With NFL Training Camps officially starting, the fantasy football season is getting so close we can almost taste it! To make sure fantasy managers are fully prepped on the changes from the end of last year, the Ballers are walking through each NFL division to lay the groundwork for what should be expected for each team’s fantasy output!
With the AFC East, North, and South out of the way, Andy, Mike, and Jason are ready to take one of the two divisions in the league to put three teams into the playoffs last season with the AFC West! While the Chiefs have dominated this division for the better part of a decade, winning nine-straight AFC West titles, there isn’t as clear a path for them to make it ten in a row after the Broncos and Chargers took massive steps forward in 2024, making the playoffs and both winning 10 games.
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Let’s Get Divisional!
Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Player Additions: RB Elijah Mitchell, RB Kareem Hunt, WR Juju Smith-Schuster
Player Subtractions: WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Justin Watson, RB Samaje Perine
Rookies: WR Jalen Royals (Round 4), RB Brashard Smith (Round 7)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 11.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA Play | Pass EPA | Rush EPA |
| 12 | 19 | 10 | 23 | 15 | 26 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Starting with the kings of the division, the Chiefs look to close out a decade of dominance in the AFC West, where Patrick Mahomes has a 33-5 career record. The fantasy conversation around Kansas City really begins around their QB, with exactly what kind of Chiefs offense fantasy managers can expect to have pieces of this season. For the second-straight season, Mahomes has been a bit of a disappointment for fantasy managers with QB8 and QB11 finishes over the last two seasons. More importantly, Mahomes has posted a nasty “F” in the Ballers’ Consistency Ratings over his last 17 games, scoring 20+ fantasy points in just 23.5% of those games alongside career lows in passing yards, yards per attempt, and TD rate.
If there’s hope for Mahomes to get back to the fantasy darling we used to know, it will come with success from his two young WRs, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. Rice was absolutely killing it to start 2024, seeing a target on 35% of his routes and averaging 17.6 fantasy points per game in his first three games. While injury cut Rice’s season short, it has to be encouraging for fantasy managers that there’s that type of volume available for the WR alongside Mahomes. Worthy’s rookie season gave fantasy managers enough of the high-speed offense the Chiefs have been lacking since the departure of Tyreek Hill. Marquise Brown is still in town after missing a large part of the 2024 season due to injury, but could factor into the passing game for deeper fantasy leagues. The key for fantasy managers will be choosing which WR could take the step forward for Kansas City to be the premier target the team has been missing in recent years.
Speaking of premier targets, it’s sad to say we seem to be seeing the end of the great Travis Kelce fantasy run. For the first time since 2016, Kelce finished outside the top-5 TEs in fantasy last season, despite leading all TEs in red zone targets. While Kelce will likely still be very involved in the offense for Kansas City, it feels like his elite days may be over, which, at the very least, is being reflected in his draft capital going in the late 6th round currently.
Perhaps the biggest question mark for fantasy managers from the Chiefs offense has to be who will be leading the backfield. While the starting Chiefs RB has been a very valuable piece to have on a fantasy roster, Isiah Pacheco’s injury early in the season led to a muddied backfield between him and Kareem Hunt by the end of the season. If Pacheco has fully healed from the fractured fibula, he could return to his 15+ touches per game fantasy managers were hoping to see last season, but the Chiefs brought back Hunt as a free agent, so there could be more of a split backfield than we usually want for fantasy goodness. The wild card in the RB for Kansas City could be rookie RB Brashard Smith, who enters the league with just one real season playing RB in college after transitioning from WR. Smith is an explosive athlete who could provide PPR value if he’s able to carve out a role in the passing game.
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Player Additions: RB Najee Harris, TE Tyler Conklin, QB Trey Lance
Player Subtractions: RB JK Dobbins, WR Joshua Palmer
Rookies: RB Omarion Hampton (Round 1), WR Tre Harris (Round 2), WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (5th Round), TE Oronde Gadsden II (5th Round)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA Play | Pass EPA | Rush EPA |
| 13 | 20 | 23 | 10 | 19 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 19 |
The first year of Jim Harbaugh in Los Angeles saw the Chargers return to the playoffs with the most wins in Justin Herbert’s career. There was plenty of concern about Herbert’s fantasy value heading into last season, given Harbaugh and new Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman’s known affinity for running the ball early and often. This strategy proved true to start the year. However, after the team’s Bye Week in Week 4, the Chargers opened up their passing game, allowing Herbert to provide solid fantasy value down the stretch of the season. From Week 8 to the end of the season, Herbert posted eight top-12 fantasy finishes, most in the league behind only Lamar Jackson during that span. If there was a gripe for Herbert’s fantasy output last year, it would be the lack of “boom” games, only scoring more than 25 fantasy points once all season. Still, Herbert could prove to be a value for fantasy managers in drafts this season, currently going in the 9th round.
A large contributor to the late-season success of the Chargers’ passing game has to be tied to Ladd McConkey’s superb rookie season at WR. McConkey emerged as one of Herbert’s favorite targets in LA’s offense, finishing the season averaging 2.57 yards per route run. The only three rookie WRs in the last decade to post higher YPRR numbers were Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Brown, and Justin Jefferson. McConkey’s emergence correlates directly with Herbert’s hot play starting in Week 8. After that point, McConkey was the WR8 in fantasy ranking, ninth in receiving yards, seventh in YPRR, and eighth in yards per team pass attempt.
McConkey wasn’t the only fantasy-relevant WR that emerged in LA, with Quentin Johnston recovering from a dreadful rookie year in 2023. Johnston finished the season with seven finishes in the top 30, which was aided by eight TD catches and a 23.5% target per route run.
The WR room for the Chargers did get more competition for targets this offseason with the addition of Tre Harris in the draft. Harris enters the league with one of the more impressive analytical profiles from the 2025 Draft Class after averaging 5.15 yards per route run in college, the highest of any WR drafted over the last decade. The 2nd round pick should press Johnston for playing time early in the season and could be a sneaky later round gem for fantasy managers.
The rookie fever really heats up in LA with the RB room, where the Chargers added Omarion Hampton with their 1st round pick. Hampton profiles as a “do it all” RB that could be a deadly fantasy asset when given the opportunity and ranked in the 100th percentile in yards after contact among RB prospects. The draft price in the 4th round of fantasy drafts is a bit steep, but history says it should pay off for fantasy managers. Since 2011, 1.5 rookie RBs per year have been drafted in the first four rounds of fantasy drafts. All of those RBs who were selected in the 1st round of the NFL draft finished RB17 or higher, except one, so the bet is pretty strong for Hampton to return value.
If there is a reason for pause when drafting Hampton this draft season, the Chargers’ addition of Najee Harris to the RB room is it. Harris joins LA after spending four seasons in Pittsburgh, where he ranked number one in the league among RBs in games played (68) and total touches (1277). While it’s unclear what the split will look like between Harris and the rookie Hampton, it’s likely that both players will factor into the backfield to start the season, with things leaning Hampton’s way towards the end of the season.
At TE, there isn’t a ton of hope for real value with the number of weapons elsewhere in the Chargers’ offense. Will Dissly (cue the Big Montana banjos) provided spot starts for fantasy managers last season with three top-10 TE finishes last season. The addition of Tyler Conklin could muddy the waters enough to make neither TE truly predictable in usage for fantasy managers this season.
Denver Broncos (10-7)
Player Additions: RB JK Dobbins,TE Evan Engram
Player Subtractions: RB Javonte Williams, QB Zach Wilson
Rookies: RB RJ Harvey (Round 2), WR Pat Bryant (Round 3)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA Play | Pass EPA | Rush EPA |
| 10 | 22 | 18 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 15 |
Perhaps the surprise team from 2024, the Broncos are looking to build on their first playoff appearance since Peyton Manning led them to the Super Bowl in 2015. Sean Payton seems to have found his guy at QB with Bo Nix after a great rookie season. While Nix started slow, he finished as the QB7 on the season behind seven top-12 weekly finishes at the position. Nix’s 29 passing TDs as a rookie were the second-most for a rookie all-time, and he led the league in passing yards outside the pocket while adding 430 rushing yards and four TDs. Maybe the biggest question for the Broncos is if there’s any “sophomore slump” for Nix and the Denver offense.
One way to ensure there’s no real “slump” from the offense in the Mile High City would be to improve on one of the more frustrating fantasy RB rooms that failed to produce a relevant fantasy asset despite Denver leading the league in RB target share. The Broncos went out of their way to address RB this offseason, drafting RJ Harvey in the 2nd round of the draft. Harvey averaged the highest yards before contact in this loaded RB class, hitting 2.92 for his collegiate career.
Despite the excitement around Harvey in Denver, there will be competition for touches with JK Dobbins joining the backfield. Dobbins proved he still had some juice in LA last season, rushing for 130+ yards in his first two games, but averaged just 3.8 yards per carry from Week 3 on. Perhaps having more of a split backfield with the Broncos will allow for more sustained success from both Dobbins and Harvey throughout the season.
The passing game in Denver could be a place for improvement in 2025, with 17% of the team’s plays resulting in 10+ yards last season. Courtland Sutton was the lone bright spot at WR for the Broncos in 2024, finishing as the WR13 on the year. Sutton was very dependent on getting in the end zone though, averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game less last season when he didn’t catch a TD.
There may not be much clarity behind Sutton in the passing game to start the season. A mixture of Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele, and rookie Pat Bryant will have to shake out before fantasy managers really know if they can even consider another pass catcher in Denver as a FLEX option. The lottery ticket may be Bryant, who the Broncos drafted in the 3rd round in the 2025 Draft. Bryant has a big body and is a strong route-runner who could excel in Payton’s offense.
If there’s a wildcard for fantasy success in Denver, TE Evan Engram may be it. Engram joined the Broncos as a free agent this summer, and while his receptions per game has dropped since his TE2 season in 2023, there’s still opportunity in Denver’s offense for him to find fantasy relevance.
Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)
Player Additions: QB Geno Smith, RB Raheem Mostert
Player Subtractions: QB Gardner Minshew II, RB Alexander Mattison, WR Terrace Marshall Jr.
Rookies: RB Ashton Jeanty (Round 1), WR Jack Bech (Round 2), WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. (Round 4)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 6.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Total YPG | Pass % | Rush % | Pass YPG | Rush YPG | EPA Play | Pass EPA | Rush EPA |
| 29 | 27 | 3 | 30 | 13 | 32 | 31 | 25 | 32 |
The term for the offseason in Las Vegas has been “stability,” and that’s exactly what the hire of Pete Carroll brings to the Raiders. While Carroll will be the oldest Head Coach in NFL history, his addition, along with new Offensive Coordinator Chip Kelly, should pay dividends early for the competitiveness of the team as a whole.
All eyes in the Raiders offense to start the season will be on rookie RB Ashton Jeanty, who they drafted with the 6th pick in the 2025 Draft. Jeanty carries lofty expectations into his first fantasy season, going off the board in the mid-2nd round in drafts. Since 2013, Jeanty is one of only three RBs drafted in the 1st round who exceeded 20% of their team’s receiving yards in a single collegiate season. The other two were Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Raiders know about having a rookie fantasy star on their roster, with Brock Bowers entering his sophomore season after finishing as the TE1 overall in 2024. Bowers led all WRs and TEs in fourth quarter fantasy points while trailing (which the Raiders did a lot to be fair). As a rookie, Bowers had 61 first downs receiving, the third most of any rookie pass-catcher over the last decade. Still, though, there’s room for improvement since Bowers gained the fewest fantasy points of any top-10 TE on plays inside the 10-yard line since 2009. Despite the high price tag, Bowers will give fantasy managers a huge advantage at TE all season.
Part of having Bowers’ ceiling raised comes with the addition of QB Geno Smith. Smith raises the floor of the QB play in Las Vegas tremendously, coming off a 2024 season where he set career-highs in completion percentage (70.4%), passing yards, and pass success percentage. While Geno brings better QB play to the surrounding pieces in the Raiders offense, his fantasy ceiling may be limited. Last season, Smith had just two games of multiple TD passes and a TD rate of just 3.6%.
There aren’t many real fantasy WR options in Vegas, though Jakobi Meyers could be a sneaky FLEX option to have on a roster. Meyers saw 30% of the Raiders’ first-read targets last season, which is a higher rate than that of Tee Higgins and Brian Thomas Jr.
Outside of Meyers though, it’s a roll at the roulette table for whether or not another WR can emerge for fantasy managers between Tre Tucker or rookies Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton Jr. Tucker has proven he can play in the NFL with his tremendous speed, but may lack the size to have any real staying power longterm. Speaking of speed, Thornton has both size and speed (6’5” and 4.30 40-time) but may be just a best ball dart throw as a rookie unless he can develop more of a route tree. Bech may take a little longer to come along, but could have the best chance to be a real fantasy option later in the season and could be worth a stash.
Who Wins the AFC West?
| Andy | Mike | Jason |
| Broncos | Chiefs | Chargers |
| Chiefs | Broncos | Chiefs |
| Chargers | Chargers | Broncos |
| Raiders | Raiders | Raiders |
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/SW4onsg
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