NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives. Every Tuesday on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast, we give a “state of the main slate” which briefly highlights some of the findings in this article. For the full look, make sure you get in on The Ultimate DFS Pass and check out Kyle’s First Look Pricing for the Conference Championship Round.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at the time of publishing.
Team Implied Totals for the Conference Championship Round
1. Philadelphia Eagles – 26.8
2. Kansas City Chiefs – 24.5
3. Buffalo Bills – 23.0
4. Washington Commanders – 20.8
Game Previews
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles, PHI -6, O/U: 47.5
The Final Four kicks off Sunday afternoon with an NFC East showdown as the white hot Commanders travel to Philly as six-point road dogs against the Eagles. Worth noting, this line opened at 4.5 and has quickly moved to 6 with early bettors backing the Birds. We’ve seen these teams matchup twice already with these rivals splitting the regular season 1-1. In Week 11, Philly imposed their will in the run game en route to a 26-18 victory. In Week 16, the Commanders pulled off the upset with a wild 36-33 victory, but it’s worth noting that’s the game where Jalen Hurts left early with a concussion.
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