Happy playoffs season! In this article, I will break down some team performance trends and insights, followed by some player insights near the end. Let’s jump right into things.
Offensive Takeaways
The 49ers, Rams, and Dolphins are all teams who have shown much more life offensively in recent weeks. Looking at their cumulative EPA trends for offense, they’ve shot into the net positive zone just in time for playoffs. The 49ers and Rams face each other for Thursday Night Football, which could prove to be a high-scoring game as both teams have a negative EPA/play defensively this season. The Dolphins have the Texans in Week 15, which isn’t a great matchup, but Houston has cooled down defensively based on their cumulative EPA trend.
The Bills have been a juggernaut offensively, taking the top spot in EPA/play in the league. Josh Allen has hit his groove, and Amari Cooper‘s 14 targets in Week 14 is definitely a good sign for fantasy managers still waiting for the veteran to produce. James Cook has been inconsistent but should have the chance to perform in Week 15 against a banged-up Lions D-line.
The Broncos’ offense is rolling—they have a 0.0 EPA/play on the season but cumulatively have shot up into the positive margin, indicating an offensive hot hand. They face a mediocre Colts defense in Week 15, so look to slot your Broncos stars like Courtland Sutton and Bo Nix into your lineups.
Be cautious of the Packers this week—while they’ve been flying high offensively, they face the Seahawks’ defense in Week 15, which has posted a 0.03 EPA/play on the year. This one has the potential to be a trap game for fantasy purposes.
The Bengals are rolling on offense, at a 0.09 EPA/play on the season, and a cumulative EPA trend rising steadily. The Ballers mentioned a great point this week about how Cincy is still in the playoff hunt, meaning their starting are going in ready to win and post big numbers.
Some players you may want to keep an eye on matchup-wise for Week 15:
Rico Dowdle: The Cowboys face a terrible Panthers defense who have posted a -0.09 EPA/play this season. Dowdle has taken over the lead role in Dallas and should see success this week.
Kyler Murray: Arizona faces the Patriots, who have shown a -0.03 EPA/play this season and are trending in the negative direction based on the cumulative chart.
Malik Nabers: Nabers faces the Ravens’ secondary in Week 15 and should put up strong numbers despite the game being likely one-sided. The Ravens have a -0.05 EPA/play on defense, so if there is any production from the Giants it will come through Nabers.
Defensive Takeaways
As far as fantasy options go, this week’s best is the Minnesota Vikings. The Ballers ranked them first overall, as they face a struggling Chicago offense, and have posted 0.08 EPA/play defensively this year.
While the Ravens have been rough on defense this season and may give up some big numbers to stars like Malik Nabers, expect the defense to put up points in fantasy. The Ballers have them ranked third this week, as the Giants rank 29th in EPA efficiency this season.
Despite posting a negative defensive efficiency this season, the Commanders, who are coming off a bye, face the Derek Carr-less Saints in Week 15. Look for a great defensive performance from this squad.
The Seahawks’ defense has picked up in efficiency late in the season, now holding a 0.03 EPA/play. They have the Vikings in Week 15 but the Bears in Week 16, so they could be a strong stash for later playoff rounds.
To wrap up the defensive section, please note the decline in defensive performance from the Bears, Bills, Dolphins, and Rams in recent weeks. (via the cumulative sum chart below). They face the Vikings, Lions, Texans, and 49ers, respectively, meaning big weeks for players on these teams in Week 15.
* Below find the cumulative EPA chart for each team.
*Below find the EPA rankings (ranked by offensive EPA) for each team.
Finally, let’s wrap things up with some player profiles.
Player Profiles
Jordan Addison: Addison’s efficiency is through the roof, and he’s put up insane numbers in fantasy lately. While he is likely to cool down, it may not be this week as they face the Bears in Minnesota.
Adam Thielen: The veteran receiver has been a great calming presence for Bryce Young since coming back from injury. His efficiency has been incredible, and they face Dallas in Week 15. If you’re debating between Thielen and a high-volatility player, and if you are the favorite in your matchup this week, stick to Thielen who has shown great consistency.
Drake London: London is still putting up decent numbers efficiency-wise despite the Falcons’ recent struggles. Stick to him as we head towards the playoffs.
Aaron Jones: Jones’ struggles have been apparent, especially through his negative EPA/play this season. Be wary of him heading to playoffs.
Rachaad White vs. Bucky Irving: While Irving got banged up in Week 14, he has the better efficiency in the Tampa Bay backfield this season—he’s seen more carries now than White has on the season and has earned his way into the passing game. While he might not get volume in Week 15 because of injury, he will be a sure start in other weeks to come.
D’Andre Swift: Swifty season is over. D’Andre Swift‘s efficiency has tumbled, and the Bears’ entire offense is going with it. They take on a stout Vikings defense in Week 15, so don’t expect much from Swift in this one.
That’s all for this article, be sure to check back for more team performance trends next week!
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/tIejAlT
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