With the NFL Divisional recaps nearing the finish line, the Ballers visit the NFC South, a division that went down to the wire for the second year in a row. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers once again claimed the title in Week 18, but it always feels like a couple of bounces in a different direction can change the standings of this division. As Andy mentioned in the opening of the breakdown, this is a division that you can picture going several different ways from top to bottom. Will Tampa Bay win the division for the third year in a row, or will Michael Penix Jr. lead Atlanta to the top? Can Carolina achieve its first winning season since 2017? And can new head coach Kellen Moore change the equation in New Orleans?
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Let’s Get Divisional!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Player Additions: No one of note on offense
Player Subtractions: No one of note on offense
Rookies: WR Emeka Egbuka (Round 1), WR Tez Johnson (Round 7)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Atts | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Atts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 4th | 10th | 3rd | 3rd | 10th | 4th | 14th |
For all intents and purposes, the Buccaneers are running it back after a successful 2024 campaign. The two major differences are the addition of first-round rookie WR Emeka Egbuka, adding to the already potent offense, and the new offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard (AKA J-Grizz).
Chris Godwin is the other notable variable for this offense, as his return from an ankle fracture he suffered in the middle of last season clouds the distribution of targets. Godwin was seeing a 27% target share and was the overall WR2 through the first seven weeks of the season before his injury. Mike Evans was still a factor, but his production increased when he returned from a three-game injury absence, and Godwin was done for the season.
Egbuka further adds a shroud of mystery to the fantasy landscape of the pass-catchers, likely making fellow wideout Jalen McMillan and TE Cade Otton fantasy irrelevant barring injuries.
Perhaps the biggest question falls on the shoulders of QB Baker Mayfield, who was a revelation last season. Granted, he played for some dysfunctional teams in the earlier part of his career, but it’s rare for a veteran QB entering his seventh season to total career highs in passing yards (4,500), passing TDs (41), and rushing yards (378). And not only did he surpass his career numbers, he demolished them.
Will he be able to maintain his stellar TD pace? Andy and Jason find themselves on opposite sides of the argument. While Jason still thinks Mayfield will finish as a QB1, he has him ranked as his QB12, while Andy thinks he will land somewhere between QB3 and QB7. TD regression is pretty much inevitable, but in an offense that didn’t lose anyone of note but instead added more firepower, throwing for 30-plus TDs is very much in the range of possibilities.
And when it comes to the running game, the Ballers are all in agreement when it comes to Bucky Irving. They believe he will excel this season, but his draft price leaves little room for error as he is being drafted at his ceiling. Mike also made it a point to mention Rachaad White, who, despite his inefficiency on the ground, still finished as a top-24 RB last season. White will factor in the running game, likely capping Irving’s upside.
Atlanta Falcons (8-9)
Player Additions: QB Easton Stick
Player Subtractions: TE Ross Dwelley
Rookies: No one of note on offense
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 7.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Atts | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Atts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 13th | 14th | 5th | 21st | 8th | 10th | 9th |
The Atlanta Falcons were expected to do better last season, as projected by their 9.5 Vegas win total. But the Kirk Cousins experiment didn’t quite pan out, and while the early draft selection of Michael Penix Jr. led to mixed reviews, it’s safe to say the Falcons are happy to have a fresh start with a young QB.
It still remains to be seen if Penix is the long-term answer, however. The 25-year-old signal caller started the last three games of the season, throwing for 737 yards, three TDs, and three INTs, plus one rushing TD. The Falcons went 1-2 in his starts, losing to the Commanders and Panthers. Both games went to overtime.
While Penix looked good at times during that stretch, particularly for Drake London‘s fantasy output, three games are not a big enough sample size to reach any sort of verdict. And he played against less-than-average defenses during that span.
Penix will have a stout offensive line to help him along the way, ranked in the top 10 according to PFF. The O-Line will prove even more beneficial for Bijan Robinson, a worthy No. 1 overall fantasy pick for managers choosing to go the RB route. Robinson is one of the best RBs in the game, a true workhorse back who can’t be game-scripted out due to his catching prowess.
Aside from Bijan, London is the other top fantasy option in Atlanta, currently going in the early second round of drafts. Darnell Mooney had some fantasy-relevant games last year, but London is the clear alpha receiver in the offense.
And who could forget Kyle Pitts, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, who is still just 24 years of age. No matter how many times he breaks your heart, it’s hard to quit Pitts, especially now that he may go unselected in fantasy drafts. The allure of his athleticism and young age, plus the fact that he is in a contract year, leads Jason to believe that there is still hope.
Carolina Panthers (5-12)
Player Additions: RB Rico Dowdle
Player Subtractions: RB Miles Sanders, TE Ian Thomas
Rookies: RB Trevor Etienne (Round 4), WR Tetairoa McMillan (Round 1), WR Jimmy Horn Jr. (Round 6), TE Mitchell Evans (Round 5)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 6.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Atts | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Atts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 23rd | 19th | 30th | 16th | 27th | 18th | 10th |
The Carolina Panthers‘ point differential from last year, -193, doesn’t instill confidence for the upcoming season. The Panthers also allowed the most points (534) of all time and the second-most total yards of all time.
While it doesn’t equate to success on the field, having a bad defense usually leads to fantasy gold for the offense, so can Bryce Young and company bring that to fruition this year? Mike thinks so, as he laid out the argument of Young’s improvement over the back half of last season, plus the addition of top 10 pick Tetairoa McMillan.
Young improved drastically after being benched midway through the season, leading the Panthers to the 12th-best scoring output in the NFL after Week 12 (25 points per game). McMillan slides in as the WR1 for the team, moving Xavier Legette to the WR2, and Adam Thielen is still there to provide a veteran presence and safety blanket. With what looks to be an improving offense, plus a bad defense, the formula that leads to fantasy success could very well be in place. Or as Mike called it, “stinky treasures.”
Chuba Hubbard, the RB7 from Week 3 to Week 16 last year, still has a lock on the RB room after a successful 2024 campaign and contract extension. Rico Dowdle will spell Hubbard at times, and Hubbard struggled last year in the passing game. Regardless, he is one of the rare exceptions where an RB is able to find success on an underwhelming offense.
New Orleans Saints (5-12)
Player Additions: RB Cam Akers, WR Brandin Cooks
Player Subtractions: RB Jamaal Williams, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Rookies: QB Tyler Shough (Round 2), RB Devin Neal (Round 6), TE Moliki Matavao (Round 7)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 7.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Atts | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Atts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 24th | 17th | 23rd | 22nd | 21st | 14th | 18th |
The Saints got off to a blazing start last year, winning their first two games handily, outscoring the Panthers and Cowboys by a combined 91 – 29 margin. But it was all downhill from there. New Orleans lost its next seven games, head coach Dennis Allen got fired midway through the season (much to Jason’s delight), and Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Derek Carr all missed a large chunk of the season.
The Saints can no longer bring in the Carr, who announced his retirement in May, and instead will rely on presumed rookie starter Tyler Shough, who they drafted in the second round. Not your typical rookie, Shough will be 26 years old when the season starts, and there isn’t a proven track record of older rookie QBs succeeding in the pros.
Jason, who prefaced that he doesn’t believe he’s the best QB scout, thinks Shough could buck the trend and be a solid QB in the league. Shough was injured every year in college up until his final year, so he didn’t get to progress as quickly as other college QBs. Jason argues that if Shough is just decent, it could lead to better fantasy production all-around for Saints’ players.
The offensive line is a problem for New Orleans, as Andy pointed out, which will make things tough for Shough. It will also hamper Alvin Kamara‘s ceiling, but the veteran RB still has a safe floor thanks to his skills in the passing game. He should be able to pick up chunk fantasy points with the number of times he gets the ball through the air.
The pass-catchers are difficult to trust, with Olave being the most likely to end up on top as the fantasy points leader at the WR position. Shaheed could just as easily end up as the WR1, as Andy pointed out, and it’s hard to really love any of the wideouts due to the makeup of the team.
Mike likes TE Juwan Johnson as a late-round flier at the position as the main receiver out of the slot. New head coach Kellen Moore has a history of success with players working out of the slot. Granted, Johnson doesn’t fit the caliber of players like DeVonta Smith and Keenan Allen, but Johnson has a chance to be productive, and he could be scooped up off the waiver wire after fantasy drafts.
Who Wins the NFC South?
The Ballers agree – Tampa Bay will win the division for a third straight year, and New Orleans will finish last. The only difference in predictions is that Andy and Jason both believe Atlanta will finish in second, while Mike thinks Carolina will finish second.
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