In this series of articles, I’ll be looking at the movers and shakers in every NFL backfield – division by division – and what that may mean for your best-ball, dynasty, and re-draft rosters as training camps start to open this week!
We are on to our penultimate division in the AFC, and this time we are heading all the way to the Atlantic coastline to shine the spotlight on the fantasy behemoths of the AFC East…but don’t worry, we will be talking about the New England Patriots and the New York Jets as well. After a season which saw James Cook lead the league in rushing TDs, Miami’s offense crash back to reality in a big way, and the Jets…well, the Jets just be the Jets – 2025 is bound to see some positive regression, some negative regression, and in some cases, a whole load of fantasy depression.
Let’s dive right in!
Buffalo Bills (13-4)
2024 RB Statistics
| Player | ATT | YDS | Y/A | Rush Share (%) | TD | TGT | REC | YDS | TD |
| James Cook | 207 | 1009 | 4.87 | 57.34% | 16 | 38 | 32 | 258 | 2 |
| Ray Davis | 113 | 442 | 3.91 | 31.30% | 3 | 19 | 17 | 189 | 3 |
| Ty Johnson | 41 | 213 | 5.20 | 11.36% | 1 | 25 | 18 | 284 | 3 |
| TOTAL | 361 | 1664 | 20 | 82 | 67 | 731 | 8 |
PLAYERS IN: Darrynton Evans (FA – on Bears in 2024)
PLAYERS OUT: NONE
Holy positive regression, Batman! After totaling just nine all-purpose TDs in his first two seasons in the NFL, Buffalo’s James Cook exploded in 2024, finding the end zone on no fewer than eighteen occasions as a third-year pro. His sixteen scores on the ground were T-1st at the position with Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs, resulting in an overall increase of a whopping 700% on the efforts of his previous two years. If these trends continue…AAAYYY! Ok, just like Disco came to an abrupt end in the 70s, Cook’s league-leading TD production will also likely come to a shuddering halt in the not-too-distant future. The former Georgia Bulldog scored on a stat-shattering 7.7% of his rushing attempts – to put that into context, no other RB with 100+ carries topped the 6.5% mark, with only the Lions tandem of the aforementioned Gibbs (6.4%) and David Montgomery (6.49%) coming anywhere close to Cook’s level of scoring efficiency. Sure, an argument could be made that Dalvin’s baby brother faced far less competition for touches in the Bills’ RB room than Messrs Gibbs and Montgomery did in Detroit (sorry Ray Davis, but you ain’t no David Mopportunity) but we’re forgetting the very talented, very handsome and overall very excellent Elephant in the room (or should that be a stallion?); the National Football League’s Most Valuable Player, Mr. Josh Allen.
This series of articles is supposed to focus purely on the backfields of each team in the NFL, but much like when we discussed the AFC North a couple of weeks ago, it would be remiss of us not to consider Buffalo’s do-it-all QB as a major part of the team’s ground attack. For the sixth year in a row, Allen ran the ball over 100 times, and whilst his 5.2 Y/A isn’t quite the 6.6 Y/A put up by Lamar Jackson, his twelve rushing TDs were three times that of the previous year’s MVP. With Allen under-center, James Cook’s upside in terms of volume is always likely going to be capped in comparison to workhorses like Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry, who, despite also having elite rushing QBs alongside them, operate as part of offenses that significantly favor the run. The Eagles (56.3%) and the Ravens (53.5%) led the league in rush plays last season with 621 and 554, respectively. In contrast, Buffalo operated on a far more even split between air and ground attack, running the ball on only 491 occasions (49.3%).
Whilst Cook is unlikely to see the volume of other top-tier options at the position, the fact remains he is still the undisputed alpha-dog in upstate New York after an off-season which saw very little personnel movement pertaining to this backfield. Ray Davis enters his sophomore year as Cook’s clear handcuff off the back of a rookie campaign that saw the 4th round pick put up a handful of fantasy-relevant performances. Ty Johnson is still hanging around on this roster and will likely continue to frustrate Cook managers through his usage on third downs and in the passing game. As we enter training camp, be sure to monitor Buffalo’s No.1 rusher’s attendance – he has made his desire for a new contract well known, and we may experience some kind of holdout from the former 63rd overall pick. It’s likely to be nothing, but worth keeping an eye on.
Miami Dolphins (8-9)
2024 RB Statistics
| Player | ATT | YDS | Y/A | Rush Share (%) | TD | TGT | REC | YDS | TD |
| De’Von Achane | 203 | 907 | 4.47 | 54.57% | 6 | 87 | 78 | 592 | 6 |
| Raheem Mostert | 85 | 278 | 3.27 | 22.85% | 2 | 23 | 19 | 161 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 68 | 249 | 3.66 | 18.28% | 0 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | 16 | 57 | 3.56 | 4.30% | 0 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 372 | 1491 | 8 | 119 | 103 | 780 | 6 |
PLAYERS IN: Alexander Mattison (FA – on Raiders in 2024), Ollie Gordon II (6th Round – pick 179)
PLAYERS OUT: Raheem Mostert (FA to Raiders), Jeff Wilson Jr. (FA)
It may not have felt like it (especially if you had him on your fantasy team), but De’Von Achane – Miami’s speedy second-year back – quietly dinked and dunked his way to an overall RB7 finish in 2024 despite the Dolphins’ anaemic output as an attacking unit. Coming off a 2023 season which saw the men from South Beach finish as the top scoring team in all of football, Mike McDaniel’s fast-paced, high-flying, free-scoring offense struggled to consistently replicate their fantasy-friendly performances, ending the year T-25th in total TDs with the 4-13 Jacksonville Jaguars.
If you’ve already purchased the Ultimate Draft Kit (and if you haven’t…why not?), then you will be well aware that Achane’s fantasy relevance depended largely on one simple factor, Tua Tagovailoa’s presence under center. In games where Miami’s $212m man took the field, Achane was the RB3 in FPPG (19.5) behind only Saquon Barkley (21.2) and Jahmyr Gibbs (19.8); however, when Tua was sidelined, the former 3rd round pick saw his output nose-dive off a cliff to a mere 7.7 FPPG – just 0.3 higher than Poopiest Pants Footie Award Winner Travis Etienne…woof! However, with Tagovailoa seemingly fit and healthy entering his sixth season in South Florida – and McDaniel still calling the shots (for now anyway) – fantasy managers will be hopeful they see more of the De’Von Achane that last year led the league in RB receptions (78) and TDs (6) as the former Texas A&M Aggie he enters his third year as an NFL pro.
Predicting just what this offense will be in 2025 could prove problematic given the hot and cold nature of primary WRs Tyreek Hill (WR23) and Jaylen Waddle (WR46), as well as the departure of the overall TE4 from last season, Jonnu Smith. What may be easier to forecast, however, is De’Von Achane’s significant role in the passing game moving forward. With Smith vacating a whopping 111 short-yardage targets from the king of “behind the line” passing Tua Tagovailoa, and only recently un-retired Darren Waller being brought in to plug the gap, it feels fairly safe to speculate that Achane will continue to see a league-leading number of targets at the RB position. Sophomore Jaylen Wright will look to pay back some of the draft capital Miami invested in him after trading up to select him in the 4th round last year, but after one of the most inefficient rookie rushing seasons in the last decade, we may see Ollie Gordon – a 6th round selection from April – push the second-year Wright for snaps. My name is Jeff Wilson has departed, with 2023 fantasy darling Raheem Mostert playing swapsies with former Las Vegas Raider Alexander Mattison, who now finds himself in Miami. Achane is the only back worth rostering in South Florida, just pray Tua stays upright and plays all seventeen this time around.
New England Patriots (4-13)
2024 RB Statistics
| Player | ATT | YDS | Y/A | Rush Share (%) | TD | TGT | REC | YDS | TD |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 207 | 801 | 3.87 | 57.50% | 7 | 41 | 33 | 168 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 120 | 538 | 4.48 | 33.33% | 1 | 29 | 23 | 206 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 20 | 69 | 3.45 | 5.56% | 0 | 12 | 10 | 59 | 1 |
| Terrell Jennings | 13 | 33 | 2.54 | 3.61% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 360 | 1441 | 8 | 82 | 66 | 433 | 2 |
PLAYERS IN: TreVeyon Henderson (2nd Round – pick 38), Trayveon Williams (FA – on Bengals in 2024)
PLAYERS OUT: JaMycal Hasty (FA)
To borrow a term from Gen Z, the New England Patriots’ run game in 2024 was very “mid”. For those of us born prior to Y2K, that roughly translates as “average, mediocre, or of low quality”…so yeah, “mid” works. If we were trying to put a positive spin on things, we could say that the Pats scored just as many rushing TDs as the 9-8 Bengals, and two more than the 14-3 Vikings – but the ugly truth is New England’s 11 total trips to the end-zone via the run game ranked T-25th across the league, and unfortunately for them wasn’t backed up by a top-10 passing offense like the aforementioned Cincinnati and Minnesota, they were, in fact, a little further down the pegging order at 31st.
Entering the year, there was an air of optimism and excitement surrounding lead back Rhamondre Stevenson – after all this was a guy who had just signed a 4-year, $36 million contract extension during the off-season, and was just twelve months removed from a campaign which saw him finish as the overall RB11 for fantasy…exiting the year however was a whole other story. The Round Mound of (occasional) TDs couldn’t have asked for a much better start to the season, back-to-back finishes of RB5 and RB13 saw the former 4th round pick sit as the overall RB9 through the opening two weeks…but that was as good as it got for Rhamondre and the optimism and excitement that hung over the pre-season, soon turned sour and putrid following finishes at RB80 and RB41 in weeks 3 and 4. Despite three more weekly finishes in the top-10, Stevenson struggled for any kind of consistency in a somewhat toothless Pats offense, ending the season at RB28 on a FPPG basis, equalling his 2023 mark of 10.6 points-per-game. Career lows of 3.9 Y/A on the ground and only 5.1 Y/C in the passing game proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back for the New England front office, and just one year on from signing the 5th largest contract amongst active NFL RBs…Rhamondre’s days as a starter in Foxborough look to be over.
So if Stevenson is out, who’s in? Well, first, let’s do some housekeeping. The team’s RB2 in volume – but overall RB1 in efficiency – Antonio Gibson still has another two years left on his $11.25m deal, and with a $4.5m cap hit, GibSZN appears to be far from over just yet. The former Commander’s 4.5 Y/A may have been the best on the team, but the likelihood of Gibby seeing anywhere near the 120 carries he received last season is almost non-existent, making him largely irrelevant for your fantasy team. Ok, if Rhamondre isn’t the starter and Gibson is to be a bit-part player, just who is taking on the lion’s share of carries in this offense? Enter TreVeyon Henderson. Usually, here at Ballers’ HQ, we like to say “follow the money,” but in the case of this Patriots backfield, we’re going to have to make an exception. Rhamondre may have gotten the bag, but as an early 2nd round pick by new Head Coach Mike Vrabel, the rookie out of Ohio State definitely has the upper hand in the race to sit atop the depth chart come the Pats’ season opener at home to the Raiders. Henderson can do it all and was largely touted as the best overall back in this year’s draft class behind Ashton Jeanty. Expect the former Buckeye to be heavily involved as a rusher and in the passing game from the get-go. All three Ballers have the 38th overall pick eclipsing the 1,000 all-purpose yards mark in his debut year, with one of the guys projecting a very spicy 1,250-yard, 9 TD season for the explosive 22-year-old back. Trayveon Williams (that’s Trayveon with an a as well as a small v) rounds out this backfield as a free agency acquisition following his release from the Bengals.
New York Jets (5-12)
2024 RB Statistics
| Player | ATT | YDS | Y/A | Rush Share (%) | TD | TGT | REC | YDS | TD |
| Breece Hall | 209 | 876 | 4.19 | 63.14% | 5 | 76 | 57 | 483 | 3 |
| Braelon Allen | 92 | 334 | 3.63 | 27.79% | 2 | 27 | 19 | 148 | 1 |
| Isaiah Davis | 30 | 174 | 5.80 | 9.06% | 1 | 12 | 9 | 75 | 1 |
| TOTAL | 331 | 1384 | 8 | 115 | 85 | 706 | 5 |
PLAYERS IN: Donovan Edwards (UDFA)
PLAYERS OUT: NONE
The Jets may have only ran for a total of 1,561 yards in 2024 – the second fewest in the league only behind the Raiders – but fantasy managers looking to invest in this backfield can take solace in the fact, that unlike Las Vegas (whose RBs accounted for a mere 67% of their team’s total rushing output) the RBs on the New York Football Jets were responsible for a whopping 89% of all yards on the ground for Gang Green last season. It may have been a relatively down year for Breece Hall and company, but as long as the J-E-T-S continue to labour away with a static pocket-passer at the QB position, there’s a great chance 2025 could be the year we see Breece Lightning record his first-ever 1,000-yard season. Wait, the Jets signed Justin Fields to a two-year, $40m deal? The same Justin Fields who has more 1,000-yard rushing seasons in his career than the aforementioned Breece Hall? The same Justin Fields who, as a QB, has only 244 fewer yards on the ground over the last three seasons than the team’s lead RB Breece Hall? (and in two fewer games, I may add). The same Justin Fields who just three years ago ran for 342 more yards on 41 fewer carries than a then-25-year-old David Montgomery in Chicago? Oh, brother, this is going to be fun.
All jokes aside, there’s a reason Breece has his lowest ever ranking in this year’s Ultimate Draft Kit, and that reason is the man, who despite only having one career finish inside the top-15 for fantasy, sits 4th in rushing yards at the position over the last four seasons. Justin Fields isn’t exactly a prototypical QB, and his propensity to scramble will undoubtedly impact the number of rushing opportunities Breece Hall and second-year back Braelon Allen see each week…but with Fields also coming off a campaign which saw him rank as the QB2 in overall check-down rates, there will still be plenty of work for Breece as he enters the final year of his rookie contract.
2024 may have seen Hall post the lowest Y/A (4.2) and fewest FPPG (13.3) of his three-year stint as a pro, but his overall snap share (72%) and share of RB targets (73%) last time out were both career highs. This was in spite of the introduction of 4th-rounder Allen to the mix, casting some pre-season doubt on the former 2nd-rounder’s credentials as the undisputed leader of this backfield. Despite showing some early season promise (remember that RB8 performance in week 2?) Braelon Allen largely failed to live up to his post-draft hype throughout his debut year in New Jersey and will likely spend his sophomore season acting as nothing more than a change of pace back for Hall, floating on waiver wires as one of several high-value handcuffs alongside the Blake Corum’s and Trey Benson’s of the world. With only UDFA Donovan Edwards being added to the roster following the Draft, expect Breece Hall to once again handle upwards of 70% of the backfield opportunities for this team, although just how many touches that actually materializes into with Fields under center remains to be seen.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/pEqa3l0
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