Welcome back to Makeup or Breakup: the fantasy therapy session you didn’t know you needed. For those new here, Makeup or Breakup is where we take a hard look at our fantasy relationships – deciding if these players are worth our love this season or if it’s time to move on.
Last week, we patched things up with Deebo Samuel. We aired our grievances, shared some tears, and decided to give love (and fantasy relevancy for the new Commander) one more shot.
Today, it’s time for a hard conversation. We’re talking about someone who has been the rock of our fantasy teams for years. He’s a fantasy football legend, carrying us to championships season after season. I’m talking about one of the best ever to do it at the QB position. He’s a two-time NFL MVP and a three-time Super Bowl champion. Yes, the GOAT himself: Patrick Mahomes.
It’s time to make up or break up with Patrick Mahomes.
Dear Patrick Mahomes,
I’ll never forget drafting you back in 2018. Watching you torch defenses for 50 TDs that year – those were the days we chased glory together. You didn’t just burst onto the scene; you exploded, lighting a fire in me every Sunday as you filled up the highlight reels week after week. You led the league in deep ball attempts, red zone attempts, passing TDs, and fantasy points per game. You carried me all the way to fantasy championship glory. Since then: QB8 in 2019, despite missing time, back-to-back QB4 finishes in 2020 and 2021, and then another QB1 crown in 2022 with over 5,200 yards like it was nothing.
| SEASON | Games Played | Fantasy Finish | Fantasy PPG | Passing Yards | Yards Per Attempt | TD | TD% | Rushing Yards |
| 2017 | 1 | 52 | 10.4 | 284 | 8.1 | 0 | 0% | 10 |
| 2018 | 16 | 1 | 26.1 | 5097 | 8.8 | 52 | 8.60% | 272 |
| 2019 | 14 | 8 | 20.5 | 4031 | 8.3 | 28 | 5.40% | 218 |
| 2020 | 15 | 4 | 25 | 4740 | 8.1 | 40 | 6.50% | 308 |
| 2021 | 17 | 4 | 21.3 | 4839 | 7.4 | 39 | 5.60% | 381 |
| 2022 | 17 | 1 | 24.5 | 5250 | 8.1 | 45 | 6.30% | 358 |
| 2023 | 16 | 8 | 17.5 | 4183 | 7 | 27 | 4.50% | 389 |
| 2024 | 16 | 11 | 17.6 | 3928 | 6.8 | 28 | 4.50% | 307 |
But lately, something feels different. The offense has changed. Your production has dipped. You were QB8 in 2023 and QB11 last year, with your points per game peaking at 26.1, down to 17.5. I hate to tell you this, but your consistency score (percentage of games exceeding 20 points (4pt TD) in the last 17 games played) from the Ballers is an F.
What happened, Patrick? An F? Where did the magic go?
I wish I could ignore the numbers, but they tell a story my heart doesn’t want to hear. Somehow, your ADP hasn’t taken much of a hit. You’re currently the QB6 in redraft.
Your average depth of target has steadily declined since your rookie season in 2018, when it was an impressive 9.1 yards. From 2019 to 2020, it dipped slightly but remained strong in the 8s. But starting in 2021, that number fell below 8 yards for the first time in your career. The trend only accelerated from there, dropping to 6.5 yards in 2023 and now sitting at a career low of 5.6 yards in 2024. Look, you’re still Patrick Mahomes – one of the most talented QBs we’ve ever seen – but when your average throw is only traveling five to six yards past the line of scrimmage, it’s hard to deliver those massive fantasy weeks that will win my matchups.
A lot was working against your fantasy numbers. Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, and Isiah Pacheco all battled injuries, stripping you of key weapons. Rice was becoming your go-to guy before he went down, and the devastation on your face said it all. Hollywood Brown never found his footing after being eased back in, and Pacheco just didn’t look like himself coming off injury either.
Then there’s the offensive line. It’s been a rough ride with key pieces like Jawaan Taylor and D.J. Humphries missing time. You’ve been under more pressure and forced to get the ball out quicker and settle for short passes rather than those signature deep shots we’ve come to love. Losing Tyreek Hill in his prime definitely didn’t help, and let’s be honest, Travis Kelce isn’t getting any younger; in fact, he’ll be 36 this year. The production has started to slip with Kelce as well. In the past two seasons, Kelce hasn’t reached 1,000 receiving yards after achieving it for seven consecutive seasons. Travis also only came down with three TDs last season. Patrick, were you even looking his way? Three TDs were a career low for your dude!
“It wasn’t a fun ride with Patrick Mahomes this season.” pic.twitter.com/9gF7FvfB6N
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) January 23, 2025
The Chiefs’ defense has been elite; ninth overall, eighth against the run, and fourth in points allowed last year. That’s great news for Kansas City’s win column, but not so great for my fantasy team. When your defense is shutting opponents down, you’re not out there slinging it 50 times a game. Just look at Joe Burrow. The Bengals had one of the worst defenses in the league last year, which meant he was constantly in shootouts, airing it out just to keep them in games. But you, Patrick, your defense rarely puts you in that situation. Well, unless it’s last year’s Super Bowl. (Too soon?)
The defense has kept the Chiefs in games. Coach Andy Reid doesn’t mind winning by controlling the clock, limiting the number of possessions for both teams, and running the ball. It’s winning games.
So, what’s different now, Patrick, that makes me want to believe again?
You’re getting your weapons back. Everyone saw how devastated you were after that accidental collision with Rashee Rice that tore his LCL and ended his season. Coach Andy Reid is optimistic that Rice will be a full participant at training camp. Hollywood Brown was limited down the stretch last year, but he’s had the entire offseason to get right and should come in fully healthy. Same with Pacheco – he just wasn’t himself after that broken bone, but now he’s had time to fully recover. And let’s not forget about Travis Kelce slimming down – it’s officially “best shape of his life” season.
I don’t want to alarm anyone, but Travis Kelce might be in the best shape of his life
https://t.co/m09I81ir5P
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) June 14, 2025
The offensive line? It still has significant question marks. Sure, they signed former 49ers backup left tackle Jaylon Moore to a two-year deal and drafted Ohio State’s Josh Simmons in the first round, but neither move guarantees stability. Moore has spent his career as just that —a backup —and Simmons is coming off a season-ending knee injury he sustained in October of last season (a torn patellar tendon). Trading away veteran left guard Joe Thuney only added more uncertainty. Fantasy managers hoping for the Chiefs’ offense to bounce back might once again have to watch you scrambling for your life. PlayerProfiler has the Chiefs’ offensive line ranked 26th despite the offseason additions.
Some say you still have an elite floor, and with Rice, Brown, and Pacheco healthy, he could climb back to QB4 range. I’m not buying it.
Sure, your WR room is the best it’s been since Tyreek left, but none of them are Tyreek Hill – and the Chiefs don’t need them to be. Andy Reid is perfectly content winning games in other ways. Drafting Mahomes as the QB6 just seems too risky. The risk outweighs the reward when you can grab a dual-threat QB later, like Kyler Murray or Justin Fields. Even Dak Prescott is going 44 picks later! Two years ago, he finished as QB3, and now he has CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and no true elite RB, sorry Javonte Williams. I don’t mind taking a swing at Dak. Dak’s ceiling is real, and he’s available way later in drafts.
Verdict: Patrick, this hurts to say. You’re a generational talent, and your legacy is already cemented. But at QB6 ADP, I can’t press that draft button. You haven’t hit that mark in the last two years, and nothing about this offense screams bounce-back. You’ll keep winning games for the Chiefs, but my fantasy team needs someone with rushing juice or massive volume. People will draft you for the name alone. I won’t be one of them.
Patrick Mahomes, it’s time to break up.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/Eke7wBO
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