If you are reading this, you are seeking an edge in fantasy football. Often, this requires identifying the next breakout star, like a receiver who rockets from obscurity to a WR1 season. For this to happen, three elements are crucial: a good-to-great QB, significant opportunity, and the ability to translate talent onto the field.
The fantasy football landscape is littered with “next big things” who never quite materialized. After a rookie season with modest numbers, many have already stamped Keon Coleman with the dreaded bust label. The Buffalo Bills‘ “Everybody Eats” philosophy, coupled with Coleman’s perceived rawness, has kept his ADP and dynasty value suppressed. But what if his quiet rookie year was merely the calm before the storm?
A zero-to-hero season for Coleman? Yes, it’s an aggressive take, yet such ascents have happened before. Beneath the surface-level statistics and the noise of a crowded receiver room lies a case for the former 33rd overall selection in 2024 to ascend to a top-12 fantasy WR in 2025. His unique physical profile, the skills evident on his college film and rookie season, his burgeoning connection with Josh Allen, and the inevitable evolution of the Bills’ offense all point towards a potential significant sophomore leap.
Now is the perfect time to buy low on Coleman.
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 Season series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2025 Path to WR1 Series Primer. Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2024 Season Recap
Before we dive into why Coleman is primed for a breakout, let’s address the elephant in the room: his rookie season. Standard statistics won’t entice managers to invest heavily in him through the draft or dynasty trade. His rookie season was interrupted by a Week 9 wrist injury that surely impacted the bottom line. These numbers put him behind fellow rookie wideouts and will bury him in fantasy managers’ priorities for 2025.
Let’s try this exercise. Which stat line belongs to Keon Coleman (don’t cheat):
| Player | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Succ% | R/G | Y/G | Ctch% | Y/Tgt |
| A | 16 | 66 | 38 | 446 | 11.7 | 3 | 48.5 | 2.4 | 27.9 | 57.6 | 6.8 |
| B | 14 | 60 | 33 | 446 | 13.5 | 1 | 48.3 | 2.4 | 31.9 | 55 | 7.4 |
| C | 13 | 57 | 29 | 556 | 19.2 | 4 | 43.9 | 2.2 | 42.8 | 50.9 | 9.8 |
Player A is none other than Davante Adams during his rookie season, who followed this season with another quiet year before his breakout. Player B is Nico Collins, a receiver we’ve seen explode for C.J. Stroud. Player C is Keon Coleman. This highlights a crucial point: no player is ever set in stone. Catch rates in the 50s, receptions per game floating around 2.3, success rates in the 40s, and targets ranging from 57 to 66 look plain dire for WR1 potential.
| Player | Height | Weight | Hand Size | Arm Length | 40-time | 10-yd Split | Vertical | Broad |
| Keon Coleman | 6’3¼” | 213 | 9⅜” | 32⅛” | 4.61 | 1.54 | 38″ | 127″ |
| Davante Adams | 6’1″ | 212 | 9″ | 32⅝” | 4.56s | 1.53s | 39½” | 123″ |
| Nico Collins | 6’4⅛”* | 215 | 9⅜”* | 34⅛”* | 4.45s* | 1.55s* | 37½”* | 125″* |
Other similarities these players shared include combine profile measurements, but Coleman’s 40-time was notably slower. However, the gauntlet speed is a better assessment of game speed due to the added element of concentration. Coleman’s 20.36 mph gauntlet speed surpassed last season’s record set by Puka Nacua (20.06 mph). Speed is not an issue.
Keon Coleman (@FSUFootball) reached the fastest speed of group 8 during the gauntlet drill (20.36 mph), despite recording the slowest forty time (4.61s).#NFLCombine x @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/1SioPdOPNU
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 2, 2024
A closer examination of his rookie year statistics reveals several significant positives. His 19.2 yards per reception was among the league leaders, showcasing his big-play ability. His opportunity was trending up by way of his game-by-game snaps in a strong correlation with his targets all season. There was a two-game hiccup in this trend after the aforementioned injury, but it quickly recovered to the pre-injury level. The trend suggests a growing trust with Allen and Joe Brady despite five drops over the season.
Critical self-awareness is an attractive trait, communicating a desire to improve. Coleman himself has been his harshest critic, famously calling his rookie performance “trash”.
Keon Coleman Calls His Rookie Tape 'Trash'@treydaubert #NFL #NFLTwitter #BillsMafiahttps://t.co/hgY9w0FdtI
— Vendetta Media (@VendettaVSM) June 12, 2025
In Alec White’s Minicamp Notebook, Coleman has openly stated his commitment to improving his route running techniques, getting out of breaks, and stacking DBs. He’s not resting on his draft capital; he is actively working to refine his game.
The Path to WR1 for 2025
Coleman’s path to a top-12 fantasy season in 2025 is not a pipe dream; it’s a tangible outcome supported by his physical gifts, the nuances of his college and rookie film, the natural evolution of the Bills’ offense, and his ideal fit with Josh Allen, an elite QB.
Before we dive into the details of how Coleman could accomplish this feat, let’s look at the marker he needs to hit. 2024’s WR12 overall was Ladd McConkey. Below is a comparison of their stats:
| Player | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Succ% | R/G | Y/G | Ctch% | Y/Tgt | FPts | FPts/G |
| McConkey | 16 | 112 | 82 | 1149 | 14 | 7 | 57.1 | 5.1 | 71.8 | 73.2 | 10.3 | 238.9 | 14.9 |
| Coleman | 13 | 57 | 29 | 556 | 19.2 | 4 | 43.9 | 2.2 | 42.8 | 50.9 | 9.8 | 108.6 | 8.4 |
From a PPG perspective, there is about a 6.5 point differential per game. This translates to three receptions and 35 yards or a TD reception. Obviously, an additional TD per game would put Coleman in Pro-Bowl consideration, but 2-3 additional receptions and 35 yards is completely reasonable. It’s a sizable amount of production to close this gap, but let’s explore how he could get there.
Target Share
Following the departure of Stefon Diggs, the Buffalo Bills‘ offense, under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, adopted an “Everybody Eats” philosophy. This approach aimed to distribute targets more broadly among the receiving corps, rather than relying on a single alpha. While noble in theory, this strategy often proves unsustainable.
In 2024, Khalil Shakir led the Bills’ wideouts with 821 receiving yards on 76 receptions (23% target share), while Dalton Kincaid (TE) saw 60 targets (20.2% share). While a diverse passing attack can be unpredictable, elite fantasy WRs will tip the target share in their favor. The “Everybody Eats” approach, if strictly adhered to, limits the ceiling of any individual pass-catcher. However, the best offenses often find their alpha, and a natural pecking order tends to emerge.
Moving on from Diggs and selecting a receiver of Coleman’s profile as the first pick in round 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft suggests they were seeking a replacement X-receiver. Given Coleman’s unique skill set, he should naturally improve upon his 2024 15.5% target share. The Bills need a player who can consistently win outside and downfield, and Coleman is their most physically gifted option for that role. This is where his “opportunity” resides.
Eight of the 11 other teams in the top 12 for passing yards featured a traditional X-receiver. If Buffalo is looking to elevate the passing game to another level, they need an X to emerge. The Bills’ offseason acquisitions included Elijah Moore, Laviska Shenault Jr., Joshua Palmer, and Kristian Wilkerson. None of them has true dominant X-receiver upside to eat into Coleman’s role.
Receptions and Catch Rate
Coleman’s rookie catch rate of 51.8% is an area that clearly needs improvement for him to reach WR1 status. However, his underlying talent and self-awareness suggest this is a highly coachable aspect of his game. Per PFF, Coleman possessed the 4th-best grade in 2023 for drops (3.8% drop rate), indicating he was sure-handed at FSU. I would expect his 2024 drop rate (13.5%) to regress to the mean in 2025.
My time in the Scouting Academy trained me to focus on what a player can do; when a player demonstrates a skill, even if inconsistently, it signals a coachable trait with upside. Focusing on a player’s deficiencies can blind one to the upside.
Demonstrated skills that should continue to boost his production with opportunity include his contested catch and ball tracking ability. Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception shows a 27.8% Contested Target Rate indicating QB trust, but a 60.0% Contested Catch Rate in 2024. Reception Perception also showed respectable success rates against Zone coverage (75.4%), though success versus Man coverages (65.5%) leaves a lot to be desired. A 55.1% Success Rate vs. Press is a cause for concern, but the college film indicates he has some ability here. Harmon’s “In-Season Rookie Report” also noted Coleman’s high success rate in “other” routes, which include improvisational routes and drag/over routes. Josh Allen has looked for Coleman consistently during scramble drills, and Coleman frequently finds space. Additionally, Coleman’s long speed on the drag/over routes consistently increases margins on out-leveraged DBs.
While the numbers paint Coleman’s path with a gloomy aura, focusing on the positives is how you see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. The contested target rate indicates a willingness to provide him with those opportunities; however, without evidence in practice, this doesn’t occur. The expectation of drop rate regression is encouraging for explosive plays and overall production. His success versus Zone is nice because modern NFL defenses play more Zone than Man (FantasyPoints “NFL Coverage Bible – Broad Coverage”).
Yards and aDOT
Coleman was clearly targeted downfield more than any other Bills receiver. FTNFantasy shows he drew 21.03% (or 864) of the team air yards, which is total receiving yards intended, including both complete and incomplete pass targets. Coupled with 19.2 yards per reception (4th, min. 40 targets), this flags him as a big-play threat. He also garnered an aDOT of 15.2 (7th, min. 40 targets), further cementing Allen’s desire to get him the ball downfield. He was only able to connect on 4 of 17 (23.5%) deep shots. For every rookie, the speed of the game can cause uncharacteristic inconsistency. Once he can adjust, Coleman could easily reduce his drop frequency and connect on more of these high-leverage plays.
I do wonder what it looks like to get him in space more, especially on routes like slants, drags, and overs. His YAC/Rec was good for 7th, which shows his skillset translating from college. He definitely demonstrated his long speed, elusiveness with loose hips and good vision, and play strength with balance to play through glancing contact last season.
TDs
Coleman finished his rookie year with four TDs. For a WR1 season, this number needs to see a significant jump. The most compelling argument for Coleman’s ascent lies in his QB, Josh Allen. Allen is a gunslinger with one of the strongest arms in the NFL and an aggressive mentality. He thrives throwing into tight windows and excels at targeting big-bodied receivers who can win contested catches downfield. This is a match made in fantasy heaven for Coleman.
In the “UDK Toolbox: Red Zone Report,” I highlighted the precision spread of opportunities across three players: Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Keon Coleman. Josh Allen will likely seek opportunities to get the ball to a bigger target when in the red zone. If Coleman’s processing speed and release quickness improve in the slightest, the scoring opportunity will be too much for Josh Allen and Joe Brady to ignore. Kincaid could be an obstacle to Coleman in this regard with his 6‘4”, 240 lb. build, but he simply doesn’t have the vertical explosiveness or the quickness to be a real threat to fades or other jump ball opportunities.
It should be noted that Keon Coleman converted two 2-point conversions in 2024. They aren’t TDs, but these types of plays have the same elements as other 10-Zone passes: far less room for receivers to work, more traffic to consider, and less time to execute. While these plays have different values in fantasy versus reality, they enhance our perception of his skills and potential near the goal line.
Conclusion: The Buy-Low Window is Open
Keon Coleman‘s path to a top-12 fantasy season in 2025 surely has a lot of obstacles to overcome, but remember, it is not without precedent. The line to gain, so to speak, is McConkey’s 2023 stat line. Considering the woeful starts of other established receivers like Adams and Collins, we must open our minds to this path to WR1 being real for Coleman.
The elements of the path to WR1 are there. There is an outstanding QB in Josh Allen who trusts Coleman. The opportunity: Coleman is the only one on the depth chart with traits to fill the X-receiver role. Finally, we have seen the ability in flashes, but as the speed of the game slows down and coaching sets in, Coleman could realize his WR1 potential. The current market undervalues him, offering a rare opportunity for savvy fantasy managers.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/Om1hEbV
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