NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives. Every Tuesday on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast, we give a “state of the main slate” which briefly highlights some of the findings in this article. For the full look, make sure you get in on The Ultimate DFS Pass and check out Kyle’s First Look Pricing for Wild Card Weekend.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at the time of publishing.
Team Implied Totals for Wild Card Weekend
1. BUF – 27.5
2. TB – 26.8
3. BAL – 26.5
4. PHI – 25.0
5. MIN – 24.5 (Monday night)
6. WAS – 23.8
7. LAR – 23.0 (Monday night)
8. LAC – 22.5
9. GB – 20.5
10. HOU – 20.0
11. DEN – 19.0
12. PIT – 17.0
Saturday Slate
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans, LAC -2.5, O/U: 42.5
Wild Card Weekend kicks off on Saturday afternoon when the Chargers travel to NRG Stadium for a 4-5 matchup with the AFC South champs. Unfortunately, the slate kicks off with the lowest total of the weekend with this one currently sitting at just 42.5. With Houston games hitting the under at a 35% clip in 2024, their games have really struggled to pop off when it comes to ceiling for DFS purposes. Without Diggs and Tank Dell, the Houston offense really fizzled out down the stretch, particularly from a play volume perspective. From Weeks 11-17, HOU ranked 31st in plays per game while going under their implied team total in four straight contests before Week 18’s chaos ensued. Expecting the Texans to pop up for a big score is wishful thinking these days as we look back on the highs of the 2023 season…perhaps Justin Herbert and the Bolts can push it on the other side here, but even if they do, we really haven’t seen Stroud stacks pay off in a meaningful way this year, and the matchup isn’t a cake walk by any means. LA ranks #1 in defensive scoring this year, holding opponents under their team total by an average of 2.5 points across the entire season. Only the Broncos on the road in Buffalo and the Steelers against a division rival have a lower implied team total than Houston.
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