In this series of articles, I’ll be looking at the movers and shakers in every NFL backfield – division by division – and what that may mean for your best-ball, dynasty, and re-draft rosters as we edge ever closer to the opening of team training camps in mid-July.
Staying in the AFC, we’re heading south to take a look at what is arguably the weakest division in the entire National Football League…the NFC South. Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon do a lot of heavy lifting for the stats of these backfields, but this series is about looking at what has gone before us and how this can help us predict the future. With that said…
Let’s dive right in!
Houston Texans (10-7)
2024 RB Statistics
| Player | ATT | YDS | Y/A | Rush Share (%) | TD | TGT | REC | YDS | TD |
| Joe Mixon | 245 | 1016 | 4.15 | 66.94% | 11 | 52 | 36 | 309 | 1 |
| Dameon Pierce | 40 | 293 | 7.33 | 10.93% | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 40 | 147 | 3.68 | 10.93% | 1 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 30 | 112 | 3.73 | 8.20% | 0 | 28 | 19 | 198 | 1 |
| J.J. Taylor | 10 | 44 | 4.40 | 2.73% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| British Brooks | 1 | 2 | 2.00 | 0.27% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 366 | 1614 | 14 | 91 | 61 | 525 | 3 |
PLAYERS IN: Woody Marks (4th Round – pick 116), Nick Chubb (FA – on Browns in 2024)
PLAYERS OUT: British Brooks (FA)
It was a funny old season for the Houston Texans. In a year that was supposed to see sophomore QB C.J. Stroud build on his trailblazing rookie campaign, it felt like this entire offense took a step backwards…but was that really the case? The C.J. era in Texas kicked off with the 2nd overall pick (remember Bryce Young went ahead of him?) putting up 4,108 passing yards (3rd all time) and 23 TDs (6th all time) in just 15 games – truly monumental number – and benchmarks that would take herculean efforts to surpass in year number two. Unfortunately for the former Buckeye and his fantasy managers, Stroud was more Philoctetes than Hercules, finishing the season with almost 400 fewer yards through the air and three fewer scores. Despite Stroud’s numbers being down across the board and their three main WRs only being on the field together on five occasions, the Texans somehow still managed to end the season with the same 10-7 record they produced in 2023, winning the division, and again crashing out in the Divisional Rounds…but how?
Sure, it would be easy to say Houston topped the AFC South yet again because their divisional rivals are all terrible (easy, and also accurate). Still, the real answer for their relative success was the addition of Mr. Joseph Tyler Mixon to the backfield during the off-season, and the significant upgrade he provided over messrs Singletary and Pierce. Mixon’s reputation and fantasy pedigree precede him; during his seven-year stint in Cincinnati, the soon-to-be 29-year-old finished as an RB1 on no fewer than four occasions, with one more year as the overall RB13… he’s a bona-fide stud. To absolutely nobody’s surprise, the former Bengal picked up in the Lone Star State where he left off in Ohio, debuting with 178 total yards and a score in Week 1, announcing his arrival as a Texan with an RB2 finish on the week.
Aside from a 3-week stint on the sidelines with an ankle injury, the former 2nd-round pick kept that Week 1 energy rolling all the way through until the team’s Week 14 bye, finishing as an RB1 for fantasy in seven of the eight games he was on the field…studly. Mixon’s overall finish on the year at RB11 discredits his efforts on the field; his 17.2 FPPG ranked 6th at the position on the year, and in the six-game span from Week 6 through 11, he was far-and-away the overall RB1 for fantasy with a 17-game pace of 2,192 total yards and 28 TDs.
Mixon was one of the very few backs in the league to see over a 70% share of the team’s total rush attempts and RB targets when playing. This further cemented his role as an every-down back – perhaps unsurprising, however, given his main challengers for touches were Cam Akers and the ghost of Dameon Pierce (who, to his credit, did run at 7.33 Y/A with his 40 touches). Entering the last year of his rookie deal, Pierce will return in 2025, but will face some stiff competition to secure the backup role to Mixon in the form of 4th-round rookie pick Jo’Quavious Woody Marks and recently acquired Nick Chubb from Cleveland. Chubb, of course, needs no introduction; we all know just what he is capable of when healthy, and therein lies the real question of what his actual role may be in this offense.
The former Brown signed a one-year $2.5m contract with the team in June, hardly starter-level money – and coming off a season-ending broken foot last year (as well as his 2023 ACL tear), it seems as if Nickolas may be set to play a backup/change of pace role to Mixon as he takes the field for the first time in his career not wearing a Browns uniform. Woody Marks, a 24-year-old rookie out of USC, was selected with the 116th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft and, with a three-down skill set, is likely being lined up as the natural replacement to Dameon Pierce as he heads for the exit door following this year’s campaign. Marks will undoubtedly see a smattering of touches to close games out, but should be no real threat to Mixon’s workload. With the addition of Chubb and Marks, veterans Dare Ogunbowale and J.J. Taylor will likely be roster casualties come September.
Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
2024 RB Statistics
| Player | ATT | YDS | Y/A | Rush Share (%) | TD | TGT | REC | YDS | TD |
| Jonathan Taylor | 303 | 1431 | 4.72 | 77.49% | 11 | 31 | 18 | 136 | 1 |
| Trey Sermon | 56 | 159 | 2.84 | 14.32% | 2 | 19 | 16 | 99 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 32 | 153 | 4.78 | 8.18% | 1 | 15 | 11 | 61 | 1 |
| TOTAL | 391 | 1743 | 14 | 65 | 45 | 296 | 2 |
PLAYERS IN: Khalil Herbert (FA – on Bengals in 2024), DJ Giddens (5th Round – pick 151)
PLAYERS OUT: Trey Sermon (FA to Steelers)
Chances are, if you were a Jonathan Taylor fantasy manager who made the playoffs last season, you are probably reading this with tears of joy streaming down your face as you reminisce about how JTT single-handedly won you a #FootclanTitle. Taylor followed up his 218 rushing yards and three scores in Week 16 with another 125 yards on the ground and two more tuddies in the fantasy championship…both were unsurprisingly RB1 finishes on the week. Despite missing out on the playoffs and posting a losing 8-9 season, Indianapolis boasted the 8th-best overall run game in the National Football League, thanks in no small part to Jonathan Taylor Thomas’ 1,431 rushing yards (4th at the position) and 11 TDs (T-9th).
Taylor was a one-man band in the Colts’ ground game, boasting an impressive 77.49% share of the team’s total carries, 3rd most in the league behind only Derrick Henry (81.86%) and Kyren Williams (79.60%). Whilst not quite as efficient as King Henry’s league-leading 5.9 Y/A, Taylor’s mark of 4.7 Y/A was still enough to finish inside the top-10 amongst all rushers who carried the ball a minimum of 100 times on the season, and saw the fifth-year back end up as the overall RB9 on the year for fantasy. Whilst last season was Taylor’s best on the ground since 2021, it was also his worst as a receiver in his entire career. His 18 receptions, 58% catch rate, and subsequent 136 receiving yards were all the lowest numbers Taylor has posted since entering the league back in 2020. Sure, a large portion of the blame for this can be shifted on to the relatively poor (read as: “historically awful”) QB play from Anthony Richardson, but despite JTT’s dazzling abilities as a rusher, we are at the stage in his career that we have to accept he is a complete non-factor in the passing game and will never possess the fantasy upside of Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson as a result.
Despite the potential for Taylor to PPR his way to the top of the RB rankings being capped, the sheer volume of carries this coaching staff are willing to give their workhorse back does give hope that he could once again finish as the overall RB1 in 2025 – especially when his main threat for touches has now departed for Pittsburgh. Yes, I am referring to Trey Sermon, and although it may not have felt like it, the former 3rd round draft pick and Mike Wright favorite was the clear backup to Taylor in 2024, stealing 14.32% of the team’s total carries at the position, amassing a whopping 159-yards in the process (2.7 Y/A).
The good news for Taylor truthers is that in the wake of Sermon’s departure, the Colts have replaced him with an equally unproductive back in the form of Khalil Herbert, following his release from Cincinnati. Herbert managed just 155 total yards all season with the Bengals last time out, so he should slot nicely into the fairly irrelevant role of Taylor’s handcuff for the year ahead. Herbert will be joined in the backfield by rookie D.J. Giddens, a 5th round selection out of Kansas State. Despite the former Wildcats’ impressive showing at the combine, it is unlikely that he or Herbert will provide anything but temporary relief for Taylor on the rare occasions where he gets too tired of beating down defensive backs on his way to another 1000-yard season. Tyler Goodson is still hanging on to a roster spot for dear life, as is former Miami Dolphin Salvon Ahmed; expect both of them to be relegated to the practice squad by the time the season starts.
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13)
2024 RB Statistics
| Player | ATT | YDS | Y/A | Rush Share (%) | TD | TGT | REC | YDS | TD |
| Tank Bigsby | 168 | 766 | 4.56 | 48.00% | 7 | 12 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | 150 | 558 | 3.72 | 42.86% | 2 | 52 | 39 | 254 | 0 |
| D’Ernest Johnson | 32 | 143 | 4.47 | 9.14% | 0 | 19 | 12 | 96 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 350 | 1467 | 9 | 83 | 58 | 404 | 0 |
PLAYERS IN: Bhayshul Tuten (4th Round – pick 104), LeQuint Allen Jr. (7th Round – pick 236), Ja’Quinden Jackson (UDFA)
PLAYERS OUT: D’Ernest Johnson (FA)
Remember when Jason and Mike pranked Andy on the 2024 My Guys episode by sneakily inserting Tank Bigsby as Mr. Holloway’s third and final pick? Well, twelve months on and what was intended as a hilarious joke turned out to be one of the ADP steals of the draft after the sophomore back outperformed his stablemate Travis Etienne in every major rushing metric on his way to an RB32 finish. Bigsby’s consistency chart in The Fantasy Footballers’ Ultimate Draft Kit resembles a faulty traffic light, with a varied assortment of green, yellow, and red indicators flashing throughout the entire season. His fantasy finishes from Weeks 5 through 9 perfectly encapsulated his year – RB1, RB51, RB5, RB30, RB56…what a rush. Whilst Tank’s numbers in his sophomore year were significantly better than his rookie campaign (2.6 Y/A up to 4.6 Y/A), a large part of his success can be attributed to the spectacular downfall of 2023’s overall RB3 – Travis Etienne Jr.
Heading into the 2024 season, Etienne was a consensus top-8 pick at the position, and in some leagues found himself sliding into the back of the first round. Whilst the former first-round draft pick wasn’t a complete bust (I’m looking at you, Christian McCaffrey), his lackluster performances from Week 4 onwards absolutely destroyed your lineup week in and week out. Etienne managers were left asking themselves the same question as the season drew on: “Am I really about to bench a guy I took with a top-20 pick?“. Hopefully, the answer was a resounding yes, and that it was answered early, with things only going from bad to worse for the third-year back. Etienne slowly but surely conceded more and more work to teammate Bigsby in what was fast becoming a lost season for the Jags, particularly once Trevor Lawrence was effectively lost to injury in Week 9. By the time Jacksonville had picked up its first win in Week 5, Bigsby was already the dominant force in this backfield, with it taking an injury to the second-year rusher for Etienne to see upwards of 30% of carries in a single contest. Once Tank returned after the Jags’ Week 12 bye, it was a 51%/49% split in Bigsby’s favor for the rest of the way, the two backs cannibalizing each other’s values to respective RB26 and RB28 finishes over the final six-week stretch of the season…woof.
Thankfully for fantasy managers, the Jags didn’t do anything to further muddy this very split backfield…oh wait, no, they only went and drafted 23-year old speedster Bhayshul Tuten in the 4th round – that’ll be the same Bhayshul Tuten who ran a lightning quick 4.32 seconds in the 40-yard dash, the 4th fastest time by a RB in Combine history (well, T4th with De’Von Achane). Tuten wasn’t drafted to make up the numbers, and with new HC Liam Cohen having previously handed over a backfield to a relatively unknown rookie (think 2024 Bucky Irving), we may see the 206 lb back carve out a significant role for himself early on in the season. The only slight against the flatulent-one is his rather diminutive size, at 5’9″ he’s more of a wee tootski rather than a Jason Moore style roundhouse fart – but borborygmus related jokes aside (shout out SpitBallers fans), Tuten could emerge as the leader of this backfield, particularly if Etienne’s efficiency continues to nosedive in the final year of his rookie deal. Seventh-round pick LeQuint Allen Jr. looks set to seal a roster spot alongside Tuten, Bigsby, and Etienne, but don’t expect him to make any significant impact. On draft day, I’ll be taking the cheapest of the Jags RBs and hoping to hit the jackpot. Right now, that’s Tuten in the 14th round, but with ADP changing on a daily basis, you can keep up-to-date on the Jacksonville trios draft position, and that of every player in the NFL over at your UDK Headquarters.
Tennessee Titans (3-14)
2024 RB Statistics
| Player | ATT | YDS | Y/A | Rush Share (%) | TD | TGT | REC | YDS | TD |
| Tony Pollard | 260 | 1079 | 4.15 | 70.84% | 5 | 57 | 41 | 238 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 84 | 312 | 3.71 | 22.89% | 4 | 35 | 30 | 224 | 1 |
| Julius Chestnut | 22 | 102 | 4.64 | 5.99% | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 2 | 2.00 | 0.27% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 367 | 1495 | 9 | 95 | 73 | 473 | 1 |
PLAYERS IN: Kalel Mullings (6th Round – pick 188), Tyrion Davis-Price (FA – on Eagles in 2024)
PLAYERS OUT: Joshua Kelley (FA)
*channels inner Paul Dano from The Batman* Nooooo! This was not how this was supposed to go! After finishing as the RB7 and RB15 as the “backup” to Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas, the prospect of Tony Pollard getting to play as a lead back in a new offense had fantasy managers salivating at the thought. Unfortunately, that new offense happened to be the Will Levis-led Tennessee Titans, and the mouth-watering turned more into that feeling you get when you’re about to be sick…you know the one when your mouth starts to fill up and you can’t stop what’s coming next, yeah, that.
Before we blow those proverbial chunks, let’s take a look at the positives, shall we? Pollard was one of only seven backs who received above 70% of their respective teams’ total rushing opportunities, so clearly the team trusts him. The former Cowboy received 260 carries on the year – 15 more than the aforementioned Joe Mixon – and like Mixon, averaged a relatively impressive 4.15 Y/A in his first year on a new offense. TP’s 57 targets across the season ranked T8th at the position (the same number as Rachaad White), and in half-PPR formats, all those check-downs from Bananarama were good enough to see Pollard end the year as the overall RB22…six spots ahead of his ADP.
So what went wrong? Firstly, let’s talk about Mr. Pollard’s apparent fear of the end zone, shall we? Despite receiving the 8th most carries across the year, the sixth-year back finished T-27th in rushing TDs with just five, which is the same number as rookie Tyrone Tracy, and less than Roschon Johnson, Zach Charbonnet, and Najee Harris (the same Najee Harris who had zero TDs through five weeks). If you have The Fantasy Footballers UDK, you’ll know that Pollard’s last two seasons rank as 59th and 60th out of 62 in terms of total TDs for backs with 300+ touches… that’s not good, Bob. TP’s aversion to the end-zone, coupled with his almost laughable inefficiency as a pass-catcher (his 5.8 Y/C was 48th for RBs with 20+ targets), made him hard to trust as a starter every week. But like Shaun Draughn before him, sometimes you need that fantasy salad to fill up your plate, and Pollard’s 11.3 FPPG did just that.
Tyjae Spears remains on the roster, and truthers of the third-year back will still hold on to some hope that this is the year he breaks out and takes a grasp of the backfield that was promised to him sitting behind King Henry for his rookie season. Spoiler alert, if he couldn’t get it done last year with only Pollard to surpass, it ain’t happening this year. With only 6th-round draft pick Kalel Mullings and Tyrion Davis-Price joining the roster, Pollard and Spears will continue to dominate touches in this backfield, likely in a similar split to last season. Don’t be surprised to see TP end the year with 70%+ of team carries yet again, but with another rookie QB under center, don’t get your hopes up for anything other than a mid-RB2 finish come December.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/b9KOy1v
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