Whether we like it or not, the playoff picture in your fantasy league is already taking shape. After four weeks in the fantasy season, fantasy managers are either feeling good about their position in their league or scrambling to keep the train on the tracks to make sure they still have a shot at getting into the fantasy postseason. Getting a win in Week 5 all starts with making the right lineup decisions! Each week I’ll walk through a handful of matchups at each position that could make the difference in getting that crucial win!
As always, make sure to check out each of the Ballers’ rankings to maximize your lineup!
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs New Orleans
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| QB12 | QB12 | QB12 |
QB12 |
It’s pretty weird to have to even consider having Patrick Mahomes in your fantasy lineup, but that’s where we’re at in the 2024 fantasy season. While Mahomes is easily still one of the top QBs in the NFL, his fantasy output has been underwhelming for fantasy managers who invested a high pick for him during draft season. Currently, Mahomes is the QB16 on the season and hasn’t registered a top-12 QB finish in a single week. In fact, Mahomes hasn’t finished as a top-12 QB for fantasy since Week 12 of 2023, so it’s worth having a thought exercise for fantasy managers to decide if he’s worth continuing to have in their lineups.
Getting back to the top-end fantasy production that fantasy managers are looking for may be tough for Mahomes this week with a tough matchup against the Saints. The New Orleans defense hasn’t allowed an opposing QB to score more than 15.2 fantasy points in a single game this season with the highest QB finish being QB15 in Week 2 to Dak Prescott. Mahomes’ best bet to turn things around would be getting into the end zone at least twice, and the Saints’ defense has only allowed one passing TD on the season so far. With limited receiving options for Kansas City with Rashee Rice’s injury, it might be worth looking elsewhere this week for fantasy.
Kurt would prefer to play: QB15 – Dak Prescott at Pittsburgh.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) vs Indianapolis
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| QB16 | QB21 | QB17 |
QB15 |
The fantasy season has been rough through the first month for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense as a whole. Through their first four games, Jacksonville’s offense hasn’t scored more than 20 points once and Lawrence’s fantasy output hasn’t been helpful for winning matchups. If there’s any positive for Lawrence’s play, he’s only thrown one interception this season and the Jaguars’ poor defense should mean he’ll need to throw plenty throughout the year. Still, only completing 53% of his passes won’t be good enough to make fantasy managers trust him in their lineups even with a promise of opportunity from week to week.
At this point, considering putting Lawrence into a fantasy lineup will be completely dependent on the matchup he’s facing in a given week, and Week 5 presents one of those times against the Colts. Indianapolis has allowed the sixth most passing yards in the league this season and more importantly, allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing QBs. In their four games this year, the Colts have allowed a top-10 QB in three games, including the QB1 finish to Justin Fields last week. Interestingly enough, Indianapolis has allowed a QB to rush for 40+ yards twice already this year, an added bonus that Lawrence is capable of to help provide some value for fantasy. If you’re looking for a streaming option, playing the matchup game this week with Lawrence might not be a bad decision.
Kurt would play Lawrence over: QB14 – Deshaun Watson at Washington.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) vs Miami
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB19 | RB19 | RB19 |
RB21 |
After a strong start to the season, the last two weeks have been rough for fantasy managers with Rhamondre Stevenson. Over his last two games, Stevenson has just 24 opportunities and a combined 6.5 fantasy points. What’s more concerning are the fumble issues that Stevenson has caught to start the year, fumbling in every game so far this season. Before the start of the year, Stevenson had just seven fumbles in the last three seasons combined. If Stevenson can’t hold on to the ball securely, the Patriots may look to Antonio Gibson more, who’s been better on a per-carry average, and has been effective in the receiving game over the last several outings.
Week 5 presents a great opportunity for Stevenson to get back on track for fantasy managers with a strong matchup against the Dolphins. Miami’s defense is actually rated as PFF’s seventh-best rush defense on the season, but they’ve allowed plenty of fantasy production this season. Over their last three games, the Dolphins have allowed four top-24 RB finishes, two of which came just last week in the same game. Stevenson may be limited by the production overall on the Patriots’ offense, but this may be his last chance at maintaining the lead RB role in New England, and could fall from being a consistent RB2 option for fantasy managers if he can’t produce this week.
Kurt would play Stevenson over: RB20 – Kareem Hunt vs New Orleans.
Rachaad White (TB) at Atlanta
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB25 | RB25 | RB24 | RB23 |
There have been some disturbing trends in the usage of Rachaad White in the Buccaneers’ offense. After finishing as the RB7 in 2023, White has seen his percentage of Tampa Bay’s opportunities decrease each week to start 2024, bottoming out last week against the Eagles at just 18%. For reference, the lowest percentage of the opportunities he saw last season in a single week was 21%. It seems that rookie RB Bucky Irving has carved out a decent chunk of work for the Buccaneers, mainly due to him being much more efficient with the work that he’s been given out of the backfield, so that decrease in work could continue to trend downward if White can’t find a way to be more productive when given the ball.
The best part of White’s game that hasn’t disappeared has been his ability in the receiving game for Tampa Bay, and that might be the key to success this week against the Falcons. Over the last three weeks, Atlanta’s defense has allowed 14 receptions for 78 yards to their opponents’ leading RBs. The Falcons have been strong otherwise against opposing fantasy RBs, only allowing two top-24 finishes on the season. If White can find a way to stay on the field and not cede any more work to Irving in the running game, there’s a chance he can still be a decent flex option (played in your RB spot because he’s playing on Thursday night) for Week 5.
Kurt would prefer to play: RB30 – Tank Bigsby vs Indianapolis.
Justice Hill (BAL) at Cincinnati
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB31 | RB31 | RB32 |
RB30 |
It’s difficult living in the shadow of Derrick Henry, but in Week 4 Justice Hill showed the valuable role that could be emerging for him in the Ravens’ offense this season. Hill’s 78 receiving yards and six receptions were career-highs in a single game, and maybe more surprisingly, led the team in all receiving categories. The Baltimore offense has a clear identity established and has shown that they don’t really need to get the ball to their WRs or TEs to be effective and win games, which could be great for fantasy purposes going forward for Hill.
Predicting a repeat performance for Hill could be difficult going forward, but there seems to be an opportunity this week against the Bengals. Baltimore’s matchup in Cincinnati features the highest expected point total of the week, so there should be room for Hill to create for fantasy managers. In their last three games, the Bengals have given up two passing TDs each week, and 40% of the Ravens’ passing TDs have gone to the RB position this season. It may feel like chasing a big week, but fantasy managers who are in a pinch due to injury or the first bye week hitting could get a decent flex option out of Hill this week.
Kurt would play Hill over: RB28 – Roschon Johnson vs Carolina.
Wide Receivers
Josh Downs (IND) at Jacksonville
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR43 | WR44 | WR40 |
WR45 |
The biggest beneficiary of the change at QB in Indianapolis was Josh Downs who turned in a WR9 finish in just his second game played this season. After Anthony Richardson left the game due to injury, Joe Flacco targeted Downs eight times which turned into seven receptions for 71 yards and a TD. Downs provided a great short option for the Colts’ offense in the slot and could continue to be a safety blanket in the passing game, especially if Flacco remains the starter for another week.
If there’s a defense to target in the passing game for fantasy options, the Jaguars have to be near the top of the list. Jacksonville’s defense has allowed the second most passing yards in the league and six of their seven passing TDs in their last two games. For fantasy, the Jaguars defense has given up five top-20 WR finishes this season, including three in just the last two weeks. Even if Downs only stays involved on the 60% of snaps he’s averaged in the last two weeks since his return from injury, he should have plenty of opportunity to be a strong flex option for fantasy managers this week.
Kurt would play Downs over: WR38 – Romeo Doubs at L.A. Rams.
Darnell Mooney (ATL) vs Tampa Bay
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR34 | WR34 | WR35 |
WR33 |
The offseason hype that came with all of the changes made in Atlanta may not have lived up to fantasy managers’ expectations, but it has provided a decent surprise in fantasy value from Darnell Mooney. While Mooney isn’t in the “must start” category for fantasy managers, he’s averaging 96% of snaps for the Falcons’ offense and has been a top-36 WR in two games already this season. Mooney has been great in the intermediate passing game for Kirk Cousins, with 33% of his receptions coming between 10 and 20 yards for 126 yards and a TD.
For Mooney to get back into productive flex range in Week 5, he’ll have a tough taste against a strong Buccaneers defense on Thursday night. Tampa Bay’s defense has given up the fewest passing TDs in the league this season through four weeks but has allowed the fifth most passing completions. For fantasy though, it’s been tough sledding for fantasy WRs against this Tampa Bay defense with only two WRs posting top-24 finishes against them so far this season. There are plenty of reasons fantasy managers might need to work Mooney into their lineups this week, but he’ll be dependent on getting volume in the passing game to be a productive play to start the week.
Kurt would prefer to play: WR36 – Wan’Dale Robinson at Seattle.
Dontayvion Wicks (GB) at L.A. Rams
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR27 | WR29 | WR29 |
WR26 |
The hot waiver wire pickup at the WR position this week, Dontayvion Wicks has a high bar to live up to after his huge Week 4 performance. Wicks saw a career-high 13 targets against the Vikings last week on his way to a WR3 finish. With Christian Watson’s injury possibly keeping him sidelined, fantasy managers who made the FAAB investment in Wicks are hoping to see the offseason hype come to life with him trying to take on the WR2 role in a strong Packers offense. Wicks lined up mainly out wide last week with his highest snap count of the season and saw valuable targets downfield with an average depth of target at 16.5 yards, so there could be fantasy gold continuing to come this week.
There should be plenty of opportunity for Wicks to roll his fantasy success into another week for fantasy managers with a great matchup against the Rams’ defense on tap for Week 5. The L.A. defense has been a gold mine for fantasy success at WR so far this season, allowing the third most passing TDs and pass completions of 20+ yards on the season. When it comes to fantasy production, the Rams have allowed a top-five WR in three of their four games this season, including two WR1 overall finishes on the week. There are plenty of receiving options that the production could go to in Green Bay, but betting on Wicks to be at least a strong WR2 play is a good one for fantasy managers in Week 5.
Kurt would play Wicks over: WR24 – Tee Higgins vs Baltimore.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (WASH) vs Cleveland
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| TE11 | TE11 | TE12 |
TE12 |
It’s kind of gross, but Zach Ertz has actually been a very solid TE option to start the year for fantasy managers. While it may be more of a statement on the TE position as a whole, Ertz is currently the TE11 on the season while just having one top-10 TE finish on a given week. What’s kept Ertz relevant for fantasy managers has been the consistent targets he’s seen coming his way, averaging nearly four receptions per game. It also helps that the Washington offense has been putting together scoring drives at one of the highest rates in the league, which only helps Ertz stay on the field as a safety blanket for rookie QB Jayden Daniels.
Finding a defense to targets for TEs is tough since basically no TE has been consistent this season for fantasy managers, so we’re really scraping to find a “good” matchup. The Browns’ defense has been solid against fantasy TEs to start the season, only allowing more than 10 fantasy points to opposing teams’ TEs once so far this year, and zero TDs to the position. There may be a safe floor with Ertz against Cleveland though. Opposing TEs are averaging four receptions and 40.5 yards per game against them, which is right in line with where Ertz has been so far this year.
Kurt would play Ertz over: TE8 – Pat Freiermuth vs Dallas.
Cole Kmet (CHI) vs Carolina
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| TE9 | TE9 | TE9 |
TE9 |
After a slow start to the year, it feels like Cole Kmet has worked his way into the new Bears offense over the last few weeks. Kmet has seen 14 targets over the last two weeks and has been on the field for nearly 90% of snaps for Chicago. Maybe more importantly, Kmet has 100% of the Bears’ receiving yards that went to TEs over that same stretch, so he’s clearly the main option at the position getting receiving work. On the season, Kmet is fourth among TEs in receiving yards and his increase in work in the Bears’ offense should keep him in that range for the coming weeks ahead.
While things have been better for the Panthers on the field over the last couple of weeks, the Carolina defense is still one to target with fantasy players on a weekly basis. The Panthers’ defense is allowing an average of four receptions and nearly 45 yards to opposing TEs and allowed 21.9 points to the position back in Week 1. Kmet’s floor from week to week should still be solid enough to not completely destroy a fantasy manager, and the potential for a huge receiving workload is worth keeping him in lineups again this week, pending his health not keeping him out of the game.
Kurt would play Kmet over: TE10 – David Njoku at Washington.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/xeJwPBu
No comments: