Many of you probably know that TDs, as a statistic, are notoriously un-sticky from year to year. Consideration of this fact is becoming increasingly prevalent in the minds of fantasy managers. This is especially true for fantasy managers drafting Best Ball or prepping for redraft leagues. We can look at red zone data from various angles, and the UDK Redzone Report from the Fantasy Footballers is an excellent tool to hone your strategy.
Here is how to use Red Zone Report, what to look for in the data, and some revelations from the report.
Red Zone Report Usage
First, we need to get to the report. Once you go to “My UDK” from the main page (or just click the link), then go to “Research”> “Red Zone Report.”
The Redzone Report is broken down into passing, rushing, and receiving, with the passing and receiving reports displaying statistics for the Redzone and the 10-Zone. Because proximity to the end zone encourages more rushing, the rushing report focuses on the 10-yard zone and the 5-yard zone. Each report, which all feature sortable data, can be selected from the landing page, making our research easier.
Report Analysis
You should land on the Passing portion of the Red Zone Report. There is some basic help just under the banner titled “How to use the Red Zone Report” that provides quick guidance to get started.
Listed is the data that you can find in the report, with player usage stats from the red zone.
- Passing attempts for QBs
- Rushing attempts for RBs and QBs
- Targets for RBs, WRs, and TEs
Report Review – Basic Strategy
Now that you have the lay of the land, how do we dig deeper? Here are some tips when looking at the specific reports, so you can get the most out of this resource.
Passing/Receiving Reports
- Start by sorting opportunities (ATT/TGT) in descending order for the red zone.
- Scan for outliers in TDs for positive or negative regression candidates.
- Add the context of CMP% or CATCH% for additional insight (was the lack of success due to QB inaccuracy/WR inefficiency?).
- Compare observations to the 10-Zone data and note changes.
Rushing Report
- Begin the same way by sorting by 10-Zone ATT in descending order.
- Scan for outliers in TDs for positive or negative regression candidates.
- Add the context of TEAM%, which is the market share of attempts a player received on their per-game average for games played.
NOTE: There will be outliers with an outsized market share (For example, Michael Carter with a TEAM% of 100% when we know James Connor had most of the 10-Zone attempts). - Compare observations to the 5-Zone data and note changes (especially in TEAM%).
For the Data Nerds (Like Me)
The tool has plenty of sortable red zone data, but you may want to manipulate it for additional perspectives. At the top-right of any of the three reports, click “More” next to the “hamburger” icon (at least that’s what the three horizontal lines are called in my profession), and click “Download CSV.” You may need to rename some columns to differentiate between red zone, 10-Zone, and 5-Zone data. With this data in Excel (or your preferred spreadsheet software), you can utilize formulas to calculate additional metrics for increased insight.
Red Zone Report Revelations
Case Study #1 – QB – Patrick Mahomes
- Averaged 35 TDs per season over career, but in 2023 and 2024, he averaged 26.5 TDs
- 3rd most red zone attempts (ATT) – 105
- 2024 red zone TD conversion rate (red zone TDs/red zone attempts) was 21% (21st among QBs with at least 40 red zone attempts)
Takeaway: Fantasy managers may have soured somewhat on Mahomes, given his suppressed scoring production over the last two years. The window for acquisition in dynasty, or drafting at a value, in SuperFlex leagues is more open now than it has been lately. He surely has the name value, but name value is not immune to depressed production.
Case Study #2 – QB – Joe Burrow
- Most red zone pass attempts, 21 more attempts than the next QB, Patrick Mahomes
- Second-most TDs, accounting for 69.8% of his 2024 passing TDs
- 30.2% (or 13) of his TD passes could be considered “explosive” scoring plays, which are ripe for regression
- 2024 was a spike performance with a previous career best of 35 TDs in 2022
Takeaway: Beware of a potential regression for Burrow in 2025. Explosive plays are often the result of a variety of defensive errors. This means those 13 explosive TDs from 2024 have baked-in variance.
Case Study #3 – Baltimore TEs
- Lamar Jackson had a 48.5% TD conversion rate (33 TDs on 68 red zone pass attempts) – this efficiency is simply unsustainable, and the low volume is a concern
- 41% of Jackson’s red zone attempts went to the TEs, Isaiah Likely (13) and Mark Andrews (15)
- Mark Andrews’ 11 TDs were a spike in his production, and per his TD%, all of them came in the red zone
- Likely earned two more 10-Zone targets (8) than Andrews (6)
Takeaway: Jackson’s high efficiency and low opportunities indicate regression. To achieve the same production level, additional opportunities will be necessary. If more opportunities come, Likely’s red zone data suggests positive regression. Andrews is, simultaneously, a candidate for negative regression in his efficiency. All this may support decisions to prioritize acquiring Likely in a contract year.
Case Study #4 – Bills Receiving Corps
When I switched from initially sorting by TGT to TDS to look for potential positive regression candidates in the receiving category, these three pass-catchers were clumped together. This further supports the Buffalo Bills’ offensive motto, “everybody eats.”
- This group accounted for 44.1% of the targets (30/68) among Buffalo receivers in the UDK Red Zone Receiving report
- Mack Hollins and Ty Johnson were tied for the second-highest total red zone targets with seven each
- Hollins had the most 10-Zone targets (6) and TDs (3)
- Khalil Shakir led targets outside the 10-Zone, but converted none of those into scores
- TDs outside the 10-Zone (8) were spread across eight different receivers (again, “everybody eats”)
Takeaway: “Everybody eats,” much to the chagrin of fantasy managers. However, it would be irrational to expect Buffalo to maintain this even “peanut butter” spread of their scoring opportunities. There will be a variance here that will benefit one of these three receivers. My bet is on Keon Coleman to draw more opportunities through effective use of his size (6’4″, 215 lbs) in the red zone.
Case Study #5 – RB Highlights
- Top 5 in 5-Zone market share includes Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Breece Hall, Chuba Hubbard, and Kyren Williams (all above 70%)
- Jahmyr Gibbs boasts a more efficient 10-Zone conversion rate (38.5%) despite nine fewer 10-Zone carries than David Montgomery
- Saquon Barkley’s 10-Zone and 5-Zone attempts (28 and 17, respectively) compared to production (4 rushing TDs) indicate positive regression potential; Barkley and Jalen Hurts evenly split attempts in both zones
- Jonathan Taylor is a prime candidate for positive regression, converting only 22.4% of his 31 red zone carries (Average among RBs with 5+ attempts: 28.6%)
- Similarly, Chase Brown only converted 20.69% of his 29 red zone carries into scores, but his efficiency (46.2% on 13 attempts) more than doubled in the 5-Zone
Takeaways: I have been aggressively making moves to acquire Chase Brown this off-season in dynasty, and seeing this 10-Zone data encourages me to do the same in Best Ball and redraft formats. Given similar indicators for Jonathan Taylor, perhaps we should place more weight on his bounce-back potential, despite the current state of the Colts’ offense.
Fading Barkley makes sense due to his 2024 workload, but given the positive regression profile (high number of attempts with low TDs), it’s challenging to completely fade him. As we “place our bets” on season outcomes, if we believe in an uptick in Barkley’s 5-Zone TDs, it necessitates a reduction in Jalen Hurts‘ 5-Zone TDs. With that said, the “Brotherly Shove” (or “Tush Push” if you must) is still legal and still dominant.
The Detroit backfield is primed for a regression. Frank Ragnow’s retirement, Ben Johnson’s departure, and the team’s high TD conversion rate on the ground make it reasonable to expect a reduction in opportunities. Who would it impact the most? If data and efficiency drive decisions inside the 5-Zone for the Detroit Lions, Gibbs may be the most insulated from the team’s reduced opportunities.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/uBkLN9G
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