AFC North Breakdown + Partying Thoughts

Fantasy Football show for July 3, 2025. Let’s get divisional! AFC North fantasy football preview on today’s podcast! Get a full breakdown for the Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, and Browns for 2025 fantasy football drafts. Plus, keeper strategy talk, and how to decide between best player or best value. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.

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Summary:

Fantasy Football Excitement and Keeper Decisions 02:50

“We are nine weeks from today until the kickoff of the NFL season.”

• The hosts express their excitement as the NFL season approaches, with only nine weeks remaining until the kickoff. This anticipation is reflected in their discussions about keeping track of important dates and games, emphasizing the relevance of the upcoming football season in their lives.
• A discussion arises around strategies for keeper leagues, where deciding whether to keep the best player or the best value is pivotal. One example discussed is choosing between A-chan, a player with potential value at a late round, and Rashi Rice, who might represent better value despite doubts about his performance.

“In this situation, what would you do?”

• The hosts acknowledge that keeper decisions often involve balancing value against personal preferences for certain players. They highlight the importance of seeking impact players while still considering the value gained from keeping players in specific rounds.
• They emphasize that the opportunity cost of not keeping a specific player at a certain pick can be significant, as it hinges on what other strong options would be available.

“Positional value matters as well.”

• The conversation stresses that decision-making in keeper leagues isn’t just a matter of statistical comparisons but also involves understanding the context and dynamics of the league. Factors like how many keepers are allowed and the tendencies of other managers can drastically influence the value of certain players.

Baltimore Ravens Offense Insights 10:27

“Last year, they were the third-ranked offense in points per game and number one in yards per game.”

• The Baltimore Ravens showcased an impressive offensive performance last season, ranking third in points per game and first in total yards per game. This suggests they have a high-powered offense that can score efficiently.
• Key players, such as Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, played pivotal roles in their success, with Jackson being highlighted as a “league winner.”
• Initial optimism surrounds the team’s outlook for this season, as they are considered strong Super Bowl contenders due to their offensive capabilities and overall roster continuity.

The Importance of Stability in Roster 11:46

“Usually we discuss what has changed from last year, but for the Baltimore Ravens, there’s so little change.”

• Unlike many teams, the Ravens have maintained a stable roster, with most key players returning, which could lead to consistent performance.
• The retention of players and coaching staff, such as Todd Monken entering year three, can contribute to their offensive effectiveness, minimizing disruptions commonly caused by turnover.
• Despite minor acquisitions like DeAndre Hopkins, the core of the team’s offense remains intact, allowing them to build upon last year’s achievements.

Lamar Jackson‘s Potential Variance 13:15

“I do not expect Lamar Jackson to throw for 4,040 yards again, but he doesn’t need to be that prolific to be the number one quarterback.”

• Lamar Jackson‘s performance last season, with over 4,000 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, sets a high benchmark; however, there is speculation about possible regression in his statistics this year.
• It is suggested that even a decrease in yardage, around 3,835, could still allow him to retain top quarterback status in fantasy football, highlighting his overall contribution beyond mere yardage.
• Concerns arise regarding the distribution of targets, particularly who will emerge as the second receiver on the team alongside Jackson’s primary targets.

Target Distribution Among Skill Players 13:33

“The question to consider is who’s going to be second on this team in targets?”

• The team is expected to see a variety of target distributions, with rookie Zay Flowers likely to lead in targets, though competition exists among tight ends like Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely.
• While Andrews has historically been a strong red-zone threat, recent efficiency metrics suggest he may have peaked, raising questions about his future performance and overall target share.
• Draft strategies regarding these players need careful consideration, as both tight ends present challenges, leading to potential inconsistencies in fantasy points.

Derrick Henry‘s Continued Dominance 18:35

“Derrick Henry is going to score a million touchdowns.”

• Derrick Henry remains a formidable asset despite skepticism about his usage in the passing game, which generally inhibits other players from achieving their ceiling.
• His performances are bolstered by a successful ground game strategy, often finding himself in favorable situations where the team leads during games, allowing him to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
• The discussion includes his longevity and value in fantasy drafts, where he may not be viewed as a top selection, but still possesses the ability to deliver substantial output.

Discussion on Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers 20:38

“Yeah, he didn’t play in the playoffs, it looks like.”

• The conversation begins with a mention of a player who got injured in the final week of the season, impacting his playoff availability.
• There is playful banter as the host checks if a colleague named Kyle is present, humorously implying that he is expected to have information regarding the player.
• The group transitions to discussing the Baltimore Ravens, with a focus on the upcoming Super Bowl party as a hopeful sentiment for the team.

“But they ended in a really depressing way for Steelers fans.”

• The discussion shifts to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who finished the previous season with a disappointing record despite being the second-ranked team in their division at 10-7.
• They managed to exceed their projected win total of 8.5 by winning six close games but ended the season poorly, losing their last four games and their wild card matchup.
• The commentary highlights that this marks nearly a decade since the Steelers last won a playoff game, raising concerns among fans regarding the team’s performance.

“I do like the move for Ramsey, personally.”

• As the dialogue unfolds, there is analysis of the Steelers’ offseason changes, including significant player acquisitions such as Ramsey and discussions around the quarterback position, specifically comparing Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.
• The narrative reflects a sense of urgency for the Steelers, pointing out that fans are unlikely to accept another disappointing season following their staggered performance the previous year.
• The conversation also hints at the need for improvement in their offensive strategy amidst low rankings in points and yards per game.

“But it also feels a little bit like the Suns traded for Shaq.”

• The analogy made between the Steelers’ offseason changes and the Suns’ acquisition of high-profile players indicates skepticism about whether these moves will yield success.
• The discussion suggests that while integrating new players is vital, it is crucial for the Steelers to find the right chemistry and avoid past mistakes, especially given their history of struggles in the playoffs.

Steelers Quarterbacks and Draft Predictions 30:02

“I think the easiest thing to spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers is Caleb Johnson will be drafted before Jalen Warren.”

• The discussion opens with an assessment of the quarterback situation for the Pittsburgh Steelers, hinting at a division in opinions. Though there is speculation over how fans might perceive the commentary, it’s noted that Caleb Johnson is expected to be picked earlier than Jalen Warren in the draft.
• Warren might be utilized more actively in the initial weeks, but this has the potential to lead to frustration among fans who drafted Johnson, citing the adage, “Let the rookie cook,” which emphasizes patience with new players.
• Concerns arise about veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers potentially disrupting the team dynamics by frequently changing plays and focusing more on passing rather than a balanced attack.

Challenges and Prospects for the Steelers’ Offense 30:40

“Mike Tomlin… with this roster and a different quarterback… will just win games.”

• The conversation transitions to the Steelers’ coaching and roster. The host expresses admiration for Mike Tomlin but expresses doubts about the team’s prospects under Rodgers’ leadership due to the quarterback’s playing style.
• If the Steelers have a more traditional quarterback who won’t overrule play calls, their chances of winning would greatly increase. The importance of an efficient defense with key players like T.J. Watt and Jalen Ramsey is reiterated.
• A strong running game featuring Caleb Johnson is highlighted as a necessary component for the team’s success, with potential added strength in the offensive line.

Bengals’ Offensive Outlook for the Season 31:32

“The best part of their offense is the fact that they’re going to have to score 33 points to win a game.”

• Attention shifts to the Cincinnati Bengals and their offensive strategy. The team’s defense is critiqued for being lackluster, establishing the need for the offense to score heavily to secure wins.
• Joe Burrow‘s potential to replicate last season’s performance is discussed, with a high likelihood of him achieving over 35 touchdown passes. The team’s offensive struggles in past seasons are highlighted, attributing setbacks to their inability to convert leads into wins.
• There is also mention of key players like T. Higgins and the rookie Chase Brown, forecasting their importance in the coming season.

T. Higgins and Jamar Chase: Fantasy Implications 35:00

“Even if Jamar Chase doesn’t finish number one, he’s still top four.”

• The conversation dives into the fantasy football landscape concerning key Bengals players, particularly Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. The possibility of Chase not finishing as the number one wide receiver is addressed, emphasizing that his consistent performance will keep him within the top ranks.
• T. Higgins’ potential for a stellar season hinges on his health status, as past injury concerns are acknowledged during the discussion. The metrics comparing Higgins and Chase reflect a competitive landscape.
• Despite Higgins’s injury history, there is agreement on his capabilities when on the field, indicating he could rival Chase’s performance if he remains healthy.

The Draft Dilemma for Running Backs 38:25

“Chase Brown… was the running back five in total fantasy points scored.”

• The dialogue wraps up with a discussion about the draft decisions facing fantasy football players. With both T. Higgins and Chase Brown being popular third-round picks, the competition for roster spots becomes critical.
• Chase Brown‘s rise in status is noted, as he emerged as a leading fantasy player during the second half of last season, suggesting he could be a valuable draft choice for this upcoming season.
• The absence of significant competition for the running back position further strengthens Brown’s case as a desirable pick.

Chase Brown‘s Impact on the Game 39:14

“Chase Brown will be very, very involved.”

• The discussion highlights how Chase Brown‘s role on the team has grown, particularly evident in the depth chart. His involvement was crucial for Joe Burrow, especially during the latter part of the season when the team relied heavily on his receiving skills to secure victories.
• After Zach Moss’s injury in week eight, Chase Brown effectively became the full-time starter for the remaining games and was projected to receive 93 targets in that timeframe.
• He demonstrated remarkable efficiency, catching 86% of those targets for an impressive eight yards per reception. This performance solidified his value in the check-down game, which is essential for any top fantasy football option.
• Notably, from week four to week seventeen, Chase Brown consistently scored above ten fantasy points in each game, showcasing his strong potential to be a key player moving forward.

T. Higgins’ Draft Position and Comparison with Other Players 40:36

“T. Higgins has never gone higher in his career.”

• T. Higgins is currently seeing the highest average draft position (ADP) of his career, prompting discussions about his value versus other receivers like Garrett Wilson.
• While some analysts favor Higgins for his upside, particularly given his performance at the end of the last season, there are concerns regarding the consistency of other players in similar ADP ranges.
• The conversation points out that there may not be many wide receiver options after Higgins who could offer a similar level of reward, indicating a strong feeling that he might be undervalued in the draft.

Concerns About the Cleveland Browns‘ Schedule and Quarterback Situation 43:10

“They have a difficult schedule ahead.”

• The Cleveland Browns‘ upcoming schedule is perceived to be challenging, with the rankings indicating one of the tougher paths this season.
• There is a focus on their quarterback situation, as it will significantly impact the team’s performance. Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett are the main options discussed, and each will alter the fantasy outlook for various players depending on who is under center.
• The analysis emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback role, suggesting a potential lack of stability that could affect player performances throughout the season.

Running Back Evaluation: Judkins vs. Johnson 48:36

“I think he is going to be excellent. He’s the Nick Chubb replacement, a very big, athletic, super athletic back.”

• The speaker expresses high expectations for Quinchon Judkins, likening him to Nick Chubb due to his size and athleticism.
• There is a comparison between Judkins and Caleb Johnson, with a preference for Judkins if both are evaluated similarly in fantasy drafts.
• The reasoning lies in Judkins being viewed as the clear starter from week one, suggesting he will receive significant playing time and volume right away.
• The argument favors Judkins for immediate production, while Johnson may have a higher upside later in the season.

Rookie Running Backs and Team Rankings 49:55

“When we talk about rookie running backs, we’ve bypassed him in those discussions so many times because it’s a presupposition.”

• The discussion shifts to the ranking of rookie running backs, particularly excluding Jente from the list as he is often viewed as more seasoned than rookies.
• Despite the enthusiasm for Judkins and Johnson, there is some hesitation towards other players like Cedric Tillman, indicating a preference for those who are seen as more reliable options.

Tight End Preferences: Najoku Over Ingram 50:32

“I do like Najoku for where he’s going. I think that he’s one of the later round targets.”

• David Najoku is highlighted as a favorable late-round target in fantasy drafts, especially when compared to other tight ends like Evan Ingram.
• The discussion emphasizes Najoku’s potential to deliver value without a hefty draft cost, indicating he ranks higher on the preference scale compared to his contemporaries.
• The speakers convey a cautionary approach on selecting players from weaker offensive teams but still express confidence in Najoku’s ability to contribute meaningfully.

Evaluating Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman‘s Fantasy Potential 51:46

“We’ve seen so little of Tillman to know if he’s truly a fantasy starter.”

• The analysis of Jerry Judy and Cedric Tillman reveals uncertainty regarding Tillman’s capacity to be a reliable fantasy starter based on his limited experience.
• Although Judy has had previous success, the speakers question the impact of his uneven performance and the volatility of his situation in the past years.
• The discussion acknowledges Judy’s past production but shows concern about his consistency and potential in the upcoming season.

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