Welcome back to our Dynasty Ultimatums series! Over the past couple of seasons, this series has focused on players at a career crossroads, highlighting those on the verge of pivotal fantasy seasons and assessing their dynasty outlook. For the first time in the history of this series, every featured TE from last year’s article ended up failing to meet their ultimatum requirements. It was a perfect sell-high opportunity for those who moved early. Most of these names hold little to no value heading into 2025, though a few showed just enough to leave the door open for redemption.
The 2024 group included Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Chig Okonkwo, and Greg Dulcich. Pitts led the pack with a TE15 finish, but that still fell well short of his top-5 ultimatum. It is becoming clear he is not the player he was drafted to be, and the fantasy community is finally catching on. Fant and Dulcich missed badly, and neither looks likely to regain relevance. Goedert had a few relevant weeks but once again struggled with health, limiting his upside to a depth role rather than a reliable TE1. Okonkwo failed to meet his ultimatum, but finished strong with three top-7 weeks from Week 12 on. He will need to carry that momentum into 2025 to justify his rising dynasty value, especially in a contract year with a rookie QB under center.
As the 2025 NFL season approaches, it brings a host of questions about the fate of many notable players. For dynasty managers, maintaining realistic expectations for these controversial players is crucial. It can be tough to lose faith in players we once had high hopes for, but setting dynasty ultimatums can help us manage our rosters more effectively. In this article, we will explore controversial TEs entering make-or-break seasons, outlining the specific goals they must achieve to meet their current expectations.
Check out the first three articles from this series, featuring QBs, RBs, and WRs.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (29.8 y.o.)
Current Contract: Extension (2021-2025), 4 yr(s) / $56,000,000
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
For years, the TE landscape in fantasy football has been defined by two names: Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. But while Kelce is clearly in the twilight of his career, no one expected Andrews to show signs of major decline this soon. He is six years younger than Kelce and has not even hit 30 yet. Still, both took a noticeable step back last season, and Andrews, in particular, looked borderline unstartable in the first half.
Back-to-back goose eggs in Weeks 3 and 4 had fantasy managers wondering if we were witnessing an early and inexplicable fall-off. Meanwhile, Isaiah Likely exploded in Week 1 with nine catches for 111 yards and a TD, stirring concerns about a potential shift in the Ravens’ pecking order. Fortunately, Andrews salvaged his season with a baffling TD binge. Despite averaging just 3.2 catches per game, he scored a career-high 11 TDs and somehow finished as the TE5. From Week 10 on, he found the end zone every week except one, bailing out managers who stuck with him. But relying on him felt like serving time in a windowless jail cell: claustrophobic, unpredictable, and full of regret.
Although Likely was more involved than in past seasons, Andrews still led him by 11 targets and outproduced him in almost every major statistical category. Even so, his total of 69 targets was underwhelming. That number might get a “nice” from Jason on the podcast, but in reality, it was anything but. It ranked just 20th among all players at the position.
Andrews also crumbled when it mattered most. He mustered only 27 yards in a crucial Wild Card matchup against Pittsburgh. Then, in the Divisional Round, he lost a fumble and dropped a two-point conversion that sealed Baltimore’s fate. Fans immediately turned on him after the loss. And while he is still on the roster heading into 2025, it is safe to say the vibes are not exactly great.
With Lamar Jackson in his prime and playing at an MVP level, Baltimore projects to remain one of the league’s top offenses. But as always, the Ravens’ identity revolves around the run game, which makes their passing attack wildly unpredictable from week to week. That volatility could spell trouble for Andrews. If his usage mirrors what we saw last season, he is a prime candidate for major TD regression. His 2024 finish was propped up by an outlier scoring run, and given his current role, it is hard to see him repeating that kind of production.
The presence of Likely looms large, and now the Ravens have a trio of capable wideouts: Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and newly signed DeAndre Hopkins, all ready to command a meaningful share of targets. Hopkins may not be in his prime anymore, but he is still a red-zone threat who could further eat into Andrews’ scoring chances.
If Andrews’ role stays the same and his TD total regresses, it is tough to envision him delivering a strong fantasy season. Making matters worse, Baltimore could move on from him after the season. And if that happens, there is no guarantee another team gives him a featured role.
That makes 2025 a defining year for Andrews. His ultimatum is to finish as a top-10 TE to maintain his dynasty value, something he has achieved in five of the last six seasons. But his TE5 finish last year was inflated by an unsustainable TD rate. Without that scoring spike, his season would have looked far less impressive.
Andrews still has strong name recognition, which makes this an ideal time to attempt to sell high. The signs of decline are already visible in his usage and efficiency, and that trading window might not stay open for long. He needs to prove last season was a blip on the radar, not the beginning of the end.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (29.9 y.o.)
Current Contract: Extension (2025-2026), 1 yr(s) / $12,000,000
Free Agent: 2027 / UFA
What a resurgent season it was for Jonnu Smith in 2024. After years of fantasy irrelevance, he finally delivered on the athleticism and potential that made him an intriguing and unique prospect. Smith has always had the speed and mobility to be a difference maker at TE, which briefly showed in 2020 when he finished as the TE11. Unfortunately, every other season in his career had been a disappointment for fantasy purposes. Following that breakout year, he signed with New England, where he was used more as a blocker while Hunter Henry took over the receiving work.
After his underwhelming time with the Patriots and a brief stint in Atlanta, Smith landed a fresh opportunity in Miami last season. While the year started slowly, his production exploded following the team’s Week 6 bye. From that point on, Smith was not only a featured part of the offense but also one of the most valuable fantasy TEs in the entire league. Over his final 12 games, he averaged 6.2 receptions on 7.5 targets for 62 yards and 0.67 TDs per game. That stretch included seven top-five finishes and four games over 85 receiving yards. He ended the season ranked fourth among TEs in yards (884), targets (111), and receptions (88), while tying for second at the position with eight TDs. He also finished as the TE1 twice, a feat achieved by only three other TEs.
| Player | Season | Team | GP | TGT | REC | YDS | REC TD |
| Tyreek Hill | 2024 | MIA | 17 | 123 | 81 | 959 | 6 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2024 | MIA | 17 | 111 | 88 | 884 | 8 |
| De’Von Achane | 2024 | MIA | 17 | 87 | 78 | 592 | 6 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2024 | MIA | 15 | 83 | 58 | 744 | 2 |
As impressive as that run was, it came with plenty of added context. After another concussion sidelined Tua Tagovailoa, Miami pivoted to a short-passing attack that played perfectly to Smith’s strengths. With Tyreek Hill battling injuries and Jaylen Waddle having a down year, the Dolphins leaned on Smith and De’Von Achane to carry the offense. By season’s end, Smith ranked second on the team in targets and was arguably Miami’s most impactful player down the stretch.
Despite all that, Miami did not view him as part of their long-term plans. In a surprise move, Smith was traded to Pittsburgh in a reunion with Arthur Smith, whose affection for Jonnu is bordering on obsession. Arthur was part of the Titans’ coaching staff when Smith entered the league, brought him to Atlanta during his tenure as head coach, and has now traded for him again as Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator. Whether it is a coincidence or a bond over a shared last name, one thing is clear: Arthur Smith loves Jonnu. But that love has not consistently translated into fantasy production.
Fantasy reactions to Jonnu Smith
PIT:
-Jonnu Smith
-Pat Freiermuth
-Jaylen Waddle
-Tyreek Hill
-De'Von Achane
-Aaron Rodgers: potentially
-Arthur Smith:pic.twitter.com/XRDYv7MN3p
— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) June 30, 2025
While you could argue that Smith has less target competition in Pittsburgh than he did in Miami, the situation is far from ideal. He will be sharing the field with DK Metcalf, Pat Freiermuth, and Calvin Austin. The Steelers are also expected to lean on the run game in 2025, and Arthur Smith’s offenses have rarely been fantasy-friendly. Veteran QB Aaron Rodgers could favor short passes and checkdowns, but there is also a real possibility that Jonnu is primarily valued for his blocking, which does not show up on fantasy box scores.
Given these factors, it is difficult to imagine Smith repeating his Cinderella season. Before the trade, he looked poised to re-sign with Miami and enter 2025 as one of the most coveted fantasy TEs. Now, his stock is falling fast. Could that reaction be a bit harsh? Maybe. But it also feels appropriate based on his new circumstances.
After finishing as the TE4 last year, expectations and value have risen significantly. In an attempt to sustain that value, Smith’s dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-12 TE in 2025. He is already nearly 30 years old, and despite that not being ancient for a TE, it feels older given how many of his seasons were lost in unfeatured roles.
It is up to Smith to prove last year was not a fluke and that he can maintain this level of play in a new offense. Personally, I would be extremely cautious in expecting a repeat. If someone in your league still believes in his talent and is not too worried about the move to Pittsburgh, now would be the time to sell high. We may have just witnessed the only season in Smith’s career where he truly got the chance to show what he is capable of, and that alone is a heartbreaking tragedy.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills (25.7 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2023-2027), 4 yr(s) / $13,427,023
Free Agent: 2028 / UFA
When a rookie TE selected in the first round flashes major potential, the fantasy community is going to take notice. Despite beginning his debut season behind Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid quickly made his presence felt, finishing among the top 10 TEs in both receptions and yards while recording seven top-12 weekly finishes. He and Sam LaPorta were the only rookie TEs to eclipse 100 fantasy points in 2023, a strong early indicator of what could come.
Although Kincaid finished as just the TE12 in his rookie year, he entered 2024 with a combination of talent and opportunity that few at the position could match. For starters, he was tied to one of the league’s best QBs in Josh Allen, giving him elite TD and yardage upside. Then came the blockbuster departure of Stefon Diggs, who left behind a massive 160 targets. Kincaid looked like the most reliable pass-catcher left standing and a prime candidate to absorb a significant chunk of that volume, which pushed his ADP up to 59.4 and made him the fifth TE selected in fantasy drafts heading into the 2024 season.
The rationale for drafting Kincaid at his inflated 2024 ADP was straightforward: a talented young TE, paired with an elite QB, and positioned to capitalize on a major opportunity gap in the offense. Given his strong rookie year and the favorable situation in front of him, Kincaid looked poised to make a big leap in 2024 and become a difference-maker at one of fantasy football’s toughest positions to fill.
Unfortunately, those who banked on Kincaid making a second-year leap ended up crashing hard. He finished the season as the TE29, averaging just six fantasy points per game. He recorded only one TE1 finish all year, and even that was inflated by a rare TD. Kincaid found the end zone just twice all season and never came close to becoming a reliable target in the Bills’ offense. Even when the volume was there, the efficiency was not. Kincaid caught only 59% of his 75 targets and posted an 8% drop rate, often squandering opportunities with either miscommunications or minimal yardage.
Allen and the Bills continued their trend of spreading the ball around, making it nearly impossible to predict which pass-catcher would benefit from week to week. Injuries were part of the story, but even when healthy, Kincaid looked more like a role player than a rising star. The Bills leaned heavily on the run game and frequently played with a lead, limiting the need for high-volume passing. In the end, Kincaid had everything working in his favor: an elite QB, a high-powered offense, and plenty of vacated targets up for grabs, yet he still failed to deliver. He was given the keys to a Ferrari, but stalled out before he ever got out of the driveway.
Heading into 2025, Buffalo’s receiving corps looks largely unchanged from last year. The Bills moved on from Amari Cooper, signed Joshua Palmer to a three-year deal, and added Elijah Moore on a one-year contract. Palmer has never developed into a true difference-maker, but he does bring a vertical element to the offense. Moore, meanwhile, had a resurgent year with the Browns and profiles as a reliable slot option.
That is where things get tricky for Kincaid. He does most of his damage over the middle of the field, and now he is competing for that real estate with not just Khalil Shakir, but also Moore. The short and intermediate areas are getting crowded. Knox is also still on the roster. While his role has been scaled back, he remains a red zone threat and will likely continue to vulture TD opportunities. Additionally, Kincaid is not consistently seeing the field as much as fantasy managers would like, largely due to Joe Brady’s persistent use of a TE-by-committee approach.
Given the high rookie draft capital dynasty managers spent to acquire Kincaid, 2025 feels like a make-or-break season. He dealt with a knee injury last year, so coming in fully healthy with another year of experience under his belt offers hope for a bounce-back. But even at just under 26 years old, the clock is ticking on Kincaid to prove he is the elite fantasy asset he was drafted to be.
We are setting a dynasty ultimatum for Kincaid to finish as a top-12 TE in 2025, the same finish he managed in his rookie year. If he can clear that bar, he will reestablish himself as a long-term TE1 option and prove that last season was just a bump in the road.
Personally, I think the truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes: the lofty expectations he entered 2024 with and the decreased value he now holds. That makes him a compelling buy-low candidate, even if he never evolves into the superstar many hoped for when he was drafted.
Get ready to dominate your draft with the 2025 Ultimate Draft Kit!
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/uYc1Fhs
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