This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Don’t forget to check out “The Case AGAINST Ashton Jeanty” for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
Good morning, Your Honor, members of the jury, and welcome to another edition of Fantasy Court. Throughout this trial, I will present compelling evidence and a clear narrative that will substantiate my claim beyond any doubt. I am confident that you, the jury, and the fantasy court as a whole will see the truth in my case and deliver a fair and just verdict. Thank you for your attention.
Drafting an unproven rookie in the first round of fantasy drafts can feel risky, but Ashton Jeanty is not an ordinary prospect. His elite production profile, combined with rare athletic traits, places him in elite company and makes him worthy of comparison to some of the greatest RB prospects in NFL history. The label “generational talent” is often misused, yet with Jeanty, it feels justified. At 5’8” and 208 pounds, he is built like a bowling ball and runs with the kind of balance, strength, and determination that overwhelms defenders.
Skeptics may question the level of competition he faced in college, but Jeanty was so dominant that it is difficult to envision those concerns carrying over to the NFL. His landing spot with the Las Vegas Raiders has raised concerns about his rookie ceiling, with worries about offensive line play and scoring opportunities. However, those doubts appear overstated. The Raiders addressed both areas in the offseason, and Jeanty has the type of talent that can transcend supporting cast limitations.
Las Vegas is a fitting stage for his debut. Some managers will hesitate to push their chips in, but those willing to bet on Jeanty’s upside could cash in on one of the league’s breakout stars, with a top-tier fantasy finish well within reach in 2025.
The Total Package
For those not yet familiar with the phenom that is Ashton Jeanty, it is time to catch up on one of the most elite and complete RB prospects college football has produced in decades. Built for true bell-cow usage, he combines compact power with burst and agility that make him a nightmare to tackle.
Jeanty’s 2024 season was his defining statement. He won both the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top RB and the Maxwell Award for player of the year, while leading college football with 2,601 rushing yards on 374 carries. That total came within 28 yards of Barry Sanders’ legendary record from 1988. He also paced the nation in all-purpose yards (2,750), ranked second in FBS with 29 rushing TDs, and averaged a ridiculous 7.0 yards per carry across 14 starts. During his final year at Boise State, he accounted for 70% of his team’s rushing attempts per game, 77% of his team’s rushing yards per game, and 42% of the Broncos’ total yardage.
What sets Jeanty apart is not just his production, but how he creates it. He is the ultimate yardage generator, thriving regardless of blocking. His vision, balance, and elusiveness consistently force defenders into missed tackles, and even when they do make contact, he rarely goes down. In 2024, he racked up a staggering 1,970 yards after contact while averaging over five yards after contact per attempt. For context, that total topped the entire rushing output of several FBS teams and surpassed the nation’s second-highest mark in total rushing yards, held by Cam Skattebo, by a wide margin. He also broke the FBS record for missed tackles forced in a single season with an incredible 151.
Jeanty’s impact is not limited to the ground game. He is also a major threat as a receiver, recording over 500 receiving yards in 2023 and accounting for 23% of his team’s total receiving production that season. To put that into perspective, since 2013, only two RBs drafted in the first round have surpassed that mark in a single college season: Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs.
There are no real holes in his game. Jeanty can stay on the field for all three downs, gets stronger with volume, and has the tools to become the focal point of any offense. Simply put, he is a rare talent built to change the way a team moves the ball.
For a more complete analysis of Jeanty, check out a must-read Rookie Profile on the generational talent written by Matthew Betz.
Historic Comparisons
Now that we have broken down what makes Jeanty such a rare talent, let’s look at how elite RB prospects have performed as rookies in fantasy football. The Raiders selected him with the No. 6 overall pick, the highest RB taken since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 in 2018. First-round backs already carry a strong history of immediate fantasy impact, but those drafted inside the top 15 come with an even higher pedigree.
Since 2015, here’s how every RB selected in the top 15 has produced in their rookie season:
| Name | Year | Pick | Fantasy PPG | Fantasy Finish |
| Todd Gurley | 2015 | 10 | 15.2 | RB7 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2015 | 15 | 6.6 | RB50 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2016 | 4 | 20.6 | RB2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2017 | 4 | 16.3 | RB8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2017 | 8 | 11.8 | RB11 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2018 | 2 | 21.3 | RB2 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2023 | 8 | 12.8 | RB9 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2023 | 12 | 14.4 | RB10 |
Of the eight RBs drafted in this premium range since 2015, only one failed to finish their rookie year as a fantasy RB1. That is an impressive hit rate on its own. Narrow the focus to those taken inside the top eight, and the success is even more striking. Of the five backs drafted in that range, two delivered top-2 fantasy finishes as rookies, and their average finish as a group was RB6. With Jeanty joining this elite tier of draft capital, it is reasonable to expect a similar level of success and production in year one.
Given the skepticism around the situation Jeanty is walking into, it is worth looking at how circumstances lined up for other top-8 drafted backs. Of the five, only Leonard Fournette joined a team coming off a winning record. The other four were drafted by teams that went a combined 20-45 the year before, about as bad as it gets. Not surprisingly, most of those teams improved the following season, with the presence of an elite back playing a major role in the turnaround. The lone exception was Tampa Bay, which slipped from 9-7 in 2016 to 5-11 in Fournette’s rookie year, though he still managed an elite fantasy finish. The takeaway: a top-tier rookie RB can elevate an offense, and even in a losing environment, still thrive for fantasy.
That context matters significantly for Jeanty’s fantasy outlook. The Raiders went 4-13 last season with one of the league’s most dysfunctional offenses and arguably the worst rushing attack in football. While oddsmakers are not high on Las Vegas making a winning leap in 2025, the team has made key changes that should boost both Jeanty’s outlook and the offense overall, upgrades that may be getting overlooked because of how bad things were last year.
A New Era in Sin City
Las Vegas had one of the worst offenses in football last season, but the front office made sweeping changes to turn things around in 2025. The organization overhauled its management and coaching staff and brought in a new starting QB with a proven track record. Geno Smith may have stumbled early in his career, but his resurgence has been undeniable. He has posted a winning record in each of the past three seasons with Seattle, going 28-23 over that span. Now in Las Vegas, he will be supported by Jeanty in the backfield, one of the league’s most exciting young TEs in Brock Bowers, and a capable group of receivers.
The Raiders made a clear effort to upgrade their offensive line this offseason. While that is important, it is worth noting that Smith still led Seattle to a 10-7 record last year despite playing behind a below-average line. Las Vegas is aiming to give him a better foundation, signing veteran guard Alex Kappa in free agency and adding multiple linemen through the draft to solidify the trenches. It is still a work in progress, but hey, at least it is progressing.
Smith will also reunite with Pete Carroll, the coach who oversaw his resurgence in Seattle. Carroll has always preferred a run-first approach, and newly-hired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly brings a history of delivering it. Kelly’s NFL offenses finished in the top 10 in rushing yards three times in four seasons, including leading the league in 2013. Even in college, his offensive system consistently produced strong ground games, most recently powering Ohio State’s national title run last season.
Expecting the Raiders to instantly flip from Sin City to “Win City” in 2025 may be ambitious, but the changes they have made are too significant to ignore. Jeanty is stepping into a much better situation than last year’s results suggest, and he has the talent to be a central piece of the turnaround in his rookie season.
Closing Statement
It is easy to overthink the reasons why Jeanty might not justify his fantasy draft capital as a rookie, but both his pedigree and historical trends suggest otherwise. His upside and probability of immediate success outweigh the concerns. Currently going in the late first to early second round of drafts, he is priced exactly where he should be. In this range, managers can either pair him with a proven RB to stabilize their roster or grab an elite WR and still land a back with league-winning potential.
Additionally, elite RBs typically outscore elite WRs in fantasy, and the position is much shallower overall. Last season, the top five RBs averaged 18.52 fantasy points per game, compared to 16.78 for the top five WRs. This emphasizes the competitive edge of prioritizing RBs with elite upside early in drafts. While some may hesitate because he has yet to play an NFL snap, there is no RB in this range with a higher ceiling, and his floor is safer than many realize.
The doubts surrounding him feel more like prospect fatigue than legitimate red flags. We have talked about him for months, and after a quiet preseason, it is easy to lose perspective. But the preseason should not define him. He saw limited snaps in a watered-down offense that hardly scratched the surface of what he will be asked to do. Writing him off based on that sample is a mistake. The flashes were still there, hinting at the same explosive talent that made him a top-10 pick. When the regular season begins and the playbook opens, his full potential will be on display.
Freight train comin'
#SFvsLV |
FOX5 pic.twitter.com/7wRX7LNKcJ
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) August 16, 2025
We play fantasy football to win championships, and that often means embracing calculated risks that can separate you from the rest of the league. Ashton Jeanty is poised to take the NFL by storm as a rookie, and those who invest in him will reap the rewards. The alternative is playing it safe, passing on his upside, and watching someone bolder hoist the trophy instead.
I’ll leave you all with one final quote that came straight from the mouth of Mr. Jeanty: “It’s tackle football… I’d draft the guy they can’t tackle.”
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/UPr1Nf9
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