NFL Pace of Play & DFS Stacks for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

Moving on to Week 4!

A reminder that we look at game environments through a couple of different lenses. Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.

Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and a few stacks to shoot for the moon with.

Game Pace Score

A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

• 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
• 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
• 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
• 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
• 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

For Week 4, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE) and EPA metrics from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score.

If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to nflelo and one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.

Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals

Despite seeing a 50+ total, this game ended up receiving just a 4-out-5 on the GPS scale. Why you ask? Neutral situation pace needs to be where we bring our attention if this game remains close. While Washington and Arizona might both rank in the top-5 on points per game and EPA per pass, they also would prefer things to slow down a bit. Per ETR’s Pat Thorman, “Washington easily ranks first in run rate while games remain close (55%) — scenarios in which Cardinals opponents pass at the third-lowest clip.” Both offenses are more ball control-centric than their overall stats might suggest. I only bring that up because we can let roster percentages dictate where we can find leverage points in this game OR if it’s popularity thanks to Washington’s Monday Night fireworks make it a game to consider coming in underweight.

Depending on what site you use, the Commanders are going to show up as a top-5 offense in EPA per play. That is a wild statement to make for a Kliff Kingsbury offense much less one starting a rookie QB. Jayden Daniels looks cool, calm, and collected running this “college offense” as Bengals CB Cam Taylor-Britt famously said before their loss. Daniels is seeing zone coverage on nearly 80% of his dropbacks, the 6th highest rate in the NFL this far. His aDOT is a paltry 5.2 (6th lowest among qualifying QBs) but it’s working! Per Next Gen Stats, Daniels is the first player to complete all passes under 20 air yards in a game since Lamar Jackson in Week 10, 2019, also against the Bengals (min. 10 such attempts). Kliff prefers to put the team in manageable 2nd and 3rd downs as an astounding 4% of their drives have resulted in a punt. Ok, ok, ok. We get it! The Commanders have been efficient but what can we actually do for fantasy purposes? Other than Terry McLaurin‘s late heroics in Week 3, every other pass-catcher has mostly been irrelevant for DFS purposes. Arizona’s pass defense ranks 28th (one spot further than Washington’s 29th) in explosive pass rate allowed. The Cardinals prefer to play Cover-3 41% of the time where McLaurin posted a strong 27% 1st read target rate in 2023. It’s a different offense but the principles of beating a bend-don’t-break defense like what Jonathan Gannon throws out comes down to hyper-targeting the outside edges. Brian Robinson Jr. certainly is a clear leverage point on Daniels single-stacks as Austin Ekeler‘s absence brings him into strong tournament consideration.

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