Cleveland Browns
Cedric Tillman 90%; Jerry Jeudy 97%
Oh, what a difference a quarterback makes.
The change to Jameis Winston at quarterback paid off big for the Browns’ pass-catchers – all of them: Njoku, Tillman, Jeudy, and even Elijah Moore got into the mix in a big way, leading the team with 12 targets.
The player who looks the best to me on the field remains Cedric Tillman. He’s a big tall receiver and one who had an interesting prospect profile coming out of Tennessee. He saw nine targets himself, which was second on the team, and popped the most on the screen. I liked how he bounced off defenders who tried shoulder tackles, and I loved how he got behind the defense when he caught the game-winning play. This is an exciting player to target, especially now that the QB play is at least competent.
The change to Winston even helped Nick Chubb. While his final numbers weren’t spectacular, he did become the first running back to exceed 50 yards rushing against this Ravens defense, so that is notable.
Jeudy still appears to just be a guy, and the Elijah Moore stuff was mostly manufactured small touches. Still, there was a lot of stuff that went his way. He’s a good PPR waiver wire target on what is looking like a pretty lackluster waiver week.
Conclusion: Cedric Tillman is the number one waiver target this week; Elijah Moore is someone interesting in PPR leagues. I’ll pass on Jerry Jeudy.
Houston Texans
Robert Woods 34%; John Metchie 28%
Stefon Diggs was having a great game, but unfortunately, he left the game in the third quarter with a non-contact injury. It doesn’t sound good, and it didn’t look good. At this point, I would be shocked if it wasn’t season-ending.
After he left the game, Robert Woods and John Metchie were called as the next men up. They each saw a few targets in the fourth quarter after the injury. It’s hard to say which one was playing more of the “Diggs Role,” especially because Houston was mostly trying to run the ball and bleed out the clock at that point. It seemed to my eyes like Woods played a little more, but maybe he’s the better run blocker.
I am not sure that either Metchie or Woods will really excite anyone on the waiver wire, particularly Woods, who is now 32 years old. He does have a history of producing though, something Metchie hasn’t done since college (but we should give him a break, he did have to beat leukemia in the meantime). I guess my money is on Metchie, just given the age.
Conclusion: A low FAAB bid on Metchie is probably the right priority, but a $0 bid on Woods may pay off in this Texans offense.
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane 58%; Raheem Mostert 46%
Like with the Browns, a change at QB made a huge difference. In this case, it was the return of Tua Tagovailoa from a concussion.
It was great news, in particular for the running backs because the offense was scoring points again. Achane and Mostert scored three total touchdowns and Achane led the way with 18 opportunities to Mostert’s 11. Achane’s eight targets for six catches, 50 yards, and a touchdown is very exciting, but here’s the bad news. All four of the carries inside the 10-yard line went to Raheem Mostert. Mostert was deadly in this area of the field last year, and apparently nothing has changed. Mostert is the Dolphins’ goal-line back, so games like this, where he rushes for only 19 yards but scores two touchdowns might be somewhat common.
Achane remains the exciting running back, but Mostert remains the goal-line back. That limits Achane’s upside.
Conclusion: Achane is fantastic, especially in the passing game, but Mostert will dominate green zone carries.
Las Vegas Raiders
Alexander Mattison 66%; Zamir White 3%
Zamir White’s return from injury did not affect Mattison’s stranglehold over the Raiders’ backfield. White saw only two carries, which turned into a pitiful negative one yards, and he barely played. He received a carry in the first quarter and another early in the second quarter. The Raiders’ coaching staff, smartly, saw how ineffective he was and phased him out of the offense.
Without any real backfield competition, Mattison got 14 carries and five targets. Of course, he did next to nothing with those opportunities (44 total yards, no touchdowns).
Mattison’s usage is hard to ignore, but his efficiency is pretty bad. Outside of last week, this has been pretty common. We can give him a slight pass given that the Raiders played probably the best defense in the NFL. But still, this is a pretty bad team.
Conclusion: Mattison remains in the flex conversation simply due to usage. Could be useable against better matchups.
Buffalo Bills
Amari Cooper 50%
Amari Cooper was very disappointing in this game. He only caught one of his two targets for a mere three yards, which is particularly disappointing in view of the Bills scoring 31 points and accumulating 445 total yards. Cooper played behind Khalil Shakir and well behind Keon Coleman.
His 50% snaps is quite disappointing, but it was an improvement over last week (35%). I guess he’s trending in the right direction. I am just not so sure, after almost two weeks with the team, that they expect him to be an alpha. This production looks a bit more like Stefon Diggs’ second half of 2023 after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. Maybe that’s a good comparison, and not 2022 Stefon Diggs, which I think we all assumed.
Conclusion: Temper expectations for Amari Cooper in view of Stefon Diggs’s 2023 second half, after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator.
San Francisco 49ers
Chris Conley 76%
Despite the 49ers having two somewhat exciting rookie wide receivers (Jacob Cowing and Ricky Pearsall), Kyle Shanahan opted to replace Brandon Aiyuk with 32-year-old journeyman, Chris Conley. Conley played the most snaps of any 49ers skill position player. Despite running all those routes, he saw one target that he didn’t catch.
Instead, the offense ran through George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. Ricky Pearsall had a few gadget plays drawn up for him, but outside of a 39-yard end-around, he was not a huge part of the offense. He looked more like Jauan Jennings when all the 49ers’ skill players were healthy.
Conclusion: Cowing and Pearsall are not fantasy-relevant if Chris Conley continues to get a huge amount of meaningless snaps.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Trey Palmer 70%; Jalen McMillan 81%
It’s a fool’s errand to try and pigeonhole Palmer and McMillan into one or both of the Godwin/Evans roles as they are not really replaceable. But still, it was Palmer and McMillan who ran the most routes and snaps in the game, playing the de facto WR1 and WR2 roles on the depth chart.
McMillan popped more on tape, and his seven targets confirmed the eye test on this one. Someone else who popped during the end of the game was Rakim Jarrett, who was activated from IR to play in this game. Rakim didn’t show up on the box score until the fourth quarter, but he caught all three of his targets for 58 yards. He even caught the Hail Mary (out of bounds of course). I think he showed something.
Still, the Bucs planned for the absence of Godwin and Evans primarily by reintroducing the NFL to Cade Otton. Otton led the team in targets with 10, and he caught all but one. His routes were short but clearly designed for him to be the primary target. He’s a big-time add if he’s available.
Conclusion: Cade Otton and Jalen McMillan are the Buccaneers’ pass-catchers to roster. Keep an eye on Rakim Jarrett.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/dAGPk37
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