Welcome to the 2025 edition of the Risk Bakery. So, what’s this series about? Fantasy managers tend to avoid certain players every year just because they’re generally considered risky. This risk can be associated with many factors, such as injury history, off-field legal issues, being too close to the feared age cliff, being an unproven rookie, and many other less rational reasons.
But the good thing about this general aversion to risk is that when a player is considered “risky,” it spreads throughout the fantasy football community like a virus, affecting his average draft position, making him fall a couple of rounds to a point where drafting him becomes much less of a risky gamble.
For example, let’s look at a rookie from last season: Ladd McConkey. Fantasy managers were hesitant to take him in the mid rounds, even though the Chargers had the most vacant targets. Some feared Jim Harbaugh’s run-first system, and some others simply considered it too risky to bet on a rookie. This dropped his ADP all the way down to WR45 (111th overall), and of course, he had a more than decent rookie campaign and finished as the WR12.
So let’s turn on the oven and get our hands deep into the ADP dough to find those “risky” players whose risk is already baked into their ADP, starting with WRs. And of course, don’t forget to check out The Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft Kit, with comprehensive rankings that include a risk meter for each player. These rankings will be available on June 1st, so don’t miss the chance to get your hands on them.
The oven’s ready. Let’s look at some “risky” WRs.
Chris Olave – New Orleans Saints
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| WR37 | 71 | WR93 |
At this point, it’s almost impossible to read Chris Olave’s name without thinking “no thanks, too risky”. There are many reasons to be worried about him, the first being his head-injury history. He’s had four concussions in three seasons – two of them happened last year, which sidelined him for almost half of the games. The Saints even decided to keep him out at the end of the season once he was cleared to play. After so many concussions, one more could end his career or even have worse consequences. Then there’s the QB situation in New Orleans; now that Derek Carr has retired, the starting QB duties will be carried out by either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler. So yes, there’s a lot of risk around Olave. And that’s exactly why his ADP has fallen to WR37 after being drafted last season as the WR12. Drafting him in the fifth round might still feel a little risky, but can also bring high reward, considering he has virtually no competition for targets besides Alvin Kamara and Rashid Shaheed, who is still recovering from a knee injury.
Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| WR32 | 62 | WR46 |
2024 was bad for Jaylen Waddle. The almighty explosive Dolphins offense was neither almighty nor explosive last season. Waddle’s career started on fire, breaking the most-receptions-by-a-rookie record in 2021 and then having an amazing 1,356-yard sophomore season. Since then, it’s been a downward spiral for the former 6th overall pick. Last season, he didn’t reach the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career and lost an important part of his volume to TE Jonnu Smith and RB De’Von Achane. Tua Tagovailoa’s injury had something to do with this debacle. When Tua is on the field and healthy, Waddle’s numbers usually improve. But of course, for this to happen, Waddle himself has to be healthy as well. He’s had his share of missed and limited games due to knee, ankle, and back injuries. His ADP has been dropping over the past three years, reaching a new low in 2025. He is being drafted as the WR32, around names like Rome Odunze, Jauan Jennings, and the aforementioned Chris Olave. We’ve seen what Jaylen Waddle is capable of doing when the Dolphins’ offense is firing on all cylinders. His volume might not ever be as high as it was during his first two seasons, but the risk is clearly baked into his current ADP, from which he could definitely provide significant upside.
Calvin Ridley – Tennessee Titans
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| WR35 | 67 | WR27 |
Andy’s “My Guy” from last season, Calvin Ridley, felt like a big disappointment in 2024. But he wasn’t that bad, he just had a slow start. But once DeAndre Hopkins was traded away, Ridley took off. He averaged 9.8 points per game and led the NFL with a 48% air-yards share. But expectations were so high that even though he finished as the WR27 (his worst fantasy finish ever), he is being drafted as the WR35. It’s clear fantasy managers want nothing to do with him and consider him extremely risky. But there aren’t many reasons to avoid him, especially at this low cost. Besides, he has a brand new promising rookie QB in first overall pick Cam Ward, who is a very accurate downfield passer. Consider the risk more than baked into Calvin Ridley’s ADP and pick him in the sixth round.
Marvin Harrison Jr. – Arizona Cardinals
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| WR17 | 33 | WR29 |
After being drafted on average as the WR9 without having played a single NFL game, many fantasy managers are running away from Marvin Harrison Jr. But, instead of avoiding him, we should simply learn the lesson and stop having those kinds of expectations for hyped-up rookie players. Despite the disappointment, Harrison Jr. still managed to be one of the most targeted players in the end zone, from which he scored seven of his eight TDs. The volume is there for him, and now he has a much down-to-earth WR17 ADP, which decreases the risk considerably. Also, he has been getting bigger and stronger this offseason, so it isn’t crazy at all to expect a breakout sophomore season from Marvin Harrison Jr.
Deebo Samuel – Washington Commanders
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| WR39 | 75 | WR44 |
Players changing teams after a bad year always seems risky. After years of physical dominance, last season Deebo Samuel turned 29 and had his lowest receiving yards per game and yards per carry. But it wasn’t a normal season. He sustained many injuries and caught pneumonia, which sidelined him for only a couple of weeks, but seemed to still affect him for some more. Many people think he is washed. But I’ll tell you who doesn’t think that: the Washington Commanders, who paid him a hefty 17 million fully guaranteed contract. His versatility can be a great fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s dynamic offense. Will he earn enough targets to be fantasy relevant again? That will depend on him recovering his separation and contested catches abilities, which sort of disappeared last season. So yes, Deebo Samuel is a risky player, but that’s why he is being drafted almost where he finished in 2024, which should be around his floor.
Jerry Jeudy – Cleveland Browns
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| WR31 | 60 | WR15 |
The situation in Cleveland is complicated. At the time of writing, they still have five QBs on the roster, and we still can’t be sure who will be the starter. With two rookies in the mix, this could turn into another year of QB roulette. This can be a scary proposition for the Browns’ receivers. As fantasy managers, we can only hope Joe Flacco gets the job, which would help mitigate the risk. But there are reasons to be optimistic about Jerry Jeudy’s fantasy outlook in 2025. As I mentioned in this vacated targets article, no team has more available targets than the Cleveland Browns. Jeudy’s 2024 campaign took off after Deshaun Watson got injured and Amari Cooper was traded away. Cedric Tillman showed flashes of brilliance, but Jeudy is the clear WR1 in the offense with the most vacated targets. At WR31, he doesn’t seem so risky, all things considered. On the contrary, Jeudy could end up being an upside pick.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/C5GhdEc
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