The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out 10 of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Christian McCaffrey’s Ever-Growing Injury Concerns: MATTERS SO MUCH, AND THE SKY IS FALLING!
So much of fantasy football is about discipline, especially through small sample sizes; overreaction can lead to suboptimal decisions, and we overreact if we fail to keep the 10,000-foot view in the picture-in-picture window. When the number one overall draft pick in fantasy ADP misses a week, we might shake that off. Man, I wish I’d known that. When he gets placed on IR a week later, our fingernails will be lucky to survive unscathed. And when an additional report comes out just after, saying he may be out six weeks?
Well, folks, we’ve got ourselves a good old-fashioned panic on our hands.
McCaffrey’s absence has a butterfly effect. Hopefully, most fantasy managers who took McCaffrey found out he was inactive last Monday, went straight to the wire, and scooped up Jordan Mason. If you did that, you’re probably feeling okay. If he was already taken, or worse, you were beaten to the signing, you’re probably in a world of hurt about now. It happens. It’s fantasy. Breathe.
The good news is that the RB position is simultaneously valuable and can realistically be replaced on the fly. Not to the level of McCaffrey in the Shanahan offense – no one will give you that. But focus on survival until McCaffrey hopefully returns, and stack upside at RB on your bench in case he never does. The ants are crawling out of the woodwork to clean your carcass, but don’t let them. Don’t make a suboptimal decision to atone for a tribulation; don’t sell your high-value resources to gain a mid-level RB. Survive another way and visualize getting to the other side of this in the best state possible. That’s still your best bet at a fantasy title.
Stay water, friends. This, too, shall pass.
Klint Kubiak: MATTERS
One of the most incredible stories of 2023 has been the emergence of the New Orleans Saints‘ offense, which has now scored on 76.2% of its drives and 100% of its first-half drives. Through two weeks, the Saints rank first in offensive EPA per play (up from 14th in 2023) and second in offensive success rate (up from 17th in 2023), and Derek Carr leads the NFL in composite EPA + CPOE per play (up from 20th in 2023).
The chief difference is the play-caller, Klint Kubiak. His Shanahan-based system is active with motion and misdirection and leads the league in play-action pass attempts through two weeks (up from 32nd in 2023).
Historically, QB efficiency receives the most significant boost in successful Shanahan systems, hence the apparent upgrade with Carr. But Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed also stand to benefit, as we’ve already seen.
Josh Jacobs’s Huge Workload: DOESN’T MATTER
The Packers’ response to starting Malik Willis was reminiscent of the Titans’ response to it in 2022: avoid throwing. The Packers ran on 79.1% of their plays, and Willis threw just 14 passes (he was more successful this time). With A.J. Dillon out for the year and rookie MarShawn Lloyd active for the first time after an injury forced him out of Week 1, Josh Jacobs received 47 snaps and 32 carries for 151 yards. Derrick Henry was utilized similarly for the Titans in 2022.
One of two things will happen soon, possibly both: Lloyd will ramp up and eat into the workload, or Jordan Love will return. Either (or especially both) would reduce this massive share.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Breakout Game: MATTERS
Many have carried a torch for Jaxon Smith-Njigba since before he was even taken in the first round by the Seahawks a year ago. He was a popular breakout candidate this summer with the expectation that the Seahawks would appear more functional and modern on offense and that he would usurp the aging Tyler Lockett in lineups. Last week, Lockett was Seattle’s best receiver statistically; things looked grim for JSN, who logged 2-19-0 compared to Lockett’s 6-77-0, despite Smith-Njigba earning more snaps and routes.
This week, Smith-Njigba received 16 targets, securing 12-117-0. He led Lockett in snaps and routes run again and was used in two receiver sets over Lockett. The passing offense was generally more functional this week, and Geno Smith has 44 attempts and 327 passing yards. The truth is probably in the middle, but expect JSN to do much better in fantasy this year.
Braelon Allen’s Big Day: DOESN’T MATTER
Braelon Allen was locked behind Breece Hall a week ago, getting one carry and one reception. This week, he blew up for a sudden two-TD performance on nine touches. Meanwhile, Hall has been good but not super-efficient just yet. This may lead many to conclude that Allen, a relatively heralded rookie, will eat into his workload.
The likelihood is strong that Hall will be more efficient than he has been at some point, probably sooner than later (to be clear, he hasn’t been bad, simply unspectacular). Hall has been tremendously efficient in the past, hitting 41.8 FPOE a year ago and 18.6 as a rookie in an injury-shortened year. So far this year, he has had tremendous usage, logging 83 snaps and receiving 48 opportunities through two games. The two will converge soon.
That Allen scored twice is a bit fluky. There’s no question who the preferred back in New York is.
Mike Geskicki’s Huge Stat Line: DOESN’T MATTER
Mike Gesicki had a surprising stat line of 7-91-0 on nine targets against Kansas City Sunday. The effort by the Bengals to utilize their TEs in the passing game on Sunday was palpable; between Gesicki, Drew Sample, and Erick All, the Bengals’ TEs received 16 targets, accounting for 44.4% of Joe Burrow’s targets. Thirsty for TEs in our fantasy leagues, we may see Gesicki as a popular add this week.
I wouldn’t hold my breath that this is often, if ever, repeated. Gesicki was in for 30 snaps, fewer than Sample and All, and ran 21 routes. The emphasis on the TEs seemed an explicit part of the game plan. The Bengals have available targets that will eventually be occupied by the injured Tee Higgins, who is fighting off a hamstring issue, and Tanner Hudson, who was doubtful for Sunday’s game. Hudson was designated as active but took no snaps. Gesicki is fine to roster; don’t expect this to be a thing.
Carolina Benching Bryce Young: MATTERS
Full disclosure: I wrote this bit, and before it could run through editing, Bryce Young had already been benched (for the record, there was a prediction he would be, but I guess I can’t get credit for that). The Panthers’ offense has been broken; they are dead last in the NFL in EPA per play by a wide margin through two games and also last in offensive success rate, offensive EPA per dropback, and offensive passing success rate. They are also second to last in EPA per rush, narrowly missing a most unwanted triple crown of offensive EPA stats.
Of 38 qualified QBs this year, Young is second to last in PFF offensive grade behind only Jalen Hurts, who has only played one game (we would expect Hurts to improve dramatically as the sample size grows) and dead last in PFF passing grade. Last year, he was 40th of 45 QBs with at least 150 dropbacks. His -87.07 FPOE in 2023 was the worst in the league among QBs by nearly twice the value of the runner-up. According to PFF, the pass blocking in Carolina has been fifth best in the league on a team level so far in 2024, so this ineptitude can’t be pinned on them.
The Red Rifle steps in to take over. Dalton started for Carolina in Week 3 a year ago; in that game, the Panthers scored 27 points. Dalton completed 36 passes for 334 yards and accounted for two TDs, throwing no picks. By comparison, in all other Carolina games a year ago, the Panthers completed 20.25 passes per game for 147.94 yards, 0.94 passing TDs, and 0.62 INTs. In Dalton’s start, the Panthers scored 2.25 points per drive, contrary to 1.25 without Dalton. He took three sacks; the Panthers averaged 4.25 sacks without him. It’s been some time, but Dalton has a top-five fantasy QB season under his belt with Cincinnati.
It was a different coaching staff, but the run-to-pass rate was basically inverted. The Panthers threw the ball far more, rushing the ball almost exactly twice as much without Dalton as with him; this translated to roughly 63 more yards per game on the ground. This is a small sample, and it is hard to imagine competency in the passing game will make the running game worse. This is probably a good thing all around for Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, Chuba Hubbard, and eventually Jonathon Brooks.
Zack Moss Bodying Chase Brown: PROBABLY MATTERS, BUT THE DOOR IS STILL OPEN FOR A CHANGE
I admit I was higher on Chase Brown than Zack Moss entering the season, but I’m growing less confident. Moss outsnapped Brown 33-17 in Week 1, and the Bengals doubled down with a 51-13 disparity in Week 2. As I mentioned with Gesicki above, something was awry with the Cincinnati approach this week, leading me to conclude they were possibly afraid of the Kansas City pass rush. Moss has a better reputation for pass protection than Chase, so that may be why, although that is all very speculative.
What is the reason the door is still cracked open for a change? Moss hasn’t been as good as Chase with the ball so far, and the Bengals should be desperate for new ideas after an 0-2 start.
Quentin Johnston Leading the Team in Snaps, Targets, and Receptions: PROBABLY WON’T MATTER
So far, through two weeks, the leader in snaps among L.A. Chargers WRs: Quentin Johnston. The leader in routes: Quentin Johnston. Targets: a tie between Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. Receptions, yards, and TDs: you got it. Quentin Johnston.
We have to adjust. Justin Herbert is one of the better QBs in the league. I realize the Chargers are not expected to be a pass-heavy offense, but a number one WR for a good QB on a functional offense is out there. If he’s available in your league, see that he’s not after this week. I wouldn’t expect him to hit high-high upside, but Johnston may be a weekly starter for many teams.
The Miami Speed Machine Going Through Changes: MATTERS, BUT ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE MADE
In the waning moments of a home-field drubbing at the hands of division rivals, Miami HC Mike McDaniel looked deep in thought. What was he thinking about? Was it a concern for his QB, Tua Tagovailoa, who had just sustained his fourth concussion in three seasons? Perhaps he wondered if he had gone too far with the gimmick of using misdirection and trickery to scheme smaller, faster players open, and he regretted having no answers for a game script that demanded more substance. Regardless, it seemed like quite a mood.
Last season, the Dolphins’ offense looked like evolution. This year, it seems like a thing the league might have caught up to. The Dolphins continue to scheme everything toward Tyreek Hill, the NFL leader in first-read targets a year ago, all but ignoring Jaylen Waddle. Thursday, it felt like the team could have used a little more Waddle; Hill was ineffective, and Waddle was, and yet, Waddle was still grossly out-targeted. The middle of the field was open to the Dolphins’ incredible WR2, and the team elected not to utilize him. McDaniel just doesn’t seem to think about gaining yardage in smaller bites.
De’Von Achane was a bell cow Thursday; that is meaningful, especially if it continues after Mostert eventually returns. He could be a league winner.
And still, most of us remained focused on Tagovailoa – about him as a person and his life after football, and about what it all means for the team that depends on him. For now, it appears Skylar Thompson will be the Dolphins’ QB. There was optimism he was meaningfully better than he was the last time we saw him. That remains to be seen. Until we see otherwise, expect a significant downgrade to our Dolphins WRs. If Tagovailoa returns, some adjustments on McDaniel’s part should be considered anyway; more to come.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/SDZe0A3
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