Some players, despite their obvious talent and potential, continue to get overlooked in fantasy drafts year after year. For Courtland Sutton, that disrespect may have once been justified. After what looked like a Year 2 breakout with a WR19 finish in 2019, he suffered a devastating knee injury and then failed to crack the top 35 at the position in any of the next four seasons. He seemed destined to be yet another WR whose prime was wasted by injuries and poor QB play. However, last season, Denver finally found stability under center. Rookie Bo Nix started off slow but emerged as one of the league’s most promising young QBs down the stretch. Sutton thrived as his top target, finishing as the WR13 in what was the best fantasy season of his seven-year career.
Rather than viewing that breakout as an outlier, it may be wiser to see it as the start of a new chapter. With Nix leading the offense, it is time to shift focus away from Sutton’s inconsistent past and lean into the new reality. Now entering a contract year and approaching 30, Sutton is positioned to be the veteran cornerstone of a rising offense. With minimal competition for targets and a QB who can elevate his game, Sutton not only has a clear path to volume but also room for even greater efficiency. Among WRs ranked outside the Ballers’ consensus top 15, few offer Sutton’s blend of opportunity and upside. If Nix takes the next step as expected, Sutton’s long-awaited first WR1 season may finally be within reach.
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 Season series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2025 Path to WR1 Series Primer. Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2024 Season Recap
The 2024 season was a special one for Sutton, even if it is not getting the recognition it deserves heading into 2025 fantasy drafts. As mentioned earlier, he had the best fantasy season of his career, finishing as the WR13 and hitting several statistical milestones. He set career highs in targets (135) and receptions (81), while posting the second-best yardage total (1,081) and TD mark (8) of his career. The increase in volume without matching his previous peaks in yards and scores suggests there is still room for growth if efficiency improves.
What makes his final stat line even more impressive is how slowly the year started. Sutton managed just 277 yards and two TDs over the first seven games and even had a zero-target outing in Week 7. But from that low point, he turned things around in dramatic fashion. He posted back-to-back 100-yard games in Weeks 8 and 9 and looked like a different player the rest of the way. From Weeks 8 to 18, Sutton averaged nearly 15 fantasy points per game and saw nine or more targets in eight of the final ten contests. He emerged as the clear top option in Denver and became Nix’s go-to receiver. The trust from the rookie QB was evident as Sutton ranked second in the NFL with 47 third-down targets.
The Path for 2025
| Categories | 10-Year WR1 Averages | Courtland Sutton (2024 Season) | Courtland Sutton (Career Highs) |
| Targets | 146.1 | 135 | 135 (2024) |
| Receptions | 97.2 | 81 | 81 (2024) |
| Receiving Yards | 1305 | 1,081 | 1,112 (2019) |
| TDs | 9.3 | 8 | 10 (2023) |
For the first time in years, the Broncos appear to have a stable foundation in place. After the failed Russell Wilson experiment (let’s never ride again) and a carousel of underwhelming QB play, Denver may have finally found its answer with the pairing of HC Sean Payton and QB Bo Nix. The offensive line ranks among the league’s best, and several key contributors return to help build on last season’s progress.
The free-agent addition of TE Evan Engram gives Nix another reliable target, but Sutton remains the clear WR1 and Alpha. Denver leaned heavily on the passing game last season due to an ineffective ground attack. The arrivals of RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins should bring more balance, but in a high-powered AFC West, the Broncos will still need to air it out to keep pace. With Nix aiming for a Year 2 leap, Sutton is positioned for another strong fantasy season and could crack WR1 territory for the first time after finishing just outside the top 12 a year ago.
Target Share
Target share can be difficult to project year over year in the NFL, largely due to offseason roster turnover. Fortunately for Sutton, Denver made minimal changes this offseason that would significantly impact his massive target share from last year. The Broncos tied for sixth in the league in WR target rate, with 66% of their throws going to the position. Sutton was the primary beneficiary, seeing 135 targets, the 13th most in the NFL, and commanding a 24.6% target share. While that total was still 11 targets shy of the 10-year average for a fantasy WR1, it puts him firmly in the mix for a top-12 finish if he sees similar usage in 2025. Sutton’s target share also saw a notable increase as Nix grew more comfortable with NFL play, drawing 9+ targets in eight of the final ten regular-season games, which is a promising trend for his future outlook.
Denver’s biggest offseason addition was TE Evan Engram. After an up-and-down tenure in New York, Engram revived his career in Jacksonville and has ranked near the top of his position in targets over the past couple of seasons. His arrival could cut slightly into Sutton’s volume but may also draw enough defensive attention to boost Sutton’s efficiency. The Broncos added minimal competition at WR in the draft, selecting Pat Bryant in the third round. While he brings talent and fresh legs, he does not pose an immediate threat to Sutton’s WR1 role. Outside of Engram and Bryant, Sutton’s primary competition for targets will come from Marvin Mims Jr., Devaughn Vele, and Troy Franklin. While all are expected to have defined roles, none are likely to challenge Sutton’s volume.
Despite inefficient production from their backfield, Denver continued to heavily involve its RBs in the passing game. Javonte Williams saw 70 targets last season, fifth among all backs, yet totaled under 350 receiving yards. With the additions of Harvey, Dobbins, and a healthy Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver hopes to improve efficiency in this area. A more effective run game could reduce pass volume in positive game scripts. Still, Sutton should be locked in for well over 100 targets if healthy and remains the clear lead option in a stable and evolving offense.
Receptions and Catch Rate
Unsurprisingly, Sutton’s career-high in targets last season led to a personal best in receptions, finishing with 81. He caught 60% of his targets, a respectable rate, though low enough to suggest he left some points on the table. With improved efficiency, there is room for even more production.
It is fair to say Sutton’s slow start played a major role in the gap. Over the first seven games, he averaged just three receptions per game and topped four catches only once. In contrast, he averaged six receptions per game over the final ten weeks. That pace, stretched over a full 17-game season, would have resulted in 102 receptions and put him comfortably in range of the WR1 threshold. Still, it is impressive and somewhat surprising that Sutton finished just one spot shy of WR1 territory, despite recording 16 fewer receptions than the 10-year average for a fantasy WR1.
Catch rate is not often considered a sticky stat, as it is heavily influenced by the types of targets a player receives. That said, Sutton’s efficiency could improve significantly with Nix’s expected development and the benefit of less defensive attention thanks to the addition of Engram and a stronger run game. One area where Sutton already excelled was contested catches, where he led the league by hauling in 61% of such opportunities. With Nix’s willingness to push the ball downfield, Sutton’s size, catch radius, and strong hands make him an ideal target and a candidate for even greater fantasy upside.
Yards and aDOT
Despite setting career highs in both targets and receptions last season, Sutton fell short of a personal best in receiving yards. Back in 2019, he totaled 31 more yards on 11 fewer targets. While his yardage total could have been stronger, Sutton still eclipsed 1,000 yards for the second time in his career and more than doubled the next closest Denver pass-catcher in receiving yards.
Looking closer at his final ten games, Sutton averaged just over 80 receiving yards per contest. Over a full 17-game season, that pace would have resulted in 1,377 yards, which once again clears the WR1 benchmark. His first seven games, however, were underwhelming from a yardage perspective. He failed to reach 70 yards in any of them, posted fewer than 40 yards in four, and recorded a complete dud in Week 7. While it is fair to question whether his second-half surge is sustainable or if the early struggles should carry weight, the timing of Sutton’s breakout aligning with Nix’s emergence suggests better days could be ahead.
Two of the more predictive metrics for WRs, average depth of target (aDOT) and air yards, paint an encouraging picture for Sutton’s 2025 outlook. Among players with 50 or more receptions, he ranked fifth in aDOT at 13.2 last season. He also finished near the top of the league in total air yards with just over 1,800, an elite mark. Over the final ten games, Sutton commanded 48.7% of Denver’s air yards, the highest rate in the NFL during that stretch. If that usage carries into 2025, Sutton should be headed for the best fantasy season of his career.
TDs
Most Receiving TDs Over the Last Two Seasons (2023 & 2024):
| Ranking | Player | Total TDs (2023 & 2024) |
| 1 | Mike Evans | 24 |
| 2 | Ja’Marr Chase | 24 |
| 3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 22 |
| 4 | Tyreek Hill | 19 |
| 5 | Jordan Addison | 19 |
| 6 | Courtland Sutton | 18 |
| 7 | CeeDee Lamb | 18 |
| 8 | Mark Andrews | 17 |
| 9 | Terry McLaurin | 17 |
| 10 | Sam LaPorta | 17 |
In fantasy football, yardage matters, but TDs often separate good players from great ones. Fortunately, all signs point to Sutton remaining a major scoring threat. In addition to his dominance in air yards and aDOT, Sutton has the tools to be a consistent TD contributor. While his production in this area has been inconsistent, he has shown elite upside over the past two seasons, scoring ten TDs in 2023 and following that up with eight last year. His previous two seasons were far less encouraging, with just two TDs in both 2021 and 2022.
That dip likely says more about the offenses he played in than his actual red zone ability. The outlook is far more promising now with Nix under center. As a rookie, Nix finished with the sixth-most passing TDs in the NFL, throwing more than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jayden Daniels. When the Broncos reached scoring range, Nix routinely looked Sutton’s way. As a result, Sutton ranked in the top five in both red zone and end zone target share and saw 22 red zone targets, the ninth-most in the league.
While Engram could cut into that usage, his career TD numbers suggest Sutton will remain the primary red zone threat. Engram has averaged just over three TDs per season and had only one in nine games last year. At 6’4” and 216 pounds, Sutton combines the size to overpower defenders with the route-running chops to separate in tight spaces. If Denver’s offense takes a step forward as expected, Sutton not only has a chance to match last season’s TD total but could very well exceed it.
Conclusion
Courtland Sutton has steadily shown that his early-career struggles were more about injuries and inconsistent QB play than a lack of talent. Even after finishing as the WR13 last season, skepticism remains about whether he can maintain that level of production. But make no mistake, Sutton not only has the ability to sustain it, he is in a strong position to exceed it in 2025.
According to Marvin Elequin’s Dynasty Lifecycle of WRs article, WRs typically hit their peak in both fantasy value and per-game production between the ages of 25.5 and 30.5. Nearly 63% of WR1 seasons occur during this range, with the highest average points per game coming in Year 8 of a player’s career. Coincidentally, Sutton is entering that exact season. While Marvin’s article may suggest exploring trade options at this point in a player’s dynasty value arc, it also reinforces the idea that Sutton’s peak season could be coming. This feels especially true when you factor in the improved situation around him.
The Ballers currently have Sutton ranked WR24 in their consensus rankings, with all three placing him outside their top 20. He is also carrying a fifth-round ADP, which feels misaligned with his production and upside. That gap between perception and reality makes Sutton one of the best values in fantasy drafts this year. I am fully buying in and expect Sutton to finally break through with his first WR1 finish in 2025.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/jEOPG2B
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