I checked, Daniels is back for another season, and he just might get better. I touched on it before, but the Daniels-McLaurin connection got off to a slow start last year. McLaurin averaged 14.6 fppg from Week 3 on after he and Daniels hit their stride. Extrapolate that over a full season, and you’ve got 248 points in half-PPR scoring, also known as high-end WR1 numbers. I want to be clear – I know 13 TDs is an outlier number and unlikely to happen again for McLaurin, but I also think he’s talented enough to find other ways to rack up fantasy points, especially with an accurate passer like Daniels to get him the ball.
Conclusion
I laid out the path for “Scary Terry” to reach a WR12 finish above, but I don’t think that’s his ceiling for 2025. His ceiling instead lies somewhere in the range of what he did last year (WR5), and he’s currently being ranked where I believe his floor lies (WR24). If the tough schedule ends up stifling the Commanders’ offense and Deebo Samuel ends up stealing a surprising number of targets, Terry’s still going to return WR2 value like he’s always done. I have no problem going High-T in drafts this year and leaving with McLaurin as my WR1. With the potential for increased target volume and continued development of his star QB, McLaurin should be as solid an option as you’ll find for fantasy football this year.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/VEvsqoI
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