Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 14, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Week 14 Pace of Play CSV.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Bengals games have combined for 54.5 points per game (2nd most) while the Bills are not far behind at 49.7 (tied for 6th most). The play styles, however, could not be more conflicting as Cincy ranks 7th in PROE and 2nd in seconds per play while the Bills rank 25th and 31st in those categories, respectively. If the Bengals can keep this game competitive on the road, it truly is a battle of wills but I do see this being far and away the most popular game of the week.
The Bills went wildly run-heavy last week. Actually, even describing the game-plan that way does a disservice to you reading this article: THEY FORGOT TO PASS ESSENTIALLY. Buffalo’s PROE (-17.4%) was by far its lowest of the year and could we see a similar plan this week at home? Cincinnati, albeit slightly improved in the last two weeks, is one of the worst run-stuffing units in the league: 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in yards before contact, and 32nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. This game plays out quite well for James Cook III, who is seeing the highest workload share of his career: 36% of the team’s total rush attempts & targets. However, the spot seems all too obvious for a Burrow double stack with a Cook bring back, so keep in mind roster percentages if you think the field is a bit too overconfident come Sunday lock. Aside from the running game, we are weekly playing a whack-o-mole game with the Bills receiving corps, especially if Dalton Kincaid fails to return. Khalil Shakir has flip-flopped showing up the last few weeks and he ran a route on just 50% of the team’s drop backs last week. Joshua Palmer showed out in this week’s Targets per Route Run Report (31% TPRR), but barely hit the route minimum; he hasn’t played more than 50% of snaps since his return from injury. Adding Kincaid in or a cheap Dawson Knox is a great way to mix in some lower rostered pieces from the Buffalo side given their 29-point implied total.
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