Too Hot to Handle! + Risk vs Reward

Fantasy Football show for July 1, 2025. Rising temperatures and draft costs! Find out which players are “too hot to handle” in 2025 fantasy football drafts! Jayden Daniels, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Omarion Hampton, and others discussed. Plus, reactions to Jonnu Smith traded to the Steelers and more! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.

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Summary:

Show Updates and Structure 00:01

“We are moving to three shows a week for the rest of July and five shows a week starting in August.”

• The hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright, are excited to return after their annual summer vacations. They recorded episodes in advance to ensure that fans would not miss any shows during their time away.
• Beginning July 4th, the podcast will transition from one episode a week to three episodes weekly for the rest of July, and starting in August, it will ramp up to five episodes per week, aligning with the NFL season.

Fantasy Football Tools and Features 03:21

“The draft analyzer has launched.”

• The hosts announce the launch of the updated draft analyzer for those who have purchased the Ultimate Draft Kit (UDK Plus) or are part of the Ultimate Foot Clan.
• This tool allows users to evaluate their fantasy draft options and make adjustments based on their league’s specifics. Users can import their teams and receive grades, with the added ability to analyze their league’s dynamics, including opponents’ rosters and weaknesses.
• They note with a hint of humor that the tool exposes the struggling state of Andy’s dynasty team as part of his rebuilding strategy.

Impact of Trades and Player Analysis 06:39

“Johnnie Smith was traded after a career-best year in Miami.”

• A major trade involved tight end Johnnie Smith who moved to the Pittsburgh Steelers, sparking discussions about how this affects the league and fantasy dynamics.
• The hosts highlight that while Smith will be a target in Pittsburgh’s offense, it may have negative repercussions for both his and Pat Fryermuth’s fantasy value due to shared target volume.
• They also discuss how Smith’s trade opens up opportunities for Dolphins players like Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddell, and Devon Achan, as Johnnie Smith’s departure will shift the target distribution in Miami’s offense.
• The potential signing of Darren Waller as a replacement for Smith carries uncertain implications, as the hosts predict he won’t replicate Smith’s previous production levels.

Jonnu Smith‘s Versatility and Fantasy Implications 10:05

“Johnnie’s better. He’s a better player, and he’s more versatile. He does more things.”

• Johnnie Smith’s versatility on the field allows him to take on various roles, making him a strong asset for the team. He can receive passes behind the line of scrimmage, carry the ball, and even line up as a fullback, providing the coaching staff with additional tactical options.
• His presence complicates the fantasy landscape for other players, particularly tight ends, suggesting that they might not have consistent starting roles. This unpredictability can be frustrating for fantasy players trying to determine which tight end to start weekly.

Tight End Dilemma in Fantasy Football 10:20

“We deleted both tight ends. Both of those tight ends seem like they’re not going to be week-to-week starts.”

• The current tight end situation appears murky for fantasy players, as neither player seems poised to secure a weekly starting spot. This inconsistency makes it challenging to predict who will perform well from week to week.
• This issue extends to the running back situation as well, with Caleb Johnson’s role remaining uncertain. Potential tight ends like Pat Fryermuth might struggle to find sufficient targets since both tight ends will likely split opportunities, further diluting their individual fantasy value.

Changes in the Dolphins’ Passing Game 11:58

“The initial reaction for me was consolidation of targets.”

• With the addition of notable players like Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddell, and Devon Achan to the Dolphins’ roster, there is an anticipated consolidation of targets within the team. This shift may benefit players like Achan, as they will likely see increased opportunities.
• The tight end usage within the Dolphins’ offense has varied significantly, showing a move from a low target share to an increased reliance on tight ends. However, fantasy players hope that this change will not detract from the more prominent receivers on the team.

Tight End Rankings and Projections 14:03

“Waller… I see as… probably tight end 13 to 20, something in that range.”

• The recent acquisition of Darren Waller will impact the tight end projections in fantasy leagues, as he is expected to slot into the rankings between tight end 13 and 20. This positioning is significant since tight ends beyond the top tier often have minimal fantasy impact.
• The shift in how tight ends are utilized in the Dolphins’ system could present challenges for emerging players; thus, projecting the true breakout potential may be more difficult than before.

Updates on Players and Contracts 14:45

“There’s quite a gap between the Commanders and Terry McLaurin.”

• Reports indicate a significant gap in contract negotiations between the Commanders and Terry McLaurin, which could affect his future with the team. Given his value as a team leader, both his production and age will weigh heavily on negotiations.
• The importance of getting a deal done might center around not only McLaurin’s on-field performance but also his role within the locker room, emphasizing the complexity of player negotiations in the current landscape.

Potential Busts in Fantasy Football Drafts 19:19

“We’re going to talk about some players that are looking maybe too hot to handle at their current average draft positions.”

• In fantasy football, understanding the value of players based on their Average Draft Position (ADP) is crucial. Players drafted too high may not return the value expected, making it a risky move for fantasy managers.
• The discussion primarily focuses on the concept of opportunity cost—if you select a player who has a high ceiling at their ADP, they need to perform at their maximum potential to justify that pick. Otherwise, it can lead to disappointment.
• Historical examples illustrate the pitfalls of drafting players too early. For instance, selecting Baker Mayfield when he was surrounded by stars could lead one to expect significant performance that ultimately didn’t come to fruition.

Evaluating Jaden Daniels as a High Draft Pick 20:43

“Jaden Daniels is being drafted higher than any other sophomore quarterback in fantasy football history.”

• Jaden Daniels is currently being drafted as the quarterback three, despite finishing as the quarterback five last year. His impressive stats include considerable rushing attempts, crucial for fantasy scoring.
• The conversation examines whether it’s wise to compare Daniels to C.J. Stroud, noting that they have different playing styles and that just because a player is in their second year doesn’t guarantee improved performance.
• There’s skepticism about Daniels repeating his previous success due to a more difficult second-year schedule, suggesting that while he could achieve significant stats, it’s not probable. Looking at alternatives, like waiting to draft a quarterback, can also prove beneficial since late-round options may offer better overall value.

The Risks of Jared Goff‘s Draft Position 26:56

“Jared Goff is the only quarterback to finish in the top ten each of the last three years.”

• Despite his impressive track record, Jared Goff is being drafted higher than ever before, raising concerns about whether this price reflects his actual consistency and reliability as a starter in fantasy leagues.
• Critics argue that Goff’s success may not be sustainable, especially considering changes within the Lions’ offensive setup. Goff may have had elite performances but often lacks the consistency required to be a dependable starter throughout the season.
• The comparison extends to other quarterbacks like Bo Nix or Kyler Murray, highlighting that these players are perceived to show more upside or reliability compared to Goff, who might be too “hot to handle” at his current ADP.

Evaluating Jared Goff‘s Fantasy Viability 28:45

“I can’t imagine that I want to spend an eighth round pick on Jared Goff.”

• In the discussion about Jared Goff‘s fantasy football potential, the speakers reflect on his season performance and consistency. While Goff may finish with a good season total, concerns arise over his ability to be a difference maker each week.
• Goff is viewed skeptically, as his past records show he has been a top 12 quarterback for six consecutive years, often finishing around QB 10. However, the analysis emphasizes that he lacks the consistent ability to secure wins for fantasy teams.
• There is hesitation around drafting Goff in the eighth round in favor of more reliable options. The consensus suggests he is unlikely to serve as a dependable every-week starter, thus deeming him a risky selection at that stage in the draft.

Potential and Risks of Amari and Hampton 30:30

“He is a perfect running back prospect who was drafted in the first round to a team that wants to run the ball.”

• Amari and Hampton is highlighted as a promising running back who stands out for his skill set, versatility, and excellent blocking ability. Being a three-down back, he could fill multiple roles, including goal-line short yardage and pass-catching tasks.
• Despite his strengths, concerns linger about the existing competition with Najee Harris on the roster. Although Hampton is viewed as the more explosive player, there is uncertainty regarding his opportunity to be the starting back.
• The discussion reflects on how rookie running backs can make significant impacts, yet the timing of Hampton’s ascension to a lead role remains uncertain, potentially leading to a timeshare situation.

Drafting Strategy Insights 36:57

“Being drafted as running back 29 is… basically what his floor is.”

• The conversation shifts to DeAndre Swift, another running back experiencing a rise in fantasy drafts. Although some view his average draft position as unjustifiably low given his career performance, there’s a split in opinion on his drafting desirability.
• While one speaker expresses reluctance to draft Swift due to concerns about his upside and consistency, another points out that his true value reflects a positive opportunity for fantasy managers, especially considering his career stats.
• The dialogue emphasizes the strategic decisions fantasy players face regarding rookie running backs versus established veterans, showcasing the contrasting views on drafting priorities within fantasy football.

Evaluating Running Backs: DeAndre Swift’s Potential 38:47

“He was RB19 last year with a bad offensive line and no offensive coordinator.”

• The discussion begins by reflecting on DeAndre Swift’s performance from the previous season, where he ranked as RB19 despite facing significant challenges, including a poor offensive line and lack of clear offensive guidance.
• The potential exists for Swift to elevate his performance, and participants speculate that he could break into the top 12 running backs if improvements are made.
• However, his inconsistency and past health issues are highlighted as ongoing concerns that could limit his upside.

Comparisons with Other Players 39:43

“Would you rather have Najee on your team or Swift?”

• The dialogue shifts to comparing DeAndre Swift with other running backs like Najee Harris and Bryan Robinson.
• There is a consensus that both Harris and Robinson may be preferable options over Swift, indicating a lack of confidence in Swift’s ability to perform consistently.
• Participants note alternative players, including Jalen Warren and Caleb Johnson, emphasizing a range of options available that may deliver better results.

The Case for Jackson Smith and Jigba’s Potential 40:14

“He finishes the wide receiver 10.”

• Jackson Smith and Jigba’s ability as a wide receiver is put under scrutiny, particularly referencing his impressive finish as wide receiver 10 the previous year while playing alongside established talent like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
• Expectations are relatively high as he enters his third year, suggesting a potential for significant improvement and contributions that could align with being drafted as wide receiver 12.
• Key data points indicate that historically, year-2 breakouts are often overvalued, which could affect Smith and Jigba’s ADP.

Risks and Opportunity in Year 2 Breakout Players 40:59

“The year 2 player, we all say he could be the new one.”

• The conversation navigates the common belief that year-2 breakout players often bring optimistic projections, but statistically, the chances of meeting or exceeding expectations are only around 42%.
• The risk involved in drafting such players early hinges on their performance trajectory, particularly if they are expected to evolve into top-tier rank players.
• This data-driven caution serves to inform potential fantasy football decisions surrounding picks in this range.

The Uncertainty Surrounding Travis Hunter‘s Role 44:52

“Is he going to be out there for 55% of the snaps and then also playing cornerback?”

• The focus shifts to rookie Travis Hunter, outlining concerns regarding his dual role as both a wide receiver and cornerback, which could complicate his fantasy potential.
• Participants discuss whether Hunter can maintain a consistent role that maximizes his skills without being pulled in multiple directions based on team needs.
• The conversation highlights the perceived risk versus reward when considering Hunter in later rounds, marking him as a potentially valuable yet ambiguous choice.

Player Ranking Considerations 48:46

“And the best part is this ambiguity might keep him there come August.”

• The discussion revolves around the potential ambiguity in player rankings within fantasy drafts, particularly concerning the positioning of Travis Hunter and Roman Dunze. As both players are closely ranked, their value will significantly depend on team offensive strategies and utilization during the offseason.
• The sentiment is that neither player is seen as a definitive number one choice, which adds to the uncertainty in drafting. The consensus leans toward maintaining flexibility with Hunter’s status as the offseason progresses.

Comparison of Rookie Tight Ends 50:01

“Tyler Warren is so talented.”

• Tyler Warren has emerged as a top-tier rookie tight end, currently ranked as tight end 11 while being drafted in the ninth round. This position is historically significant, as it marks one of the highest draft spots for rookie tight ends.
• The speakers reflect on past drafts and decisions made regarding tight ends, specifically referencing Brock Bowers‘ prior draft year and how unexpected choices were made, contributing to the discussion on drafting strategies.
• The potential for Warren to become a key target in his team’s offense excites the analysts, asserting that his skillset makes him a worthy choice among tight ends in this competitive draft class.

Tight End Draft Strategy Insights 51:46

“Once you’re tight end seven, you’re irrelevant.”

• A strategic approach to drafting tight ends is emphasized, noting that players ranked beyond a certain threshold lose significant value, making them less relevant in the context of fantasy football.
• The analysts discuss the need to take calculated risks on tight ends after a certain point, suggesting that drafting a player like Warren could be a smart move given the unpredictability associated with other rookie tight ends and their roles on their respective teams.
• Potential upside is acknowledged for various other rookie tight ends, indicating a deep class that could yield useful fantasy players beyond the conventional top options.

from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/eWJ8CL6