Welcome back to the Dynasty Range of Outcomes series!
As always, this article will take a deeper look at this year’s rookie WR class and assess each player’s potential trajectory in the NFL. By identifying historical comps based on multiple data points, we can determine the likelihood of a player breaking out at the next level. Naturally, this process isn’t perfect, but it should still provide some guidance on what to expect from this WR class.
To quickly recap, we will keep the analysis relatively simple by using four data points to find players that most resemble the 2025 rookie class:
- Draft Capital: Draft capital is the most predictive metric. Players selected earlier in the NFL draft are more likely to receive significant playing time and become valuable assets for dynasty managers. Draft capital also represents a team’s investment in a player, which is why day three RBs are often easily replaced.
- Career Production: While there are a few exceptions, players who dominate in college usually produce at the NFL level. In fact, we consistently see higher hit rates when we control the sample size for draft capital and production. For this analysis, we will use two of the most predictive college metrics: Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (WRs and TEs) and Scrimmage Yards per Team Play (RBs). These two metrics account for usage and efficiency relative to each team’s offense. To find players with similar production profiles, our analysis will apply a 15% threshold in both directions.
- Declare Status: Players entering the league within three years of graduating from high school are classified as early declare prospects. Why does this matter? Historically, early declare prospects have averaged higher breakout rates in the NFL. This is likely because the most talented prospects enter the league as soon as they are eligible, having already achieved significant success at the collegiate level.
- Weight: This data point has one of the lowest correlations to fantasy production. However, it makes sense to filter by weight to avoid comparing De’Von Achane to someone like Derrick Henry, who is over 50 pounds heavier. In this analysis, we will apply a five to ten-pound threshold in both directions to identify players with similar body types.
Before we dive in, keep in mind that this article will not include every prospect from the 2025 class. However, by highlighting the most polarizing and intriguing WRs, dynasty managers can also use this information to evaluate those that did not make the list. Most notably, I intentionally excluded Travis Hunter, who is one of the most difficult players to assess analytically due to his unique profile, playing both cornerback and WR.
For a more detailed breakdown of these metrics, check out our series primer. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Let’s dive into the 2025 WR class!
While this may be a slightly weaker WR class, Tetairoa McMillan still profiles as a prospect with significant upside from a dynasty perspective. Outside of receiving top 10 draft capital, his elite production is what truly sets him apart in this class. For context, McMillan accounted for nearly 38% of Arizona’s entire receiving production in his final two seasons, producing back-to-back +89th percentile campaigns. Because of how dominant he was in his final two seasons, he leads this class in Experience Adjusted production with +0.74 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. He also posted a 99th percentile efficiency score, finishing his career averaging 1.25 Expected Points Added per Target. In other words, he was one of the most impactful college receivers when given the opportunity, ahead of Travis Hunter, Emeka Egbuka, and Matthew Golden. As a result, it should not shock anyone that McMillan’s historical comps include some of the most productive receivers in recent history – Julio Jones, Drake London, and DeAndre Hopkins. And while there always remains the possibility that he fails to break out, his combination of size, draft capital, and production should give us confidence in his potential trajectory in the NFL.
Emeka Egbuka enters the league after four years at Ohio State, mainly operating as their WR2 alongside several elite prospects. That includes Marvin Harrison Jr, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Garrett Wilson. Even last season, he played alongside another potential 1st-round prospect in Jeremiah Smith, further limiting his production in his Senior year. Keep in mind, however, that Egbuka still produced a 92nd percentile Sophomore campaign back in 2022, which highlights his potential upside as he joins the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We also see that reflected in his historical comps, as Brandon Aiyuk is likely the best-case scenario for Egbuka’s trajectory. While he started his career playing behind Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, Aiyuk eventually emerged as a borderline WR1 before dealing with a knee injury last season. I could see a similar career path for Egbuka, who likely will play behind Mike Evans and, potentially, Chris Godwin to start his career. And while Josh Doctson’s name might worry some dynasty managers, I fully believe Egbuka is the better prospect, considering he was much more productive earlier in his career despite tougher competition. As a result, Egbuka holds plenty of upside at his rookie ADP despite a slightly flawed profile.
Mathew Golden has arguably the best landing spot among all first-round receivers, joining a Green Bay offense with a clear opening at WR1. However, while Golden is one of the most athletic receivers in this class, his college production was very underwhelming. My prospect model has him entering the league with only a 53rd percentile production score – one of the lowest we’ve seen by a first-round receiver in recent history. And while Golden did have a productive end to his 2024 campaign, question marks remain regarding his early-career numbers, averaging only 17% of Houston’s receiving yards despite lesser competition. On a positive note, despite Golden’s limited team-adjusted production, he does rank near the top in efficiency (96th percentile), averaging 0.93 EPA per Target throughout his college career. In other words, he was highly impactful when given the opportunity. As for his historical comps, the closest and only player that initially came up was Henry Ruggs. It wasn’t until I extended my production threshold to +35% that Brandin Cooks was added to the list. In other words, while Cooks could be the best-case scenario for Golden, he profiles much closer to Ruggs, who was relatively unproductive as a rookie before off-field issues prematurely ended his career. In short, while his landing spot offers significant upside, I would still temper expectations as players with Golden’s draft profile rarely succeed in the NFL.
Luther Burden III was once projected to be the WR2 of the 2025 class after producing a 96th percentile Sophomore season, outproducing both Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka in 2023. However, because of a disappointing Junior campaign, his draft stock took a significant hit, falling entirely out of the first round of the NFL draft. Despite that, Burden remains one of the most promising day-two prospects. For context, even after a quiet 2024 season, Burden still finished his career with the third-highest experience-adjusted production score in his class. Because of that, his list of historical comps provides some upside, headlined by Jarvis Landry, Robert Woods, and Christian Kirk. While none of them were ever an elite WR1 for fantasy football, all three produced at least one top 20 season in points per game. In the case of Landry and Woods, they managed to produce multiple WR2 campaigns. In short, we should not completely discount Burden’s potential because of a crowded Bears WR corps. Especially at his rookie ADP, Burden could be one of the better values in dynasty drafts this season.
Similar to Burden, we should not dismiss Jayden Higgins‘ upside simply because he joined a team that already has an established WR1 in Nico Collins. In fact, there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic that Higgins could still break out even with Collins operating as the lead receiver. As a prospect, Higgins is one of only eight WRs in this class to finish their careers with positive experience-adjusted production. Why does that matter? We typically see higher hit rates among receivers who exceed that threshold. For context, the average hit rate among day-two WRs is only 33%. Hit rates improve to 50% if we only include prospects with positive experience-adjusted production, which, as I mentioned above, applies to Higgins. In addition, Higgins was extremely efficient when targeted at Iowa State, averaging an impressive 1.07 EPA per Target over the last two seasons. In short, while his upside could be limited with Collins on the roster, Higgins remains one of the better picks in dynasty drafts this season.
Since 2013, WRs drafted in the third round have only averaged a 24.3% hit rate. However, as I mentioned above, WRs with positive experience-adjusted production have been more successful and have historically seen higher hit rates. Because of that, Kyle Williams remains one of my favorite prospects at his rookie ADP because of how productive he was in college, especially earlier in his career. For context, Williams finished his freshman season averaging a 38.2% receiving yards market share. That would rank fifth among all freshman seasons by a drafted WR since 2013, behind only T.Y. Hilton, Stefon Diggs, Julio Jones, and Corey Davis. In addition, Williams has never had a season in which he accounted for less than 20% of his team’s entire receiving production, remaining heavily involved in every season of his collegiate career. As a result, even though Williams offers a wider range of outcomes as a round three prospect, there is still some upside in his profile. Especially if he can replicate Emmanuel Sanders’ career arc, we could be looking at multiple top 20 performances, as Williams should have every opportunity to emerge as Drake Maye’s lead receiver this season.
Speaking of declining hit rates, day three prospects are some of the riskiest investments at the WR position. In fact, only 3.5% of them have broken out since 2013. And even though we do see higher success rates among early-declare prospects with positive experience-adjusted production (18.1%), Jalen Royals unfortunately does not check either of those boxes. As a result, his closest historical comps offer very little upside, as none of the players above have broken out in the NFL. Romeo Doubs is the most productive receiver on this list; however, he has yet to finish a season as a top 40 WR in points per game. On a positive note, Royals led this class in EPA per Target at 1.35, highlighting his elite efficiency at Utah State. Naturally, the landing spot for Royals is extremely intriguing, playing alongside Patrick Mahomes in an efficient offense. However, considering the investment they made in Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, as well as the continued presence of Travis Kelce, we likely need to temper expectations, as his opportunities may be limited in the Chiefs’ offense.
While day three WRs have the lowest hit rates among skill positions, we typically see higher hit rates among players drafted in rounds four and five. In fact, we have NOT seen a single sixth or seventh round WR break out in the NFL since 2013. With that in mind, if I were to target a day three receiver, I would prioritize the ones who produced in college and were drafted in rounds four and five. That includes Elic Ayomanor, who enters the league after an accomplished collegiate career at Stanford. For context, he never had a campaign below a 34% dominator rating (percentage of the team’s receiving production), operating as a true focal point in every season of his career. Because of his dominant production profile, Ayomanor’s list of historical comps offers encouragement that he could be an outlier similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Stefon Diggs. Especially with Calvin Ridley as the only established WR for the Titans, Ayomanor should receive plenty of opportunities to emerge as one of Cam Ward’s favorite targets this season. Regardless, keep in mind that hit rates for fourth-round prospects remain fairly low at only 6.1%. While Ayomanor’s profile stands out as one of the better ones in this class, I would still temper expectations as the Titans could always add another WR or two in free agency or next year’s draft.
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