Welcome back to the 2025 edition of the Risk Bakery. If you missed the first batch, we already covered WRs whose scary labels made them fall far enough in ADP that the risk is essentially baked in. This time, we’re looking at the RBs.
Every year, fantasy managers avoid certain RBs because of age, injury history, backfield competition, or coaching changes. But the market adjusts, sometimes even overcorrects, and that perceived danger ends up pushing their ADP low enough to represent real value.
Let’s look at some of those backs who may feel risky, but whose current price already reflects that uncertainty. And of course, don’t forget to check out the Fantasy Footballers UDK+, complete with player rankings and a Risk Meter to help you evaluate each player’s volatility before you hit draft day.
Christian McCaffrey – San Francisco 49ers
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| RB6 | 13 | RB72 |
You can’t talk about risk without mentioning Christian McCaffrey. Anyone who spent last year’s 1.01 on him knows what it’s like to start the season already swimming against the current. A preseason Achilles injury wiped out his season before it even began. It was painful. Now 28, CMC is officially past the dreaded RB age cliff, and there’s a widespread perception that he’s one of the riskiest picks in fantasy. However, he has undergone cell infusion treatment, the same kind that helped George Kittle recover from a similar injury without setbacks. And in the brief time we did see McCaffrey last season, he looked like himself: racking up 18.6 touches per game, 93.7 total yards, and playing almost all the team’s offensive snaps during those games.
CMC still has overall RB1 upside. But thanks to injury concerns and ageism, his ADP has dropped to the late first round. If he slips into the second… would you really pass up on him?
Aaron Jones – Minnesota Vikings
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| RB26 | 76 | RB16 |
Drafting a 30-year-old RB rarely sparks joy. And yes, Aaron Jones’ efficiency dipped last season. But he still finished as the RB16, mainly because he handled the most touches in his entire career in Minnesota’s run-friendly offense. So why is he falling all the way to RB26 in drafts? The Vikings added Jordan Mason, who looked solid with the 49ers last year, and there’s a chance this could turn into a nearly even RB committee. Last season, they tried that with Ty Chandler, but he couldn’t hold the job, and Aaron Jones ended up carrying a workhorse load, which might be exactly why they brought Mason in.
But even in a potential split backfield, Jones is being drafted at his floor. He already proved he can hold up under a full workload, and this scheme should continue to feed its lead back. The risk? Fully baked into the price, in my opinion.
James Conner – Arizona Cardinals
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| RB22 | 61 | RB11 |
Another seasoned veteran at age 30, James Conner has always carried an injury-prone reputation. That’s why he’s going off the board in the fifth round as the RB22. But in 2024, he missed just one game and accumulated 283 touches for 1,508 total yards and nine TDs.
Nothing’s changed in Arizona this season for him. Last season, the Cardinals started involving rookie RB Trey Benson a little bit more, but Conner’s role remained locked in. And he proved that if he stays healthy, the numbers should follow. In 2024, he was the RB2 in missed tackles forced per attempt and the RB6 in yards per route run. Not exactly signs of an old guy starting to slow down. The fear is understandable, but the production and the positive situation are hard to ignore. His ADP screams bargain, and he’s set to deliver value at that price.
Najee Harris – Los Angeles Chargers
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| RB34 | 103 | RB20 |
RBs in Jim Harbaugh’s system usually thrive in fantasy, just look at J.K. Dobbins, who revived his career last season largely thanks to the sheer volume he received. No disrespect to Dobbins, but if it had been all about talent, the team probably wouldn’t have let him walk so easily. This offseason, they signed Najee Harris to a one-year deal, and it looked like he was in line for a similar workload.
But then came the draft: the Chargers spent a first-round pick on Omarion Hampton, one of the most intriguing rookie RB prospects this year. All of a sudden, it started to look like a split backfield, and Najee might be holding the smaller slice of the pie. That said, Harbaugh’s system can support more than one fantasy-relevant RB. Najee’s career has not been particularly shiny, but he’s proven he can handle a heavy workload. There’s a real chance Hampton takes over, but at an ADP in the 100s, the risk is already priced in.
Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| RB17 | 51 | RB9 |
Another over-28 RB that many people are actively avoiding in drafts. Kamara missed the final three games of last season with a groin injury, but before that, he was the RB5 in fantasy points per game, mostly thanks to his elite receiving role.
So why the hesitation? For one, the Saints drafted rookie Devin Neal, and they also still have Kendre Miller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire hanging around. Most importantly, with Derek Carr retired, rookie QB Tyler Shough will be under center, which could add some instability and uncertainty to the whole offense.
But that uncertainty might actually benefit Kamara. Rookie QBs often lean on safety valves, and that should help Kamara maintain his passing-game volume. He might not be breaking tackles left and right, but he doesn’t need to – he just needs targets. His ceiling is still inside the top 12. At RB17, you’re getting that upside at a discount because of baked-in risk that may not be as real as it seems.
Joe Mixon – Houston Texans
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| RB18 | 49 | RB13 |
Let’s wrap things up with another back who some people feel like has been around forever. Joe Mixon is now 28, officially past the age cliff, and he comes with a lengthy injury history and a declining efficiency. On paper, he seems risky, but there’s really not much objective evidence to back that up anymore.
Last year, he finished as the RB13, and it was all about volume. Mixon had a 77.7% opportunity share and ranked RB6 in red zone touches. Sure, he was among the worst starting RBs in missed tackles and yards after contact, but who cares when you’re getting 245 carries and 52 targets? The Texans haven’t added any real competition to the backfield, meaning Mixon’s workload should remain intact. At RB18, you’re drafting him at his floor, with RB1 upside. Whatever risk you think is there, it’s already baked into his ADP.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/Jj8eiHp
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