DeVonta Smith is tied up in a contract entering its most expensive years and has a spot as the nominal WR2 on one of the most pass-efficient offenses in football. His 2025 season was quietly good, however fantasy managers have themselves wondering what is in store for the Alabama product as the Eagles look to potentially mix things up this offseason.
This article will explore his 2026 outlook based on his recent production and salary cap impact. Let’s jump into the numbers!
Smith’s final 2025 stats: 77 receptions, 1,008 yards, four TDs on 113 targets across all 17 games. This was the third 1,000-yard season of his five-year career. A 24% target share that ranked 18th in the league. On the surface, a reliable WR2 finish.
The concerns are in the margins — and they matter a lot for how you should draft him heading into 2026.
Philadelphia is one of the most top-heavy pass-catching ecosystems in the NFL. Brown and Smith have combined for over 220 targets in each of the past three seasons, leaving very little for anyone else — yet Goedert has somehow carved out an elite TD-generating role in that same offense. Jahan Dotson, acquired from Washington, barely registered.
The numbers above confirm a clear hierarchy: Brown and Smith are the one-two punch, Goedert is the red zone specialist, and Dotson is a non-factor. There is no developing third receiver threatening anyone’s role. The Eagles ran essentially a two-WR plus TE passing game all season, and the target pool reflects that.
For Smith specifically, two numbers stand out. First, his 1.65 yards per route run led the entire receiving room — higher than Brown’s 1.52, significantly higher than Goedert’s 1.38. Second, his four TDs on 113 targets is a conversion rate that flatters no one. Brown had seven TDs on 121 targets; Goedert had an astonishing 11 on just 82. Smith’s endzone usage, or lack thereof, is the central fantasy narrative of his 2025 season.
The figure below shows volume vs. efficiency numbers, or target share % vs. catch rate %. DeVonta Smith falls above the league average in catch rate, seeing over a 20% target share. AJ Brown falls below the league average. Smith’s talent is undeniable.
The table below shows Smith’s career trajectory thus far. While still incredibly efficient, Smith showed a decline in performance, having his worst season since his sophomore year.
The A.J. Brown Situation
You cannot write about DeVonta Smith‘s fantasy outlook without addressing the elephant in the room, who wore a No. 11 jersey and spent much of the 2025 season publicly frustrated on the Philadelphia sideline.
Brown recorded 121 targets, 78 receptions, 1,003 yards, and seven TDs – a fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season and a WR1 finish by any objective measure. In this, Brown had a brutal first half and a spectacular second half of the 2025 season. From Week 12 onward, he hauled in 40 receptions for 546 yards and four TDs across six games – a tear that carried him to the 1,000-yard mark.
The most explosive scenario for Smith’s fantasy stock in 2026 is an A.J. Brown trade. Brown is under contract through 2029, but the dead cap on an early exit would be manageable for an Eagles team that recently won a Super Bowl and has roster-building flexibility. If Brown moves on, Smith becomes the unquestioned WR1 in an offense that targets the No. 1 receiver frequently. With his proven ability to be an efficient option for Jalen Hurts, this poses to be a massive opportunity.
What Smith’s Contract Tells Us
Smith enters 2026 at a $10.7M cap hit that escalates to $14.8M in 2027 before a potential out in 2028. The deal structure features heavy void years (2029–2032) that reflect accelerated signing bonus proration. This means the Eagles have pushed cap accounting into future years but have real flexibility to part ways after 2027 with only $14.9M in dead cap. Long story short, he’s locked in through 2027 at a minimum.
The contract is relatively affordable compared to the top-tier WR deals in the league right now, which is both good news (Smith isn’t a cap casualty risk) and a slight concern (the organization may not view him as an alpha, as Brown’s deal is considerably richer). But it also means Smith isn’t going anywhere unless a blockbuster trade becomes available, which makes him an exceptionally stable fantasy floor.
The TD Problem
Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
The single biggest issue standing between Smith and a genuine WR1 fantasy finish is red zone usage. Across five years with the Eagles, Smith has been a consistent yards-and-volume producer but a very inconsistent TD scorer. His career TD totals by season: 5, 7, 7, 8, 4. The reasons are structural. Smith, at 6-foot and 170 pounds, doesn’t profile as a goal-line force, causing Hurts to mainly target Goedert and Brown in goal-to-go situations. His TDs thus have been more dependent on game script and play calling than volume alone.
In 2026, if the red zone role doesn’t change, projecting Smith for more than six TDs requires either an exceptional game script or a coaching staff that decides to deploy him differently in the end zone. Neither is guaranteed.
Conclusion
The Eagles are a perennial contending team with (at times) one of the most talent-rich passing games in the NFL. The target math is tight; Brown and Smith consume nearly 50% of all targets together, but that concentration is exactly what creates reliable fantasy floors. Both can easily crack 1,000 yards on the same team.
Smith’s $10.7M cap hit is a bargain for the production he delivers – he isn’t going anywhere. His 1.65 YPRR is a sign that he’s getting more out of his routes than the TD total suggests. If A.J. Brown does make his exit this offseason, the Slim Reaper steps into one of the most coveted WR1 spots in fantasy football, at a draft price that won’t reflect it. Even though his TD production isn’t there, a talented receiver will provide consistent fantasy output and not force you to rely on them finding the endzone.
Watch the A.J. Brown situation closely this offseason. It may be the most important domino in the entire 2026 fantasy receiver landscape.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/ZzAvg58
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