When the Chicago Bears signed DJ Moore to a four-year, $110 million extension, the expectation was that he would be the centerpiece of a revitalized offense under young QB Caleb Williams. However, following this extension, Moore has shown a decline in production, making fans and fantasy football managers skeptical of his value.
This article will explore his 2026 outlook based on his recent production and salary cap impact. Let’s jump into the numbers!
It’s no secret that Moore’s numbers are heading in the wrong direction. After a career year in 2023 (1,364 yards, nine TDs) and a frustrating 2024 (966 yards, crowded room, bad scheme), the 2025 campaign brought another step back: 50 receptions, 682 yards, six TDs in 17 games. His catch rate plummeted to 58.8%, which is the worst since his Carolina days, and his 9.5 fantasy points per game didn’t produce much trust from fantasy owners. However, the Bears made the playoffs, went 12-5 in the regular season, and Caleb Williams posted a massive Year 2 leap with 3,942 passing yards and 27 TDs. Moore’s struggles seemingly can’t be thrown on the offense, bringing the question of how he fits into this talent-dense receiving room moving forward.
Below is a breakdown of the complete Bears receiving room, 2025 regular season:
A few things jump immediately. First is the incredibly balanced nature of this receiving core; four players between 600 and 750 yards, three of them posting six TDs each. Second, DJ Moore simply is not the WR1 on this team anymore by production, even though he led in games played and was second in targets. Rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III both outshone Moore, posting over 1.5 yards per route run to Moore’s 1.22, and catch rates above 70% to Moore’s 58.8%. The torch is being passed.
The visuals shown below highlight this. Figure 1 shows player target share vs. catch rate: while commanding a high number of targets, Moore’s catch production was shockingly low, below the league average. Figure 2 shows targets vs. receiving yards: Moore produces well in this category, but evidently so do three other targets on the team. Finally, Figure 3 shows player season totals over a number of stats. While DJ Moore is the number-two guy in multiple categories (targets, receptions, receiving yards), he is not the sole leader in any stat, showing his non-dominance as a supposed WR1. His yards per route run is also the second lowest in the receiving core, showing the decrease in production as well as his decreased use in big-play scenarios (bigger plays, more yards = longer routes run).
The Loveland Problem
Colston Loveland‘s 2025 debut was spectacular. The No. 10 overall pick led the Bears in receptions (58), yards (713), and tied for the team lead in TDs (six) — numbers that immediately cemented him as a top-5 fantasy TE. He did this despite starting the season as TE2 behind Cole Kmet and didn’t become the clear starter until around Week 9, when Kmet’s ankle injury opened the door.
Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
For fantasy purposes heading into 2026, Loveland is clearly a top-tier TE. His trajectory from TE-afterthought to TE2 in the league in the span of eight weeks is one of the more impressive mid-season ascensions in recent memory. With a TE becoming a major part of the receiving mix, this is immediately going to take opportunity away from DJ Moore.
The Burden Problem (Pun intended)
Luther Burden III might have had the most fascinating rookie season of any player in the 2025 class. His season-long stat line — 47 receptions, 652 yards, two TDs in 15 games — looks pedestrian on the surface. But it’s truly a story of two acts.
Burden was mostly a gadget piece all season: 13 yards per catch, explosive in spots, but never trusted as a consistent option. However, Rome Odunze‘s injury in Week 13 opened up an opportunity for Burden. From this point on, his efficiency numbers were extraordinary: 78.3% catch rate, 7.3 yards after contact per reception (fourth in the NFL among WRs), 13.9 yards per catch. His 60 targets and two TDs look like a bust of a season, but his role expanded massively late, and Williams’ trust in him grew late as well. Another rookie in the mix, at a must-less expensive cost to the Bears, will yet be another massive barrier for DJ Moore in this offense. A trade seems to be the best option at the surface level for Chicago.
Contract Analysis and Bottom Line
Moore carries a $28.5M cap hit in 2026 and 2027, with a dead cap of $35.5M if cut in 2026. If he isn’t traded, the Bears are financially locked in. This essentially ties his fantasy value to whether he is traded or not. If Moore is dealt to another team that takes on his large contract, he will likely have a larger role and opportunity to improve on his last two seasons. If Chicago can’t move on from Moore, his value will be very low, as his younger, higher upside counterparts are already showing to be more productive than he is.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/qO0kIfS
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