Although it is uncommon, some young stars encounter so much adversity early in their careers that evaluating their true dynasty value becomes an overwhelming challenge. Chris Olave currently stands out as a compelling case. Despite being under 25 and flashing serious promise through his first three seasons, he has endured more turbulence than most players face in an entire career. That includes being saddled with underperforming QBs, stuck in a dysfunctional organization with no clear direction, and suffering multiple concussions that have raised real concerns about his long-term future.
As a result, many dynasty managers now view Olave as a high-risk asset, even with his immense potential. In this article, we will break down his current value and long-term fantasy outlook to determine whether he is worth the risk or if you are better off cutting ties while his name still carries weight.
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The Case to Buy/ Hold
1. Ascending Young Talent
In dynasty leagues, young, talented WRs are the foundation of long-term roster success, and Olave still fits that mold. Outside of last year’s injury-shortened season, he opened his career with back-to-back 100-target, 1,000-yard campaigns. He is clearly the WR1 in New Orleans and, when healthy, sees enough volume to produce at a high level. Players with this kind of profile rarely come at a discount, but recent concerns have created a rare buy-low window. If you are willing to overlook the red flags and bet on talent, the upside is substantial.
Olave was a first-round pick, and the Saints exercised his fifth-year option, publicly stating their desire to sign him to a long-term extension. That level of organizational commitment speaks volumes. If New Orleans is still all-in on their young star despite the risks, dynasty managers may want to reconsider jumping ship too early. He has also surfaced in several trade rumors this offseason. While the team has yet to act, a change of scenery could unlock a new chapter and potentially elevate his value moving forward.
2. Potential QB Improvement (Eventually)
The QB situation in New Orleans may feel like it has hit rock bottom, but it probably will not stay that way forever. The hiring of Kellen Moore as head coach is already a step in the right direction. Moore is an offensive-minded leader with a proven track record of success, and if he is part of the team’s long-term vision, his presence could bring much-needed stability and creativity to the offense.
If the Saints perform as poorly as expected this season, they will be in a position for a high draft pick. Next year’s QB class is loaded with intriguing talent, and a top rookie could land in New Orleans and reshape the offensive outlook. There is also a slim possibility that the team targets a veteran upgrade, someone like Kirk Cousins or even Joe Flacco, who could immediately boost Olave’s fantasy value.
Yes, a lot of this is speculative, and some of it leans into wishful thinking. But it would be shortsighted to ignore the potential for meaningful improvement. If the QB situation stabilizes, Olave is exactly the kind of talent who could explode with the right support.
The Case to Sell
1. Concerning Concussion History
When he is on the field, Olave has looked every bit like the rising star the Saints hoped for when they selected him 11th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. He opened his career with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and top-25 fantasy finishes, showing off elite route-running and big-play upside. But his 2024 campaign raised major red flags that cast doubt on his long-term outlook.
After an up-and-down start to the season, Olave suffered his fourth documented NFL concussion (fifth overall) in Week 9, effectively ending his year. While any head injury is serious, this one was especially alarming. He took a shot to the head on a crossing route, lost consciousness, and had to be carted off the field on a spine board in the first quarter. Just weeks earlier, he had sustained another concussion in Week 6, making it two in roughly a month. The Saints wisely shut him down for the rest of the season to avoid further complications. These repeated head injuries, combined with growing concerns about his durability, have triggered a sharp drop in his dynasty value and raised legitimate questions about his long-term outlook.
2. No Clear Answer at QB
Olave’s struggles have not just been health-related. His on-field connection with Derek Carr has been frustratingly inconsistent over the past two seasons, often limiting his fantasy output. Despite showing flashes of brilliance, he has never topped 18.7 fantasy points in a game and is not a major TD threat, a troubling ceiling for a player with such inconsistent production. Carr’s inaccuracy not only hurt Olave’s production but also repeatedly put him in harm’s way, leading to increased exposure to contact and injury risk.
The good news? Carr decided to retire this offseason. The bad news? The Saints’ QB situation may somehow be worse. They used a second-round pick on Tyler Shough, a developmental prospect with tools but a long injury history and major question marks as a pro passer. If Shough fails to win the job, the alternatives are Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, neither of whom inspires much confidence. As a result, it is hard to envision Olave staging a bounce-back season that meaningfully boosts his dynasty value anytime soon.
The Verdict/ Trade Ideas
Given the uncertainty at QB and Olave’s concerning concussion history, it is reasonable to consider moving on, especially if you can still get decent value. Entering 2024, Olave was a consensus top-15 dynasty WR. Now, his trade market has cooled significantly. If you can fetch a future first-round rookie pick, that is a move worth considering. Anything less likely is not worth the risk, as the odds of landing a player with Olave’s talent (even with the red flags) in the second round or later are slim.
If you are looking to move Olave, consider targeting rebuilding teams that are hungry for young talent. These managers are often more willing to overlook the red flags in exchange for a high-upside receiver with long-term potential. In return, aim for proven veterans who can give your contending roster the boost it needs to make a serious title run. It is a smart, strategic pivot for teams in win-now mode. I have used this approach to trade Olave in two of my leagues, and it has been the most effective way to find common ground. Your trade partner is likely eager to unload aging assets, while you secure immediate contributors to chase a championship.
Prefer to avoid aging veterans? Consider targeting similarly aged players with ascending value. For example, Jordan Addison, while still firmly the WR2 behind Justin Jefferson, flashed breakout potential last season. With Minnesota now transitioning to JJ McCarthy at QB, Addison could be a sneaky buy-low. A trade involving these two could help reduce your exposure to Olave’s risk while adding a player with a more reliable outlook and fewer concerns.
This is not a full-blown panic sell situation—at least not yet. If you prefer to hold or even buy low on Olave this offseason, there is a path where it significantly pays off. But with numerous documented concussions already, he is truly one more away from a potential career-altering turning point. Add in the growing dysfunction of the Saints’ offense, and the red flags are hard to ignore. If you can still get strong value, now might be a more strategic time to cash out rather than gamble on things turning around. Do not sell for pennies on the dollar, but if a reasonable offer comes along, it is worth seriously considering a move to lower your risk before the window closes.
What do you consider Chris Olave in Dynasty?
#FantasyFootball #dynasty @MyFantasyLeague
— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) May 28, 2025
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/1Fn2Jo8
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