Two seasons ago, back when Justin Fields was still the Bears’ QB, DJ Moore had the only WR1 finish of his career. Last year, I took on the mission of laying out the path for him to do it again. It was possible, but it wasn’t easy. There was a lot of uncertainty surrounding Caleb Williams entering his rookie season, with Matt Eberflus the head coach and new weapons joining the team, including rookie WR Rome Odunze and seasoned veteran Keenan Allen. It wasn’t a great year, but it wasn’t a disaster either. DJ Moore finished as the WR22, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he could bounce back in 2025.
The Bears now have a new head coach in Ben Johnson, and Caleb Williams is expected to take a step forward in his sophomore season, especially playing behind a significantly improved offensive line. DJ Moore is currently being drafted as the WR21, and Andy, Mike, and Jason have him ranked four spots higher, at WR17.
Can DJ Moore deliver a second WR1 season? Let’s dive into the numbers to understand the high end of his range of outcomes. And don’t forget to get your hands on the Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft Kit for full statistical projections on every player.
2024 Season Recap
Last season marked DJ Moore’s fourth straight year playing in every game. He also had the third-highest snap share among all WRs in the league. He came just 34 yards short of the 1,000-yard mark, but oddly enough, he set a career-high in receptions and finished as the fourth-most-targeted WR in the league. So opportunity was definitely not the issue. The problem? He posted the lowest yards per reception of his entire career, a clear efficiency concern likely tied to the kind of passes Caleb Williams was throwing under constant pressure from a porous offensive line.
| 2024 Weekly Rank | Finishes |
| WR1 (1-12) | 4 |
| WR2 (13-24) | 0 |
| WR3 (25-36) | 6 |
| WR4 (36+) | 7 |
It was a volatile season. Moore only had a few WR1 finishes, none as a WR2, and he landed outside WR3 territory in seven different weeks, twice finishing lower than WR70. So, despite ending the year as a top-24 WR, Moore wasn’t the kind of player who helped you win your week. In many cases, he hurt more than he helped.
The Path for 2024
Let’s leave last year’s frustrations in the past and ask: What needs to happen for DJ Moore to finish as a WR1 again? At least we know he’s capable of doing it, and there’s no doubt he’s a very talented WR, one of the best in the league at earning targets and creating separation.
The issue, from his Carolina days until now, is that he’s always been a great receiver on a bad team. However, this year, the Bears appear committed to addressing what hasn’t worked and becoming a competitive franchise. If things click, DJ Moore could find the consistency he needs to crack the top 12 again.
Let’s take a closer look at what that path looks like.
Routes
Receptions come from accurate targets. But before a WR can earn a target, he has to be on the field running a route. And this is where DJ Moore excels. He had 100% route participation last season and ran 636 routes, the fourth-most in the NFL. He was targeted on 22% of those routes, slightly lower than his 2023 number, but still above the 20% threshold our editor-in-chief, Kyle Borgognoni, mentions as the minimum required to finish as a WR2 or better. Last offseason, there were doubts about how crowded the WR room would be. But DJ Moore proved he’s still the best target earner in Chicago.
Target Share
Moore’s 140 total targets in 2024 were very close to the 136 he saw the year before. Interestingly, last year that number was enough to place him inside the top 12 in total targets. Something he failed to achieve in 2023.
He led the team with a 26.6% target share. That’s slightly lower than in his previous WR1 season, but given that the Bears ranked sixth in total team targets (compared to second-to-last the year prior), it’s still a very solid percentage. And historically, a 20%+ target share is usually enough to put a player in the WR1 conversation.
Clearly, the offensive scheme shifted from Justin Fields to Caleb Williams, putting more emphasis on the passing game, something that should take another step forward this year with Ben Johnson as head coach. Moore’s total volume and target share should both see a slight boost. Rome Odunze will demand more looks in his second season as a pro. He’s talented enough to deserve them. But with Keenan Allen out of the picture, Caleb Williams should have no problem feeding two mouths.
Receptions & Catch Rate
As mentioned above, DJ Moore recorded the highest reception total of his career. He ranked as the WR9 in total receptions and had a 70% catch rate. While catch rate isn’t a particularly sticky stat, it does give me some peace of mind, because even with a rookie QB under pressure, Moore managed to sustain the same 70% catch rate he posted in his first year in Chicago. To put it in perspective, he averaged a 58% catch rate over his last three seasons in Carolina. So it’s reassuring to see that he can maintain efficiency even when catching passes from a rookie in a tough situation.
The issue, however, is that his yards per reception dropped from 14.2 to 9.9, the lowest of his career. Just one year ago, he was competing with elite names like Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua in 20+ yard receptions. Will he bounce back in that department with a new head coach and an overall offensive improvement?
Let’s hope so.
Yards & aDOT
While Moore’s yards per reception took a hit, he made up for it with his YAC ability, racking up 588 yards after the catch, the third most in the NFL. Where there’s real room for improvement is in the deep passing game. In his first year as a Bear, Moore ranked 5th in deep targets and earned nearly 40% of the team’s air yards. Last season, that dropped dramatically to just 20 deep targets and a 23.1% air yards share. His aDOT fell from 10.9 to 7.5.
That’s understandable when you watch the tape. Caleb Williams was constantly under pressure, rarely had a clean pocket, and often lacked confidence in holding the ball long enough for deep routes to develop. But this offseason, the Bears prioritized giving him time by investing in the offensive line and protecting the pocket. That should directly benefit the deep passing game, DJ Moore’s aDOT, and ultimately his chances of finishing as a WR1.
TDs
Moore scored two fewer TDs than the year before, but his red zone usage actually improved in 2024. He nearly doubled his red zone targets. The opportunity is there. If the Bears’ offense improves overall and gets into scoring position more consistently, Moore should see his TD total increase accordingly.
Conclusion
The Bears are still under reconstruction, but they’re clearly much closer to their final form heading into 2025. With a new head coach and a more mature Caleb Williams, who will have better protection and time to execute the playbook, this offense could finally find some rhythm.
DJ Moore is the Bears’ alpha WR. That was clear last season. And he is one of the best in the league at earning targets and running deep routes. In my opinion, he’s being drafted at his floor. And if things click in Chicago during the first year of the Ben Johnson era, there’s a very real path for him to finish as a WR1.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/KXkUEyA
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