This yearly article series highlights WRs currently ranked outside of Andy, Mike, and Jason’s top 15, breaking down what would need to happen for them to finish inside the top 12.
Mike Evans is currently ranked as the WR20 by the Fantasy Footballers, and his consensus ADP sits exactly there as well, making him a fourth-round pick. He’s a player who has never failed to surpass the 1,000-yard mark in any of his 11 seasons in the league. In fact, he finished as the WR5 and WR9 over the past two years. Given all of this, we should definitely be asking why the fantasy community is treating him like he is done, and explore what needs to happen for Evans to crack the top 12 once again.
So let’s take a look at his most recent season to find some answers. And don’t forget to check out the full statistical projections for the Fantasy Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2025 Path to WR1 Series Primer.
2024 Season Recap
Last season started slowly for Mike Evans. Over the first seven weeks, he averaged just 6.4 targets per game, a number that’s actually inflated by one game in which he saw 14. Then he missed three weeks due to injury and returned after the team’s Week 11 bye. From Week 12 on, he averaged 9.2 targets per game, including several double-digit performances.
This uptick in volume was partly due to Chris Godwin being out for the rest of the season with a dislocated ankle. However, it also reminded us that, even at age 31, Evans still had what it takes to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark and that he had strong chemistry with Baker Mayfield.
He finished the season as the overall WR11, though it came with a fair amount of volatility. Of the 14 games he played, he finished inside the top 12 six times, didn’t land a single time in WR2 territory, and had four weeks outside the top 36, entering WR4 territory and beyond.
| 2024 Weekly Rank | Finishes |
| WR1 (1-12) | 6 |
| WR2 (13-24) | 0 |
| WR3 (25-36) | 4 |
| WR4 (37-48) | 2 |
| WR5 (49-60) | 0 |
| 60+ | 2 |
The Path For 2025
Mike Evans turns 32 this year. The good news for the Buccaneers is that not much has changed in their offensive environment. The most relevant update might be the addition of rookie WR Emeka Egbuka, whom we’ll discuss in a moment. But this offense is essentially returning intact, and they’re ready to run it back with what worked best last year.
The big question is: Which version of this offense will we get? The one from the first half of the year, or the one from after the bye week? Let’s break down the relevant variables to see what we can reasonably expect from Mike Evans in 2024.
Routes
Looking at route data is always helpful when evaluating a receiver’s opportunity outlook. The more routes a WR runs, the more chances they’ll have to earn a target, and if they create separation, those targets are more likely to result in receptions.
In 2024, Evans participated in 82.7% of routes, which is not an ideal number. He ranked 50th in total routes run among all WRs, although he did miss three games. If we examine 2023, when he played every game, that number increases to 92.8%, providing a more accurate representation of his actual involvement.
More importantly, his route efficiency remains elite. Last season, he was targeted on 28.1% of the routes he ran — well above the 20% threshold that our editor-in-chief Kyle Borgognoni notes as a requirement to finish as a WR2 or better (based on data since 2006). Safe to say: Mike Evans is still an elite target earner.
Target Share
Evans commanded a 24.1% target share last year. That might seem decent at first glance, but we have to consider the mouths to feed in Tampa Bay, and more importantly, how the offense changed post-bye week when Godwin went down.
That leads us to the first big question: Will Chris Godwin be fully healthy after his ankle dislocation? In the first seven games, not only was Godwin stealing the show, but he was also leading the NFL in receptions and ranked as the WR2 overall in fantasy during that span. He was having a career year. But when Evans took over, he reminded everyone why he’s still one of the best and helped lead the Bucs to the playoffs. Which version of this offense will we see?
Then there is rookie WR Emeka Egbuka. He’s a promising player, but he’s unlikely to command major volume right away unless Godwin isn’t 100% recovered from his injury. We’ve seen this kind of situation before with highly touted rookies joining crowded WR rooms. Think Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Seattle or Rome Odunze in Chicago. Egbuka will have to wait for his turn. Besides, his skill set is more similar to Godwin’s than Evans’s, so he might be viewed more as insurance for Godwin than a target threat.
Jalen McMillan also flashed late in the season, but his involvement will largely depend on the health of the other WRs. Right now, Evans has the most secure role as the healthiest of the proven veterans, and his target share should remain steady.
Receptions and Catch Rate
There’s definite room for improvement here. Evans caught 74 of his 110 targets, a catch rate of just 67.2%. That’s not great. But to be fair, only 82 of those targets were deemed catchable. So the blame isn’t all on him.
Still, Baker Mayfield remains the QB, and while the chemistry is evident, he’ll need to improve the quality of his throws if he wants to help his WR1 replicate another top-tier fantasy finish.
Yards & aDOT
While Evans barely hit the 1,000-yard mark, his efficiency tells a different story. He ranked 13th in yards per route run and 14th in yards per team pass attempt. He also had a 38.5% share of his team’s air yards, a top-10 mark among WRs, which shows just how valuable his targets were.
His average depth of target (aDOT) was 11.6, the lowest of his career. That might raise some age-related concerns, but considering his route-running remains elite, we could easily see a bounce back to his usual 13-yard aDOT.
Receiving Yards
As we mentioned earlier, Evans has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in every single one of his 11 NFL seasons. Last year was his second-lowest total, which might be a concern for some. But let’s not forget he only played 14 games. There’s not much to worry about here. Yardage usually correlates with TDs, and that’s one area where Mike Evans never disappoints.
TDs
Of the four core metrics (targets, receptions, receiving yards, and TDs) that Kyle Borgognoni outlined in this offseason’s Path to a WR1 Season Primer as thresholds to hit when projecting a WR1 season, Evans only clears the TD mark. But don’t let this make you think less of him. He has become an absolute scoring machine, leading the NFL in receiving TDs over the past two seasons.
Yes, we all know TDs are the least sticky of fantasy stats, but they still paint a picture. And that picture shows Evans as one of the most trusted red-zone weapons in the game. Last season, he saw 15 red-zone targets and scored 11 TDs on them. That’s not luck. That’s skill and chemistry.
Conclusion
There’s no real reason to believe Mike Evans is entering the twilight of his career. His WR20 ADP doesn’t make much sense when you look at what he did last year and how similar this offense looks this season.
His red-zone dominance, route-running prowess, separation ability, and unbroken 1,000-yard streak still make him one of the most reliable WRs in the league. Sure, there will be volatility, as it happens in every team with two WRs of Evans and Godwin’s caliber. But Evans’ path to another WR1 season isn’t nearly as complicated as his ADP suggests.
Don’t let the ageists fool you. Take the value.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/qIUCFMK
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