Every year, fantasy football managers do their best to identify breakout stars who can carry them to a championship. Loyal FootClan members who follow our show are often ahead of the curve, but even the sharpest drafters can take a big swing and completely miss.
Despite a solid process, early-round picks can still bust. A whiff of that magnitude can derail roster construction and crush title hopes before the season gets into full swing. In this article, we will spotlight three of the biggest busts from the 2024 fantasy season, breaking down what went wrong and, more importantly, how to avoid repeating those mistakes in 2025.
1. CJ Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
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What Were We Thinking?
C.J. Stroud did not just have a promising rookie year. He burst onto the scene. He finished 2023 as the QB11 and closed out the season on fire, delivering four top-ten finishes over his final eight games. That strong stretch vaulted his ADP to 53.4, making him the fifth QB off the board in many drafts the following year. But once the hype faded and the games began, Stroud turned out to be the season’s biggest bust at the QB position. He finished as the QB18, falling well short of expectations, and topped 20 fantasy points just once in four-point per passing TD scoring. He ended up finishing outside the top 24 QBs in nine of his 17 games and averaged only 13.7 fantasy points per game. That tied him for 33rd in the league with Kirk Cousins, who was benched after a disastrous season. Managers who counted on Stroud to take a leap in year two were left frustrated and likely scrambling on the waiver wire or trade market just to stay afloat.
What Went Wrong?
Despite playing all 17 games, Stroud threw just 20 TDs, completed only 63.2% of his passes, and his 12 INTs were tied for the fourth most in the league. He entered the season with sky-high expectations, but his supporting cast fell apart quickly. Nico Collins missed 5.5 games, and both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell suffered season-ending injuries. This certainly played a role in Stroud’s struggles, but even with all three playmakers active, his output remained underwhelming. On top of that, his offensive line struggled to protect him, leaving Stroud under constant pressure. While these issues clearly contributed to his disappointing performance, this serves as a reminder of the risks that come with banking on rookie breakout QBs to immediately repeat their success. Recognizing those red flags can help you avoid a costly mistake if an unexpected second-year slump strikes.
Lessons Learned
As mentioned earlier, relying on a rookie breakout to sustain that level of success in year two is not always the safest strategy. Stroud was drafted as the fifth QB off the board in 2024, largely fueled by hype and projection rather than proven, repeatable production. Stroud’s lack of rushing upside limited his fantasy ceiling, and for a pocket passer to truly deliver in fantasy football, he needs to throw a high volume of TDs to provide both floor and ceiling. The encouraging news is that Stroud may have recognized the need to diversify his game. In each of his two playoff appearances, he ran for 42 yards on six carries, showing a willingness to tap into his athleticism. If he continues to add that element, he could be in line for a fantasy bounce-back at a much more reasonable draft cost. That said, his offensive line actually regressed this offseason, so expectations should be tempered.
So, what can we learn from Stroud’s disappointing 2024 season heading into 2025? The key is to be cautious when projecting rookie QB success into year two. Three rookies finished inside the top 20 in fantasy scoring last season: Jayden Daniels (QB5), Bo Nix (QB7), and Caleb Williams (QB16). Daniels is expected to be a top-three QB in fantasy drafts, and his elite rushing upside gives him a higher floor and ceiling than Stroud had going into his sophomore year. Still, no one is immune to a second-year slump, and Daniels could underwhelm relative to his lofty draft price. For that reason, some managers may prefer the safety of proven veterans like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, or Joe Burrow over rolling the dice on Daniels.
Nix and Williams come with more risk. Nix will likely be drafted early after a strong rookie campaign, and while I am cautiously optimistic about his outlook, his draft cost will need to stay in check. His mobility gives him a boost, and if the value is appropriate, he could deliver again. Williams, on the other hand, feels more volatile. While his rookie year was not great, he flashed elite traits, and Chicago’s strong offseason could cause his ADP to climb beyond what his rookie performance warrants. If that happens, he stands out as the second-year QB that I will be most wary of. The talent is there, but the gap between hype and production could make him a trap pick in 2025, much like Stroud was in 2024.
2. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
What Were We Thinking?
The hype surrounding Marvin Harrison Jr. (MHJ) was already sky-high coming out of college, but after the Arizona Cardinals selected him with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, it quickly reached another level. He had the draft capital, a clear path to targets, and a dynamic QB in Kyler Murray. What could possibly go wrong? As the excitement continued to build, Harrison’s ADP soared to 20.7, making him the first rookie off the board and placing him ahead of several established and reliable veterans. But this was not just any prospect. MHJ was viewed as the next Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, someone expected to dominate from day one.
What Went Wrong?
Even when a player is dubbed a “can’t-miss generational talent,” it is rarely wise to assume that they will hit their prime in their rookie season. Unfortunately, anyone who bought into the MHJ hype and paid his steep draft cost learned that the hard way. He finished as the WR29 overall and just WR42 in points per game, averaging a disappointing 9.7 fantasy points. For context, that was 0.1 fantasy points less than what Quentin Johnston averaged last season. Harrison failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in nine games and was outperformed by multiple rookie WRs drafted much later, including Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Xavier Worthy.
Inconsistency was the theme of Harrison’s rookie year. After a one-catch, four-yard debut that ranked him as the WR105, he exploded the very next week with four catches for 130 yards and two TDs, finishing as the WR1. That kind of volatility continued throughout the season, with seven finishes as the WR51 or worse. While his eight TDs kept him afloat, he did not deliver the week-to-week brilliance many expected.
While MHJ failed to live up to the towering expectations placed on him, his rookie year was not a total bust. He still racked up nearly 900 yards and scored eight TDs. The problem is that those numbers did not justify a second-round ADP, and the expectations placed on him were unrealistic for a player who had not taken an NFL snap. Whether he was battling an undisclosed injury or simply lacked the burst and sharpness we saw at Ohio State, his route running looked less polished than advertised. His connection with Murray also never clicked, as the two often looked completely out of sync. Like most rookies, he needed time to adjust to the NFL, but due to his ADP, fantasy managers did not have the luxury of waiting, leaving no room for error.
Lessons Learned
What can we learn from the thousands of fantasy managers who swung for generational greatness and came up empty? While some rookies do break out right away, most need time to adjust to the NFL, making them a riskier investment in the early rounds of fantasy drafts compared to proven veterans. Sure, anomalies like Ja’Marr Chase or Brock Bowers can enter the league and instantly look like seasoned pros, but they are the exception, not the rule. Even then, neither came into the league with the fantasy draft price tag Harrison carried as a rookie. When they hit, it was a pleasant surprise, not an expectation or necessity. That is why we often recommend targeting rookie WRs in trades during the second half of the season. It is usually during this adjustment window that they start to find their footing and break out.
Fantasy managers are constantly chasing the unknown. We often overlook reliable producers in favor of the shiny mystery box, hoping it holds something special. But more often than not, your odds of success are better when you stick with what is proven. Betting an early-round pick on a player who has never played an NFL snap introduces unnecessary risk, and if that player falters, it can set your season back in a big way.
So, when a rookie receiver is being drafted early, think twice. Consider taking a dependable veteran with similar upside and far less risk. As for Harrison, I will be back in for year two. I expect his ADP to slide after a rocky rookie season, and I will be ready to buy the dip. With a year of experience under his belt, I believe he will remind everyone why he was billed as a generational talent in the first place.
3. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
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What Were We Thinking?
When a rookie TE selected in the first round flashes major potential, the fantasy community is going to take notice. Despite beginning his debut season behind Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid quickly made his presence felt, finishing among the top 10 TEs in both receptions and yards while recording seven top-12 weekly finishes. He and Sam LaPorta were the only rookie TEs to eclipse 100 fantasy points in 2023, a strong early indicator of what could come.
Although Kincaid finished as just the TE12 in his rookie year, he entered 2024 with a combination of talent and opportunity that few at the position could match. For starters, he was tied to one of the league’s best QBs in Josh Allen, giving him elite TD and yardage upside. Then came the blockbuster departure of Stefon Diggs, who left behind a massive 160 targets. Kincaid looked like the most reliable pass-catcher left standing and a prime candidate to absorb a significant chunk of that volume, which pushed his ADP up to 59.4 and made him the fifth TE selected in fantasy drafts heading into the 2024 season.
The rationale for drafting Kincaid at his inflated 2024 ADP was straightforward: a talented young TE, paired with an elite QB, and positioned to capitalize on a major opportunity gap in the offense. Given his strong rookie year and the favorable situation in front of him, Kincaid looked poised to make a big leap in 2024 and become a difference-maker at one of fantasy football’s toughest positions to fill.
What Went Wrong?
Unfortunately, those who banked on Kincaid making a second-year leap ended up crashing hard. He finished the season as the TE29, averaging just six fantasy points per game. He recorded only one TE1 finish all year, and even that was inflated by a rare TD. Kincaid found the end zone just twice all season and never came close to becoming a reliable target in the Bills’ offense. Even when the volume was there, the efficiency was not. Kincaid caught only 59% of his 75 targets and posted an 8% drop rate, often squandering opportunities with either miscommunications or minimal yardage.
Allen and the Bills continued their trend of spreading the ball around, making it nearly impossible to predict which pass-catcher would benefit from week to week. Injuries were part of the story, but even when healthy, Kincaid looked more like a role player than a rising star. The Bills leaned heavily on the run game and frequently played with a lead, limiting the need for high-volume passing. In the end, Kincaid had everything working in his favor: an elite QB, a high-powered offense, and plenty of vacated targets up for grabs, yet he still failed to deliver. He was given the keys to a Ferrari, but stalled out before he ever got out of the driveway.
Lessons Learned
What can we take away from Kincaid’s disappointing 2024 season? Even when a player appears to be in an ideal situation with plenty of targets available, talent should always be prioritized over opportunity and situation. If a player is not capable of seizing the role, it does not matter how favorable the setup is. They are simply not worth a premium draft pick. This is especially true at TE, where only a few players actually move the needle in fantasy. Even a backend TE1 often provides little weekly advantage.
It is usually better to invest early in a proven difference-maker or wait and use that draft capital on more impactful positions. At Kincaid’s 2024 ADP, managers passed up on players like Malik Nabers, James Conner, David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin, or even George Kittle. Banking on a breakout purely due to opportunity is rarely worth the risk when there are more reliable and valuable options on the board.
Looking ahead to 2025, only a few TEs stand out as potential draft-day traps due to inflated value tied to vacated targets. Brenton Strange could see some sleeper buzz if he steps into a larger role following the departures of Evan Engram and Christian Kirk in Jacksonville. Cole Kmet may also generate hype with Keenan Allen gone and excitement building around Chicago’s revamped offense. If either player sees their ADP rise into the middle rounds, it is likely smarter to pivot toward more proven players or other positions entirely.
Even a more established option like Jonnu Smith, coming off a career year, could be worth avoiding if his ADP climbs too high and outweighs his realistic upside. The same caution applies to incoming rookies like Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland if they land in seemingly ideal spots. While they could have strong seasons, it remains unlikely they replicate the instant impact of Sam LaPorta or Brock Bowers. If their cost creeps into the early or middle rounds, it is likely wiser to pass and invest in a more reliable option or a more impactful position.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/gE4u3NH
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