Welcome to the final installment of the 2025 edition of the Risk Bakery — our annual series where we look at players perceived as “too risky” for fantasy football… and show how, more often than not, that risk is already baked into their ADP.
We’ve already covered WRs, RBs, and TEs, and now it’s time to look at the most important position in football: QBs. Whether it’s injury concerns, coaching changes, new supporting casts, or plain old bad vibes, QBs often carry more narrative baggage than any other position. But when that baggage leads to steep ADP discounts, the risk may not be as scary as it seems.
And of course, if you want to make smart, risk-adjusted decisions in your draft, don’t forget to check out the Fantasy Footballers UDK+, complete with full player rankings and a helpful Risk Meter for every player. Now, let’s fire up the oven one last time and see which QBs have their risk fully baked into the price.
C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| QB16 | 109 | QB18 |
C.J. Stroud’s case is very interesting. After a flashy rookie season, a sophomore regression was to be expected, but the drop from QB11 to QB18 was more severe than most anticipated. However, it wasn’t all his fault. The Texans’ offensive line was one of the worst in the league, allowing 52 sacks, and little has changed to improve it. They simply replaced Laremy Tunsil with Cam Robinson.
His weapons have also taken a hit: Tank Dell is unlikely to play this season due to a knee injury, and Stefon Diggs has moved on to New England. The team tried to reload in the draft, bringing in WR Jayden Higgins as the most notable new target. But will it be enough? A top-6 season might be out of reach, but Houston’s high passing volume gives Stroud a path back into the low-end QB1 range. At a QB16 price, the downside is limited — the risk is clearly baked in.
Brock Purdy – San Francisco 49ers
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| QB13 | 97 | QB14 |
The perceived risk around Brock Purdy has more to do with the people around him than with Purdy himself. Last season was a tough one for San Francisco, with injuries to key offensive players like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and multiple offensive linemen. Despite that, Purdy still managed a respectable QB14 finish, and we’ve already seen that he is capable of finishing as high as QB6.
What’s more, Purdy added a new layer to his game in 2024, rushing for 323 yards, something he hadn’t done in previous years. He’s being drafted outside the top 12, yet he has clear top-6 potential if the offense remains healthy and he continues running the ball. Purdy might be the single most underrated QB in fantasy this year.
Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| QB15 | 105 | QB12 |
What exactly is the risk with Justin Herbert? He’s finished as a top-12 QB in every season he’s played — except 2023, when he missed four games due to injury. So why is he falling to QB15 in 2025 drafts?
It’s the fear of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman’s run-first offense. That’s fair. But even in that scheme, Herbert still finished as the QB12 last year, and now he enters the season with Ladd McConkey in his second year and rookie WR Tre Harris as his newest weapon. There’s risk in a more conservative playbook, sure. But at this cost, you’re getting a QB who’s already proven he can overcome it. The upside remains, and the fear is already priced in.
Drake Maye – New England Patriots
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| QB18 | 114 | QB23 |
Drake Maye showed legitimate promise in his rookie season. Maybe not flashy in fantasy, but certainly solid considering the context: a rebuilding team with a temporary coaching staff.
From Week 6 on, he averaged over 15 fantasy points per game and ran for 421 yards. The Patriots made clear upgrades this offseason, strengthening the offensive line and adding new weapons, including WR Stefon Diggs and rookie Kyle Williams. There are also reports that Maye has been building a very solid chemistry with veteran TE Hunter Henry.
Head coach Mike Vrabel has been vocal in his support, and Maye’s mobility gives him a built-in floor most QBs in this range can’t offer. At QB18, you’re not taking on much risk; in fact, you might be getting a bargain.
Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| QB11 | 86 | QB16 |
Last year’s No. 1 pick, Caleb Williams, had a rocky start to his NFL career. His offensive line was shaky, playcalling didn’t help, and his performance under pressure was subpar. All of that combined to make him a risk-averse target in 2025.
But there’s plenty of room for optimism. New head coach Ben Johnson brings in a creative mind to the offensive scheme. In addition, the Bears improved their offensive line and drafted WR Luther Burden III and TE Colston Loveland, two exciting new weapons for Williams.
His QB11 ADP isn’t exactly a steal, but if he clicks in this revamped offense, he could be this year’s breakout. The doubts are valid, but they’re already baked in.
Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| QB19 | 119 | QB27 |
Trevor Lawrence has been hyped as a breakout candidate for what feels like forever. At this point, we might as well call him Sleeping Beauty. In 2025, the fantasy community has finally given up, drafting him as the QB19.
That might be a mistake. New head coach Liam Coen has stated that he plans to build the entire offense around Lawrence’s skill set, the same way he revitalized Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay. The Jaguars also made major upgrades at WR, adding Brian Thomas Jr. and making a bold trade to draft Travis Hunter, one of the most intriguing rookies in the league. Lawrence has never cracked the top 12, but this year could be different, and if he does, you’re getting him at what should be his floor.
Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| QB21 | 129 | QB22 |
If you ask almost any fan to name an injury-prone QB, odds are they will say Tua. His history with concussions and other injuries has turned him into a red-flag player in many draft rooms. Even all the offseason buzz about jiu-jitsu, balance training, and throwing mechanics just keeps the narrative alive.
But let’s not forget: Tua led the league in passing yards in 2023 with 4,624. Among pure pocket passers, he’s one of the most accurate in the league. He still has Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith, and RB De’Von Achane‘s sure hands to work with.
Miami’s offensive line needs to improve, but at QB21, you’re drafting him where he finished last year. The risk is already priced in, and if he stays healthy (a very big IF), Tua remains a high-ceiling streamer in the right matchups.
Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| QB22 | 133 | QB19 |
It’s easy to label a 37-year-old pocket passer as risky. But Matthew Stafford still has the arm, and he still has the weapons. In 2024, he threw for 3,762 yards and 20 TDs, even though Puka Nacua missed time with injury. Cooper Kupp is now gone, but Stafford gets a new elite option in Davante Adams, who has already been making headlines for his offseason work with the team.
At QB22, Stafford is being drafted at his floor. If he connects consistently with Adams and Nacua, there’s minimal risk and plenty of matchup-based streaming appeal.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/e3Z0mBp
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