The fantasy season is filled with noise (especially Week 1), and sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here; is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat?
I’ll lay out ten of the most intriguing or surprising storylines to me, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you what are Things That Matter and Things That Don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Jordan Love Getting Injured: MATTERS
It’s a bummer when one of those bookmarked players we are excited about all summer has his season undercut almost immediately. We’re lucky the injury Jordan Love sustained in the waning moments of the Packers’ loss to the Eagles in Brazil wasn’t worse as initial close-up footage painted the worst picture possible; Love will reportedly be out 3-6 weeks with an MCL sprain, which came as a welcome relief.
Had the injury been longer, bringing Ryan Tannehill in would have made sense; Matt LaFleur was gone as OC by then, but in Tennessee, Tannehill ran a similar system under Arthur Smith to compile the best years of his career.
As it is, the Packers will reportedly roll with backup Malik Willis for now. Willis has three starts in his career, all of which came in his rookie year in 2022; for his career, he has nearly as many rushing attempts (31) as passing attempts (35). In small samples, there are a few small indicators he may be better now than he was then, but as a rookie, he was woefully inaccurate, completing 51% of his passes for 4.5 Y/A, 0 TDs, and 3 INTs. No receiver ever caught more than 48 yards in a game. It may be tough sledding for the exciting receiving options in Green Bay until Love returns.
Saquon Barkley’s Usage: MATTERS
Barkley put up a masterpiece in Brazil, his first start as a Philadelphia Eagle. Barkley had 26 opportunities to Kenneth Gainwell’s three. He ran on 96% of Philadelphia’s running back rushes and scored thrice, including once through the air. There was undoubtedly much made of the lack of pass-catching upside that would await Barkley with an athletic QB such as Jalen Hurts; while he hit paydirt, he only had two targets, so we should be patient in deciphering this.
The Eagles also went 1-for-3 on Tush Pushes, being turned back once and fumbling another. It is too early to say, but because they only failed twice all year in 2023. Jason Kelce, the future Hall of Fame center, retired; it is safe to wonder if the play will be as effective going forward (the Packers were fifth in defensive EPA per rush last year, so they do have a good run defense). If the Tush Push becomes less reliable than Barkley slicing through wide-open gaps in the defense as he did Thursday, he will get more goal-line work than previous Eagles’ backs. We’re in wait-and-see mode for now.
Rhamondre Stevenson’s Feature Workload: PROBABLY DOESN’T MATTER
Stevenson ran 25 times for 120 yards in New England’s surprise win over the Bengals on Sunday, adding three catches for six yards. While it is encouraging that a coaching staff entrusted him with a feature workload from the jump, it probably won’t make a big difference on your fantasy team most weeks.
This is all relative; Stevenson has a shot to be an RB2, but he’s still not likely worth the opportunity cost of a sixth-round pick. The Bengals are perennial slow starters. There were already signs that their run defense may not amount to much, either. Meanwhile, there is little hope that the Patriots’ roster will continue this way. Expect a downturn in joy in Foxborough with a tough slate of games coming imminently. Regardless of the opportunity, it won’t always be this good without positive game scripts or sustained scoring drives.
As usual, Stevenson did little with his pass-catching opportunities, while Antonio Gibson, a bona fide weapon out of the backfield in the passing game, is on the roster. If Stevenson continues to struggle there, the answer is obvious. And then, eventually, the team will likely give way to rookie QB Drake Maye, who is more prone to scramble and look deep than he is to dump the ball off.
Jameson Williams Coming Alive: PROBABLY MATTERS
Based on the trade of Ernest Jones, the Rams knew their starting middle linebackers were an expected mismatch in coverage in the middle of the field against Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta; they took their shot at committing more resources to clamp down in this area Sunday, and Williams made them pay repeatedly.
A field stretcher is essential; it clears space for the offense to work underneath. The more substantial the threat, the more a defense will honor it. Given how he looked last night—Williams went 5-121-1 against Los Angeles—defenses should be on alert. This may be the missing element Detroit needs to level up, which is only good for everyone. Williams himself won’t always be the beneficiary, but it’s good he proved he had this in his tool chest.
J.K. Dobbins Going Bananas: MATTERS
One of the expectations we’ve had all summer is that the return of Jim Harbaugh, in alliance with OC Greg Roman, would mean a return to ground-and-pound hard-nosed football. Justin Herbert and his pass-catcher were almost unanimously faded this draft season, and the uninspiring Gus Edwards was taken everywhere. The expectation for many was that the Chargers would grind opponents into a paste and that Edwards was the most likely guy on the roster to carry the bulk of the weight since Dobbins was returning from an Achilles tear just a year ago (following an ACL tear the season before).
After Round One, it isn’t even close. Edwards took 11 carries for a mediocre 26 yards. Dobbins broke free on chunk gains, compiling 135 yards and a TD on just ten carries. He was also the team’s primary receiving back. And considering the Chargers have never really acknowledged deep-league darling Kimani Vidal’s existence (he was inactive on Sunday), it seems like Dobbins has a clear runway to become entrusted with more and more work.
There are still medical concerns; the ramp-up may still come in smaller bites. Expect Dobbins to gain more and more of the workload as he proves his body can handle it. As the young line also rounds into form, look for some serious back-weighted production from Dobbins, who seems like he could be a big-time league winner in 2024.
Alexander Mattison Outsnapping Zamir White: MATTERS, BUT ALSO IT DOESN’T
Similar to Rhamondre Stevenson, Zamir White was taken in the dead zone, and many put a target on his back as in impending disappointment. The Raiders seem like a poor offense. White has never profiled as a high-end pass catcher, and while he had his moment in the sun late last year, he was still a late-round NFL draft pick that had taken time to gain a foothold.
Alexander Mattison took 36 snaps on Sunday; White took 23. White did get more rushing attempts, and he wasn’t a zero in this area. Mattison was pretty much exclusively the passing game back. There were a few hurdles White needed to overcome to work out at ADP: He needed the Raiders to be better than we think, and/or he needed to gain the passing downs. At this point, both appear to be a longshot for White after one game.
On the other hand, Mattison can’t be played with his workload either; so far, this matters for White but not Mattison.
Isaiah Likely’s Huge Game: MATTERS, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS YOU THINK
Our own Andy astutely pointed out that the Chiefs doubled Mark Andrews all night Thursday. They even tripled him on the play between Likely’s final two end-zone targets. According to Nathan Jahnke from PFF, Andrews was doubled in this game more than at any point in 2022 and 2023. Consequently, Likely received a 30% target share, and Andrews drew 5%. We tend to overreact to Week 1; seeing this type of usage, it is easy to think the sky is falling for Andrews and that Likely is a sudden superstar. The latter point is more likely than the former.
Likely gained a 32.8 FPOE in Week 1, making it the most efficient night of his career by almost four times. And it isn’t like he hasn’t had chances; Likely played many games a year ago in the same offense with the same QB, HC, and OC when Andrews wasn’t even on the field, and nothing like this happened. Still, there are a lot of positive indicators that he could be a breakout waiting to happen. We definitely can’t rule out that something significant is happening.
As for Andrews? He’s only 28, he’s had a longtime role with the same QB and HC in a similar offense, and he’s straight-up crushed it year after year. The most likely explanation is that he’s a tight end. Sometimes, they zero out. It happens to the best; this one occurred in Week 1, so it feels worse. The Ravens are probably going to base in 12-personnel, so Likely and Andrews will both be on the field a lot. Brighter days are ahead for the former fantasy TE1.
Najee Harris Dominating Touches: PROBABLY DOESN’T MATTER
The set-up is good for running backs in Pittsburgh with Arthur Smith in town; this is true. Harris broke free from backfield-mate and fantasy darling Jaylen Warren this first week by taking 20 carries and getting 38 snaps to Warren’s 22. Little passing work existed out of the backfield for Pittsburgh with Justin Fields at work instead of Russell Wilson. Fields won the game but didn’t shine as a passer, and the team was so sure of Wilson that they made him the captain before Week 1. With Wilson likely to return under center, there will be more short-area opportunities for backs. This remains an excellent role for Warren.
Warren is still returning from a hamstring injury, which many initially thought would keep him out into the season; maybe his physical presence in uniform and no setbacks should be viewed as positive because he’ll likely be ramped up and brought back into the fold sooner than we first thought. It isn’t as if Harris made a huge statement in his absence anyway.
Travis Etienne Splitting Carries with Tank Bigsby: MATTERS
Perhaps the biggest full-tilt revelation of the week for fantasy players was that Etienne and Tank Bigsby each drew 12 rushing attempts, with Bigsby (an honorary “my guy”) outpacing Etienne 73 yards to 44. This is cause for alarm; this coaching staff has been transparent that they would prefer Etienne not to operate as a featured back. The fact that Bigsby was woefully insufficient last year gave many confidence there would be little competition for touches in Jacksonville. If he demonstrates competency, the salad days may close for Etienne.
Bigsby should be a waiver add, and Etienne managers should continue to play him for now, but our ears are perked.
Keon Coleman and, to a lesser extent, Josh Allen’s Performance: MATTERS, BUT DON’T GO CRAZY
Allen was responsible for four TDs on Sunday, two of which came via the air and two via the ground. The fact that Allen continues to run for TDs is not surprising. What may have come as a relief for fantasy managers is that the Bills’ passing games still looked capable. When the Chiefs left their star QB with no one to throw to, he fell from an annual Top 2 QB to the QB7 in fantasy; many probably drew the line to Allen after the Bills traded Diggs in the off-season.
Coleman took the most snaps, ran the most routes, and earned the most targets. There is no way to see this as bad for drafters who hoped they could backdoor into the primary target for one of the best signal callers in the game. If that is you, you should breathe much easier today.
On the other hand, the Cardinals were 29th in the NFL in defensive EPA per dropback last year, and not much was done to make it any better. We probably shouldn’t read too much into the production itself just yet.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/2drE8Mj
No comments: