After a difficult year for New England in the rushing game, it will be a big test to see how the team comes back in 2025. After drafting lineman Will Campbell and RB TreVeyon Henderson, the Patriots look to bolster their run game as they slowly rebuild. Let’s take a look at the numbers to see how strong the outlook for this backfield is.
First, let’s observe each lineman’s performance relative to the NFL mean in fantasy points per carry per lead block. When we group by position on the line, we can gain insights into where the group’s strengths and weaknesses lie.
As far as run blocking goes, what we see in the visual below isn’t terrible. While only one position on the line outperformed the NFL average (LG), three others were very close to doing so (LT, RG, and RT). In a previous article, I discovered that having an entire side (right or left) of a line increases the average fantasy points per rush of an RB by 0.1 points. With an entire line performing highly, you’d see an increase of 0.2 points per rush. The Patriots, surprisingly, aren’t terribly far from this.
If you evaluate last season’s performance from the perspective of their leading rusher, the team ranked 24th in the league (see the visual below). Let’s see what the New England line will look like in 2025 and if their changes will make an impact.
Below is the projected offensive line for 2025, along with their respective PFF grades.
LT Will Campbell: ungraded, Rookie
LG Cole Strange: 48.6
C Garrett Bradbury: 62.8
RG Mike Onwenu: 65.2
RT Morgan Moses: 63.3
This line will feature three new pieces, Campbell being a rookie, and Bradbury and Moses, offseason signings. Moses, a seasoned veteran, will fill in with 2024 third-round pick Caedan Wallace, which should relieve some of the pressure the young blocker has had early on. New England also signed guard Wes Schweitzer, who has a 60 overall grade from PFF, and can add some depth to this lineup. Last, Garrett Bradbury was signed to replace the retired David Andrews, another strong veteran for this lineup.
Overall, while the line doesn’t feature any major key players, the depth and added experience might be able to push the front over the edge, at least in terms of run blocking.
While the line may be serviceable for the 2025 season, it is in question whether veteran Rhamondre Stevenson or rookie TreVeyon Henderson will take the majority of the snaps for the year. Stevenson, who is 27, might be nearing the end of his Patriots tenure. While he is under contract until 2028, there is a potential out of the deal following the 2026 season, and after New England drafted an RB in the draft, this seems fairly likely. Stevenson has struggled as a pass-catching back as well, allowing Antonio Gibson to out-gain him in receiving yards last season. Henderson, on the other hand, hauled in 27 passes last season at OSU, averaging 10.5 yards per reception. Look for him to fill in Gibson’s role in this New England offense.
Believe it or not, in Mike Vrabel’s final three seasons as a head coach of the Titans, his teams’ rushing percentage was always under 50% (46% average). Even with an incredible bell-cow RB like Derrick Henry, Vrabel still elected to pass the ball slightly more. So, while we won’t necessarily be looking at a run-first offense, will there be a split backfield? Again, in Vrabel’s final seasons, his lead back took 63%, 71.6%, and 40% (due to injury in the third year). While this should be taken with a grain of salt, as Vrabel had a clear Hall of Fame RB to go to, it is clear that he leaned into his main guy. While the Patriots’ backfield is certainly more apt to be a split one, look for one of the rushers to earn more touches after a short period. TreVeyon Henderson is the likely candidate, as the Patriots have more recently invested capital into him.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/5qyLtEM
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