Welcome back to our Dynasty Ultimatums series! Over the past couple of seasons, this series has focused on players at a career crossroads, highlighting those on the verge of pivotal fantasy seasons and assessing their dynasty outlook. Looking back at last year’s article, many of the featured RBs ended up as major busts, creating a perfect sell-high window for those who acted early. Others, however, exceeded expectations and saw their dynasty value rise.
The 2024 group included Kyren Williams, Zamir White, Josh Jacobs, Kendre Miller, and Javonte Williams. Of that group, Williams and Jacobs rose to the occasion, meeting their dynasty ultimatums and solidifying themselves as premium assets at the position. On the other hand, White and Miller completely missed the mark, finishing as the RB86 and RB88 and losing nearly all of the perceived value they carried last offseason. Williams fell somewhere in between. He did not return to form or meet expectations, but an RB31 finish was not a total disaster. With a real shot to start for the Cowboys in 2025, this upcoming season will be another crucial turning point for his fragile dynasty outlook.
As the 2025 NFL season approaches, it brings a host of questions about the fate of many notable players. For dynasty managers, maintaining realistic expectations for these controversial players is crucial. It can be tough to lose faith in players we once had high hopes for, but setting dynasty ultimatums can help us manage our rosters more effectively. In this article, we will explore controversial RBs entering make-or-break seasons, outlining the specific goals they must achieve to meet their current expectations.
Check out the first article from this series, featuring QBs.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (24.1 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2022-2025) 4 yr(s) / $9,014,774
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
It was the summer of 2024. Breece Hall was coming off a breakout sophomore season, finishing as the RB4, and was widely drafted with one of the first two picks in redraft leagues. Expectations were sky-high, like a jet soaring through the clouds. What could possibly go wrong? As it turns out, plenty.
Despite suiting up for 16 games, Hall finished as the RB17, falling well short of his draft day expectations. He flashed at times and remained a reliable receiving threat, but his overall efficiency and usage took a clear step back. Hall averaged fewer than 14 carries per game, in part due to increased involvement from rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Even more troubling: the Jets finished dead last in total rushing attempts (363), limiting Hall’s opportunity to produce. He has yet to eclipse five rushing TDs in any of his first three seasons, largely a product of New York’s inability to sustain drives or reach scoring range.
Fortunately, there is reason to believe that the 2025 season could offer Hall a fresh start and a chance to get his career back on track. After the failed one-year Aaron Rodgers experiment, the Jets tore everything down and are entering the season with new management, a new coaching staff, and a new starting QB. Hall, now two years removed from his ACL surgery and entering a contract year, will need to prove himself to a staff that did not draft him.
New York handing the offense to Justin Fields adds a layer of uncertainty to Hall’s outlook. On the bright side, the Jets are expected to lean heavily on the run game, with few proven playmakers outside of Garrett Wilson. The offensive line looks better than it has in years, and Fields’ mobility could open up additional rushing lanes.
But there are clear risks. Fields is likely to siphon off goal-line carries, an area where Hall has already struggled to deliver consistent fantasy production. That said, despite his reputation as a run-first QB, Fields ranked second in the NFL in checkdown rate last season. If that trend continues, it could be a major boost for Hall’s fantasy upside. His rushing volume dipped last year, but he remained one of the most heavily targeted backs in football. Only Alvin Kamara (175) saw more targets than Hall (171) over the past two seasons.
For Hall to bounce back, he will need either a boost in rushing volume in what is expected to be a committee backfield or elite-level passing game involvement from Fields. That might sound optimistic, but with so few proven receiving options on the roster, both outcomes are within reach. Few elite dynasty assets saw their perceived value dip more than Hall last season, and it is fair to question whether the concerns surrounding him have been overstated.
Hall is still just 24 years old and should be in the prime of his career. With a new coaching staff in place, there is hope this offense gets a much-needed spark. But make no mistake, Hall has one year to prove he is the long-term solution at RB and earn a second contract, whether in New York or elsewhere. Because of that, we are giving him the lofty ultimatum of finishing as an RB1 in 2025, a goal that seemed easily attainable this time last year.
If Hall hits that mark, he should have no trouble locking in a starting role going forward. But if he struggles, the team could look to get their talented, younger backs more involved, potentially making Hall expendable by season’s end. That makes him one of the toughest dynasty evaluations heading into 2025. Personally, I view him as a hold more than anything else. I would buy low where I can, but I would also be open to selling high, given the uncertainty and red flags. This season will go a long way toward determining how we should value one of the league’s most talented yet polarizing RBs moving forward.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears (26.5 y.o.)
Current Contract: Free Agent (2024-2026) 3 yr(s) / $24,000,000
*POTENTIAL OUT: 2026, 2 YR, $16,657,790; $1,333,334 DEAD CAP*
Free Agent: 2027 / UFA
D’Andre Swift’s dynasty value has bounced around like a ping-pong ball since he entered the league. While he never became the star many expected during his early days in Detroit, he has quietly put together a productive career. Even with missed time in multiple seasons, he has never finished worse than RB23. That is solid, but it places him in a frustrating fantasy tier: valuable, yet never a true difference maker.
That “good but not great” perception has also followed him in real life. Despite his efforts, teams have consistently moved on in favor of more premium options. Detroit spent a shocking first-round pick on Jahmyr Gibbs. Then, after Swift posted his first 1,000-yard season in Philadelphia, the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley. Being replaced by two top-tier talents is not necessarily an indictment, but it reinforces the notion that Swift never fully evolved into the player so many once believed he could be.
Last season, Swift delivered several fantasy-relevant weeks despite operating in a shaky offense led by a rookie QB and a struggling offensive line. He played all 17 games for the first time in his career and finished as the RB19. He came close to 1,000 rushing yards and set a career high with 253 carries, but his efficiency dipped to just 3.79 yards per carry.
Chicago completely overhauled its offensive line this offseason and will now be led by new head coach Ben Johnson, who previously served as Swift’s offensive coordinator during his last season in Detroit. That familiarity could be a plus, although it is worth noting that Johnson’s regime ultimately moved on from Swift. With a much-improved line and a more competent offensive structure, Swift will need to be more efficient out of the gate. If he stumbles early, the team could quickly pivot to Roschon Johnson or seventh-round pick Kyle Monangai.
Swift came out of the draft and free agency as a clear winner, but there are signs that Chicago may have had other plans. Reports suggest the team was targeting an RB earlier in the draft but kept getting sniped. Even so, the Bears did not aggressively pursue a veteran like Nick Chubb or JK Dobbins, which may signal confidence in the current backfield heading into the season.
While Swift has seemed to have as many lives as a cat, consistently finding new teams and carving out fantasy-relevant roles against the odds, time may finally be running out on his average career. Now paired with a head coach who once replaced him in Detroit, Swift will need more than just a solid year to keep his role in 2025 and beyond. He will need to finally step up and be great.
Due to this, his dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-15 RB next season, which would be the best fantasy finish of his career. If Chicago’s offense takes the expected step forward under Caleb Williams and a retooled line, that goal is within reach. But if Swift turns in another middling season, there will be nothing stopping the Bears from drafting a top-tier RB next spring to complete their young offensive core.
For contenders, Swift could be an appealing buy as a modest bet on a career year in a better situation. But for rebuilding teams, a hot start might present a valuable sell-high window that is worth capitalizing on before his long-term future inevitably comes into question again.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (26.4 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2021-2025) 4 yr(s) / $12,898,105
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
Travis Etienne’s 2024 season was nothing short of a disaster, a far cry from the player who finished as the RB3 just a year earlier. His breakout performance in 2023 had locked him into early-round redraft territory, but those who banked on a repeat were burned badly. He tumbled to an RB36 finish, averaging just 7.4 fantasy points per game, 43rd among all RBs. After scoring twice in the first two weeks, he failed to find the end zone again for the rest of the season. Lingering injuries, vanishing efficiency, and a volatile weekly role turned him into a constant headache for fantasy managers.
The most alarming part of Etienne’s decline was how quickly his efficiency cratered. In 2023, he led the NFL with 31 broken tackles. In 2024, that number dropped to just three. He ranked fourth in yards created in 2023, only to plummet to 38th last year. His yards per carry have steadily declined as well, down from 5.1 in 2022 to 3.8 in 2023 and 3.7 in 2024. While the last two seasons may look similar on paper, neither number is encouraging, and both suggest a sharp and potentially lasting regression.
One silver lining has been his role in the passing game. Despite Jacksonville’s offensive struggles, Etienne saw 52 targets in 2024, seven more than he did in 2022. But even here, his efficiency dipped. He managed just 39 receptions for 254 yards, averaging a career-low 4.88 yards per target. That is a stark contrast from 2022, when he totaled 316 receiving yards on fewer targets, thanks to a far more efficient 7.02 yards per target. A return to form as a receiving weapon could be key to reviving his fantasy value in 2025.
Etienne also had to contend with Tank Bigsby, who took advantage of Etienne’s injury absence to post back-to-back breakout games, including a Week 7 explosion of 118 yards and two TDs on 26 carries. But outside of those performances, Bigsby struggled with efficiency as well. When Etienne returned in Week 9, he was limited to just three carries, further fueling questions about his health and role moving forward. Hamstring injuries are notoriously difficult to manage and often linger, sapping players of their explosiveness even after they return to the field. That may have been a major factor in Etienne’s lackluster play throughout the season.
Looking ahead to 2025, the Jaguars have added even more competition to the backfield. They selected Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round, an explosive runner with strong receiving skills, and followed that up by taking LeQuint Allen in the seventh. While Allen is under the radar, his production at Syracuse and fresh legs make him a name to watch. With Bigsby, Tuten, and Allen all vying for touches, Etienne will need to firmly re-establish himself as the best option in the room to avoid a frustrating committee situation.
The grossest offseason take I can’t seem to shake is that Travis Etienne will be a valuable fantasy asset this season and well exceed his ADP.
It's apparently a weird hill that I'm willing to die on..
— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) May 25, 2025
Still, there are reasons for optimism. A key one is health. If Etienne can fully recover from the hamstring issue that clearly limited him last year, a rebound is not out of the question. Another promising change is Jacksonville’s new coaching staff. With Doug Pederson gone and Liam Coen stepping in, the offense could take a step forward. Coen’s stint with the Buccaneers saw Bucky Irving and Rachaad White form one of the league’s most productive backfield duos. Irving finished as the RB14 and White as the RB24, both ranking inside the top 10 in receiving yards among RBs.
Under Coen, Tampa Bay’s RBs accounted for 21% of the team’s targets, good for fourth in the league. Jacksonville’s backs, by comparison, saw just 15%, ranking 24th. Neither Etienne nor Bigsby may match Irving’s explosiveness as a runner, but Etienne stands out as the best bet to take over the receiving role, especially with Bigsby offering little in that area. Add in Evan Engram’s departure and the resulting target vacuum, and Etienne could benefit from a meaningful increase in passing volume.
If Coen chooses to feature Etienne in the same way he used his backs in Tampa, a bounce-back season is well within reach. Improved health, better usage, and some positive TD regression could push Etienne back into fantasy relevance. However, there is no room for error. Etienne is entering a contract year with a new coaching staff that could be looking to reshape the team’s identity. Another season of poor efficiency or lost snaps to younger backs could send his dynasty value into a tailspin. What once looked like the profile of an elite fantasy back could quickly fade into a “what could have been” cautionary tale.
Etienne’s dynasty ultimatum is to finish the 2025 season as a top-15 RB. That would prove his 2023 RB3 finish was not a fluke and give him a strong case for a second contract, whether in Jacksonville or elsewhere. Personally, I am cautiously optimistic. With a revamped offensive line, a new play-caller, and a chip on his shoulder, Etienne has a chance to turn things around. If you can acquire him at a discount, he could be a sneaky value play for contending teams. But if you are not sold on the rebound, it is also fair to cash out now while his name still holds weight, before you are left holding the bag.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (26.3 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2022-2025) 4 yr(s) / $3,739,108
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
No matter how productive they are, late-round RBs almost always face an uphill battle to earn a meaningful second contract. It is a familiar and unforgiving reality that has cut countless promising careers short. Despite beating the odds early in his career, Isiah Pacheco now finds himself at a crossroads, still trying to prove he is Kansas City’s long-term answer in the backfield.
As a seventh-round pick, he shocked many by making an immediate impact as a rookie. His true breakout came in 2023 when he finished as the RB16 despite playing in only 14 games. Heading into last season, his value was at an all-time high. Then came a fractured fibula in Week 2, which sidelined him until Week 12. In his absence, Kareem Hunt stepped up and eventually played ahead of him during the final stretch.
Even more concerning, Pacheco averaged just 4.3 carries per game in the playoffs and was off the field for most of the meaningful snaps. Now, with a full offseason to recover, he enters a contract year with everything on the line. If he wants to earn a second deal, it starts with reclaiming his role and staying on the field.
After returning from injury last season, Pacheco looked like a shell of the runner we had grown accustomed to. Known for his violent, high-energy style, he averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on 62 attempts between the end of the regular season and the playoffs. There is a real chance he lost a step. But with more time to heal this offseason, he should come into 2025 healthy and ready to prove otherwise.
Assessing Pacheco’s dynasty value is no easy task. He is still just 26, but there is a very real chance this could be his final season as Kansas City’s starting RB. The aging Kareem Hunt remains on the roster, and the team added Elijah Mitchell in free agency and Brashard Smith in the seventh round of the draft. While none of them pose a major threat on paper, all three could push for playing time. Pacheco will need to hold them off to keep his lead role.
The fact that Kansas City waited until the end of the draft to address the position should be seen as a decent win for Pacheco managers. Still, it is worth remembering that both Pacheco and Hunt were once overlooked late-round picks who ended up earning meaningful roles. The team could easily turn to their new rookie RB or draft a replacement in 2026 rather than re-sign Pacheco.
For him to maintain or build on his current dynasty value, he will likely need a career year in 2025. Due to this, his ultimatum is to finish as a top-15 RB, hold onto the starting job, and make a strong case for a second contract. Because of the risk, Pacheco currently looks like more of a sell in dynasty if you can get a solid return. However, if you are a contender and can buy low with a short-term view, betting on him in Kansas City’s high-powered offense might be worth the gamble.
Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys (25.2 y.o)
Current Contract: Free Agent (2025) 1 yr(s) / $3,000,000
Free Agent: 2026 / UFA
Every time I talk about Javonte Williams’ dynasty value, I get a little emotional. After his breakout rookie season, I liked him so much I named my Ford Bronco after him. At least the car still has some gas left in the tank. Williams finished as the RB17 that year and was quickly viewed as a premium dynasty asset and one of the most exciting young backs in the league. But just four games into his second season, he suffered a devastating knee injury.
To his credit, he fought his way back and appeared in 16 games the following year, which was impressive on its own. But it was clear he was not the same player he was before the injury. He finished as the RB30 in 2023 and followed that up with an RB31 finish last season, despite playing all 17 games. His yards per carry dipped below 3.7 in both years, and his usage down the stretch in 2024 was especially concerning. He did not reach double-digit carries in any game after Week 9, leading to multiple letdowns for fantasy managers during the most important part of the season.
On the bright side, he saw 70 targets last season, the fifth-most among RBs behind only Breece Hall, Alvin Kamara, De’Von Achane, and Bijan Robinson. But despite the volume, he was not very efficient, catching just 52 passes for under 350 yards. Without that kind of usage, his fantasy season would have completely fallen apart. After another underwhelming year, Denver and Williams mutually moved on as the team looked for a fresh start with a back who had less wear and tear. Fortunately, even with his time in Denver behind him, a new opportunity has surfaced that could potentially help him get his career back on track.
Even after Rico Dowdle unexpectedly topped 1,000 rushing yards for Dallas last season, the Cowboys chose to move on and revamp their backfield. Entering 2025, the team features four new names: Williams, Miles Sanders, rookie fifth-round pick Jaydon Blue, and seventh-rounder Phil Mafah. Of the four, Williams appears to have the best shot to open the season as the starter. It will be up to him to take advantage of the opportunity and hold off the competition.
If he can lock down the job, Williams could be in line for a better season than most expect. Much like Dowdle last year, he might benefit from simply being the best option in an uninspiring group, especially in a system that has consistently supported strong fantasy production. With a healthy Dak Prescott under center and a passing attack led by CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, Dallas should generate plenty of scoring chances. If Williams claims both the starting job and the goal-line role, there is a real chance he turns this fresh start into a resurgent season.
Williams is still only 25 years old and should be fully recovered from his lower-body injuries. While there are legitimate concerns that he has lost a step and may never return to his pre-injury form, his age and former upside still leave a small window for optimism. Now on a cheap prove-it deal in Dallas, he will have to earn every touch and opportunity. Like last year’s article, his dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-20 RB, a goal that feels attainable given the opportunity. For context, Dowdle came close to hitting that mark last season and likely would have done it with a more consistent role earlier in the year.
Williams’ long-term outlook hinges on whether he can do enough in 2025 to secure another contract and a defined role. If he falls short, he risks fading into a future as just another committee back, leaving us wondering what could have been. If you can acquire him for a minimal cost, there is no downside to seeing if he can bounce back and provide depth for your dynasty roster. Just do not count on him turning into the star we once imagined during his rookie season. This is a new chapter, and the hope is that the damage from the last one has not torn too many pages to make the rest of the story worth reading.
Get ready to dominate your draft with the 2025 Ultimate Draft Kit!
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/hUHSw8N
No comments: