On to Week 5!
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 5, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE) and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no-huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients year-to-year.
Pace Over Expectation through Week 4
– Kliff Kingsbury has the slowest pace over expectation team in the NFL. Imagine if that speeds up
– In a game the Jets were trailing they finally picked up the pace a bit
– Falcons have shootout potential if they can get the offense going pic.twitter.com/RwqFzBLX6C— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) October 1, 2024
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
We get a doozy of an AFC North matchup here that sets up quite well for DFS purposes: Baltimore’s defense is a clear pass funnel and Cincinnati’s defense ranks in the bottom-10 of EPA per play. If this game were played later in the season, we might need to factor in weather and temperate concerns but at first glance, there should be enough fireworks. This game received just a 4/5 with Baltimore’s super low PROE (32nd) and Cincinnati’s plays per game (t-26th) holding some of our expectations in check.
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