Welcome to our AFC North breakdown as we kick off the 2025 divisional previews. We’re diving into all the offseason moves – from big-name signings and rookie additions to coaching changes – to predict where these teams are headed. We will break down last year’s offensive production, forecast what we expect this season, and share our win total predictions and division winner picks. Plus, stick around to find out which AFC North team Andy is picking as his favorite to win the Super Bowl this year!
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Let’s Get Divisional – AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Player Additions: WR DeAndre Hopkins, QB Cooper Rush
Player Subtractions: WR Nelson Agholor
Rookies: WR LaJohntay Wester (Round 6)
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 3 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
The Todd Monken era continues strong in Baltimore. Sure, they fell short of the Lombardi, but this team took massive strides. After a 0-2 start, they ripped off wins to finish 12-5 and clinch the division crown. The biggest boost? King Henry himself.
Derrick Henry was an absolute game-changer. Averaging 5.91 yards per carry at age 31 is absurd. He landed in a perfect situation: a better offense with a strong O-line, a mobile QB who kept defenses guessing, and a stout defense that kept them ahead in games, meaning plenty of garbage time carries to pad his stats. It all added up to one of the best seasons of his career, with 1,921 rushing yards and 18 TDs, finishing as the RB2 in fantasy. Baltimore led the league in rushing yards per game. Justice Hill also carved out a solid role as one of the better handcuffs in fantasy. In this run-heavy offense, he averaged a 42% snap share, saw 51 targets, and delivered four top-24 fantasy finishes.
“All 32 teams should have been in on Derrick Henry.” pic.twitter.com/x5jXo4Lhnv
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) January 15, 2025
It was another MVP-caliber campaign for Lamar Jackson, who finished as the QB1 in fantasy last season, averaging 25.6 points per game. He lit up defenses with a league-best 8.6% TD rate—a massive improvement over his previous three seasons (4.2%, 5.2%, 5.3%). It was also his most consistent fantasy season to date, with 16 top-12 finishes. Jackson threw for 4,172 yards and rushed for another 915. Zay Flowers emerged as his clear number-one target, but fantasy production didn’t match the role. Despite playing all 17 games as Lamar’s first read on a 4,000-yard passing team, Flowers barely eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards and scored just four TDs. That’s the lowest ever for a WR1 on a team with 40 passing TDs. From Weeks 10-18, he had only one top-24 finish.
Rashod Bateman? He’s a best-ball dart throw at best. Four years in, he’s stuck around a 15% target share and only delivers the occasional splash play that’s impossible to predict. He saw five or fewer targets in 14 games last year, so you are unlikely to feel confident putting him in your lineup on a weekly basis. And the addition of DeAndre Hopkins isn’t even worth mentioning—sorry, D-Hop.
If you drafted Mark Andrews last year, you were probably panicking by Week 4. Through three games, he had just six catches for 65 yards and no TDs. In the Week 3 win over the Cowboys, he saw only one target and didn’t catch a single pass. Despite the brutal start, Andrews turned it around in a big way, finishing as the TE7 thanks to his league-leading 11 TDs. In Week 1, Isaiah Likely went nuclear with 111 yards and a TD, finishing as the TE1 that week. The rest of his season was boom-or-bust. Looking forward, the question is whether Likely will see more opportunities if Andrews continues to regress. In nine career games without Andrews, Likely has averaged 11 half-PPR points per game.
Heading into year three of the Todd Monken era, expectations are sky-high. The Ravens have the 21st-ranked strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp, so nothing too intimidating there. Even better, they’re returning 95% of their targets and all of their rush attempts from last season.
Oh, and Andy thinks they’re winning the Super Bowl.
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 11.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Player Additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Mason Rudolph, WR DK Metcalf, RB Kenneth Gainwell, TE Jonnu Smith
Player Subtractions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, RB Najee Harris, WR George Pickens, WR Van Jefferson, WR Mike Williams
Rookies: RB Kaleb Johnson (Round 3), QB Will Howard (Round 6)
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 20 | 29 | 26 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
The Steelers somehow finished 2nd in the division last year, even after losing their final four games. Granted, those losses came against some tough teams– the Bengals twice, the Chiefs, and the Eagles – with both Kansas City and Philly ending up in the Super Bowl.
But in classic Steelers fashion, they bowed out with a first-round Wild Card loss to Baltimore. Mike Tomlin is heading into his 19th season, still rocking that never-had-a-losing-record streak. The problem? His last playoff win was back in 2016. Fans are getting restless. The team keeps pushing their chips in, but lately, it feels more like desperate moves than an actual plan. This year, they’re rolling out an offense that looks completely different. They swapped out Russell Wilson and Justin Fields for Aaron Rodgers and Mason Rudolph, traded George Pickens for DK Metcalf, and sent Najee Harris packing to make room for rookie RB Kaleb Johnson. Oh, and because Arthur Smith can’t quit his favorite guy, they brought Jonnu Smith along for their third reunion tour.
The big question now is: how will Aaron Rodgers fit into this offense? Arthur Smith loves to run the ball – the Steelers ranked fourth in rush attempts last year. But let’s be honest, Rodgers didn’t sign a one-year, last-chance deal in Pittsburgh just to hand it off all day. He was second in pass attempts last season, and even if his fit in this run-heavy scheme is a bit awkward, he’s still a huge upgrade over Russell Wilson. The Steelers desperately need it after finishing 20th in points per game and 28th in pass rate last year.
Fantasy-wise, Rodgers isn’t bringing anything with his legs at this point, so his ceiling is limited. You’re only drafting him in SuperFlex leagues, but you can feel good about him as a reliable passer for the receiving options of this team.
Speaking of, the Steekers bring in DK Metcalf, as the number one target for Aaron Rodgers after signing a massive four-year, $132 million contract with the team. The Ballers are split on their evaluation of DK after his move:
Andy = Love: “I love, love, love, DK Metcalf.”
Jason = Like: “I like DK Metcalf in the 5th round as WR24, who is the clear #1 target here for Aaron Rodgers.”
Mike = Hate: “He has disappointed his ADP for like four straight years, and a move to Pittsburgh with Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers doesn’t give me super confidence. Rodgers is a general who demands that you be exactly where you’re supposed to be exactly when you’re supposed to be there. DK isn’t that. DK is a bully.”
Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson, and Robert Woods round out the receiver room. Austin showed he could make big plays, but he wasn’t exactly earning a ton of targets. Roman Wilson barely saw the field, thanks to his nagging hamstring issues. And Bobby Trees… well, he put up 203 receiving yards last year. I just wanted an excuse to say Bobby Trees. He’s completely irrelevant.
We still haven’t addressed the RB room. Najee Harris is gone, and they brought in rookie Kaleb Johnson to add some juice to this backfield. He’s going in the late 8th Round on Sleeper right now, but the Ballers expect that ADP to climb as the season gets closer. Jaylen Warren has never handled more than 17 touches in a game, so even if he starts the year as the lead, have some patience. Johnson has a 52% Dominator Rating, which tops this year’s RB class (better than Jeanty). Let him get his NFL footing. This is exactly why Jason will end up with Kaleb on every single one of his fantasy teams (and why you should, too).
At TE, just when Pat Freiermuth’s stock was rising, the Steelers traded for Jonnu Smith. Arthur Smith loves his 12 personnel, and Jonnu just put up 884 yards and 8 TDs with Miami last season (TE4 finish). Brutal for Muth’s fantasy value; I guess the Muth is no longer Luth.
In 2024 under Arthur Smith, the Steelers led the league in 13 personnel (1 RB, 3TEs) usage at 15.1%.
For context, league average last year was just over 3%. Find someone who loves you the way Arthur loves his TEs. pic.twitter.com/5svtX7xHHM
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) June 30, 2025
Vegas says the Steelers will have yet another winning season, but there are no promises of playoff wins for Yinz.
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5
Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
Player Additions: RB Samaje Perine
Player Subtractions: NONE
Rookies: RB Tahj Brooks (Round 6)
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 30 | 27 |
The Bengals are the only team in the NFL rolling into this season with everyone back from last year – no vacated targets, receptions, or receiving yards. That type of continuity is rare in today’s NFL, and it’s precisely what Cincinnati needs after how their 2024 season unfolded. Last year was defined by heartbreak. They started 1-4, and every single one of those losses was by just one score. Talk about brutal. Even worse, seven of their eight total losses came against playoff teams. This was a team that was right there in almost every matchup but just couldn’t close the deal early in the year.
The issue? Their defense. They ranked 26th in points allowed per game, constantly forcing Burrow and the offense into shootouts to keep pace. The silver lining for fantasy managers? Joe Burrow was throwing it all over the yard, and the Bengals led the entire NFL in passing yards per game. By the end of the season, they finally found their rhythm, rattling off five straight wins and nearly sneaking into the playoffs.
Classic Joe Cool. It’s the same story we’ve seen before. Joe Burrow starts the season slow, then goes absolutely nuclear down the stretch. From Week 9 on, he was the QB1 in fantasy, shredding defenses for 4,918 yards and 45 TDs, finishing as the QB2 overall. Sure, he’s never going to give you that Konami code rushing upside like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but when you’re leading the league in pass attempts with weapons like these, it really doesn’t matter.
Speaking of weapons, Ja’Marr Chase reminded everyone exactly who he is last season. He didn’t just finish as the WR1; he lapped the field. Chase averaged 20 fantasy points per game, while WR2 Justin Jefferson averaged just 15.6 – that’s the largest gap between WR1 and WR2 since 2018. Chase is as elite and safe as it gets in fantasy. Even if he doesn’t finish WR1 again, he’s locked in as a top 4 guy. There’s no floor fall-out here. He finished the season as a triple crown winner, having led the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs.
Ja’Marr Chase was that dude last season. He didn’t just finish as the WR1; he lapped the field. Chase averaged 20 fantasy points per game, while Justin Jefferson came in at WR2 with just 15.6. That’s the biggest gap between WR1 and WR2 we’ve seen since 2018. He’s the safest elite pick you can make in fantasy drafts.
Then there’s Tee Higgins. He was right behind Chase in almost every metric last season… when he was actually on the field. The injuries keep piling up, though. He played in 12 games last year and was probably limping through three more. Seeing him go at the 3.03 in drafts is scary, but the talent is undeniable, and if he can somehow stay healthy for a full season, he’ll be a massive value. There’s even some optimism heading into year two for Jermaine Burton. Offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher said Burton is “here putting the time in.” We will see if that turns into meaningful snaps behind Chase and Higgins. TE Mike Gesicki is only in play as a streamer when someone else is out.
The backfield is led by Chase Brown, who, like Higgins, is also going in the 3rd round. And for good reason. From Week 9 on, Brown was the RB5 in total fantasy points, averaging a monstrous 24.4 opportunities per game – only Saquon Barkley saw more. What really elevated Brown was his passing game involvement. When Zack Moss went down in Week 8, Brown took over and was on pace for 93 targets, catching 86% of them at 8 yards per reception. That made him Burrow’s go-to checkdown weapon, massively boosting his PPR value. The Bengals didn’t add much competition either, bringing back Moss, adding Samaje Perine, and drafting rookie Tahj Brooks in the sixth round. This is Brown’s backfield to lead. He’s one of Mike’s favorite fantasy picks this year.
From Weeks 9-17 last year, Chase Brown averaged:
*85% snaps
*24.4 opportunities/game
*18.2 PPGCompetition for touches:
*Zack Moss of a serious neck injury
*30 year old Samaje Perine
*6th rounder Tahj BrooksBiggest winner of draft weekend?
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) April 26, 2025
The Bengals roll into 2025 with something every team wants: stability. Joe Burrow is back with his full arsenal locked and loaded. This offense has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the AFC and the defense to ensure they will have to. As long as they avoid another slow start, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be battling for the division title – and maybe even more than that.
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Player Additions:QB Joe Flacco, QB Kenny Pickett, WR Diontae Johnson
Player Subtractions: QB Jameis Winston, RB Nick Chubb, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Elijah Moore
Rookies:RB Quinshon Judkins (Round 2), TE Harold Fannin Jr. (Round 3), QB Dillon Gabriel (Round 3), RB Dylan Sampson (Round 4), QB Shedeur Sanders (Round 4)
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 32 | 1 | 20 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
How bad are the Browns looking right now? Well, Vegas only has them favored in one game all season. Yikes. Safe to say no one’s expecting newly returned Joe Flacco to save the day. Last year, with Jameis Winston running the show, they somehow led the entire NFL in pass attempts — and still finished last in points per game. That’s not exactly a combo you see every day. Kevin Stefanski is giving it another shot with new OC Tommy Rees, and honestly, there’s nowhere to go but up. But with Warren Sharp ranking their 2025 schedule as the second toughest in the league, it’s going to be a steep climb. They only managed three wins last year, and Vegas has set their win total at 5.5 for this season. Cleveland has a great defense; they should be able to stay in games if they can do anything on offense.
The biggest question here? Who is actually playing QB? Deshaun Watson is still working his way back from that torn Achilles and might not even be ready until October. And honestly, even if he is healthy, it’s not like we’ve seen anything recently to suggest the team would want him to start anyway. So what did the Browns do to fix their QB situation? Well… they traded for Kenny Pickett, re-signed 40-year-old Joe Flacco, and drafted not one but two rookies – Dillon Gabriel in the third round and Shedeur Sanders after he slipped to the fourth. Yeah… totally clears things up.
Even if Flacco starts Week 1, there’s no shot he makes it through all 17 games. Drafting Jerry Jeudy, assuming that, is a bad process. Sure, Jeudy and Njoku might be okay early, but if Pickett or a rookie takes over, it’s game over for their fantasy value.
Andy’s advice: avoid this offense in drafts… except for rookie RB Quinshon Judkins. Jason calls him “the Nick Chubb replacement.” Even on a bad team, the volume could make him an RB2. He’s a TD monster with 45 rushing TDs in three college seasons. Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford are around, but Judkins’ draft capital locks him in as the No. 1.
Quinshon Judkins landing with the Browns is such a perfect fit
pic.twitter.com/bwEhSG1Viu
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) May 8, 2025
Will the Browns’ receivers be undervalued in drafts just because, well, they’re Browns? Take Jerry Jeudy, for example. He’s going at 6.09 as the WR33. But get this – 92% of his fantasy points last year came when the Browns were trailing (that’s the highest rate among all WRs). Before Jameis took over, Jeudy was putting up just 46 receiving yards per game and 7.4 fantasy points. But after Jameis’ first start in Week 8, Jeudy exploded, and from Weeks 11-18, he averaged 101 receiving yards and 17.3 fantasy points per game.
Outside of that half-season, Jeudy has never been a consistent fantasy asset. Other than that? 8.2 ppg one year, 6.6 ppg another. His best year? Just 11 points per game. It’s been rough.
Cedric Tillman is a sleeper for some, but Andy isn’t in:
“I’m not in the Cedric Tillman as sleeper category because Judkins, Jeudy, and Njoku – I like them all more on a team I don’t like. And so at that point, I’m getting further down the list of potential week-to-week success. He had a good three-game stretch. And I don’t think he’s a bad player. I don’t know what he’s going to represent for my team over the year, and I don’t think the ceiling’s very high because of where he falls in the pecking order.”
Diontae Johnson joins after bouncing around like an NFL hot potato (Panthers, Ravens, Texans, Ravens, now Browns). Remember when he said he didn’t play in Baltimore because it was “too cold”? Good luck in Cleveland, buddy.
David Njoku could be one of the better late-round TE options. Jason prefers him over Engram or Andrews at that price.
They start the year against Cincinnati, Baltimore, Green Bay, and Detroit. Oh no. Yeah, okay, that adds to the “don’t mess with them” warning Andy alluded to earlier.
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 5.5
Who Wins the AFC North?
Andy, Mike, and Jason predict the Baltimore Ravens will win the division.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/7RUyqpE
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