Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry 59%; Justice Hill 41%
I wanted to start with the Ravens-Cowboys game because we saw two very different philosophies on display. On the Baltimore side of the ball, we saw the run-heavy extreme (the Ravens ran the ball 45 times and threw only 15 times). On the Dallas side, the Cowboys only ran the ball 14 times (plus two scrambles) while throwing the ball 51 times. Both teams moved the ball effectively, but Baltimore did pull out the win. So take all that for what it’s worth.
The Baltimore run focus was notable, particularly because Lamar threw it 41 times in Week 1 and 34 times in Week 2. Game script played some part of it, but Derrick Henry was established quite early on, with 12 carries before halftime; he was clearly part of the game plan. It was nice to see his rushing usage increase so dramatically, especially without a major jump in snaps. That shows that Henry doesn’t need to play big snaps, which he hasn’t all season, to still be a major part of the Ravens’ offensive plan.
Conclusion: Derrick Henry remains a top-10 RB despite much lower snap counts than his historical average.
Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle 46%; Ezekiel Elliott 19%; Deuce Vaughn 6%
As I said above, the Cowboys don’t run the ball to win. They barely run the ball at all.
In Week 1’s version of this article, I said there was a path for Rico Dowdle to take over this backfield, but the team, as a whole, has trouble running the ball. Dowdle’s snap percentage increased for the second straight week, but the team is getting less effective at running the ball (43 total rushing yards among running backs). So, while it’s nice to see Dowdle get a bigger piece of the pie, the pie remains very small to begin with.
Conclusion: No Cowboys running back can be started, which will probably be true for the whole season.
New York Jets
Allen Lazard 84%; Mike Williams 45%
Aaron Rodgers has a history of favoring “his guys.” Just think about how long Rodgers extended Randall Cobb’s career.
Lazard is playing decently. He’s the clear WR2 on the Jets, and he keeps scoring touchdowns.
Now, it should be said that Mike Williams saw more targets than Lazard on far fewer snaps, so perhaps talent will eventually prevail, but this is Aaron Rodgers we are talking about. If the man can deny basic science, he can certainly deny Mike Williams’s talent advantage over his buddy, Allen Lazard.
You could argue that Williams is being brought back slowly due to his injury, but he actually played fewer snaps this week than Week 2. I would expect a steady increase in playing time for Williams if the “coming back from injury” narrative were true. The point is that the Jets have a competent offense, maybe even a pretty good one. That means Lazard is approaching the playable range and definitely in the “shouldn’t be on waivers” range.
Conclusion: Pick up Allen Lazard.
Kansas City Chiefs
Carson Steele 62%; Samaje Perine 38%
Kansas City opted to use a committee to replace Isiah Pacheco, but Carson Steele was the clear leader of that committee. Perine saw an uptick in his snaps (38% in Week 3 from 14% in Week 2), but his role was largely the same. Steele handled 63% of the running back carries to go with his 62% snaps. Perine only saw six carries to Steele’s 17, and each saw a few targets. Kareem Hunt was not active for the game, and Keaontay Ingram did not affect Carson Steele.
Steele looked pretty effective. He’s not quite as dynamic as Pacheco, but he was solid. He didn’t score, but he had some green zone carries, so the TDs will come.
Given this strong performance, I don’t think Hunt is a real threat to Steele’s usage; it feels like Hunt was a depth signing. If you picked up Steele, it looks like a good bet. Get him in your lineup.
Conclusion: Carson Steele is a solid top-24 back.
Indianapolis Colts
Josh Downs 57%; Adonai Mitchell 12%
Josh Downs returned from injury in Week 3 and was allotted a decent number of snaps. Downs’ playing time came at the expense of rookie Adonai Mitchell, who saw a season-low number of snaps. Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce both played more or less their normal snap counts.
Downs is an exciting player who plays on an unexciting offense. Right now, the only Colt who is reliably playable is Jonathan Taylor. Downs saw five targets, which was second on the team, but he only caught three of those targets for 23 yards, which more or less parallels Anthony Richardson’s completion percentage.
It’s hard to start any receiver on the Colts when Anthony Richardson only completes 10 passes a game. Richardson continues to complete about 50% of his passes for very little yardage. He just looks off. I saw at least five awful throws in this game. He floats it when he should throw it hard, he throws it hard when he should float it. Outside of that amazing deep shot to Alec Pierce in Week 1, Richardson has looked pretty darn bad. Downs’ usage is notable, but not actionable.
Conclusion: No Colts pass catchers can be relied upon.
Minnesota Vikings
Jalen Nailor 86%
If you believe in NBA Jam rules, then Sam Darnold is on fire, and so is Jalen Nailor, who scored for the third week in a row. The Vikings’ offense appears to be legit; they have beaten on the San Francisco 49ers and now the Houston Texans, who looked to be a solid defense.
Nailor is someone who needs to be rostered. He is scoring frequently and seeing a decent target share. His role in the offense is locked in as well as the WR2. He rarely leaves the field and is almost playing as much as Justin Jefferson.
Nailor’s ceiling is limited by Jefferson, simply because Jefferson demands the ball so often. Still, this offense seems to be humming under a good coach and a QB who looks revived. That means Nailor should not be on waiver wires anymore.
Conclusion: Pick up Nailor if you need depth at WR.
Houston Texans
Cam Akers 43%; Dare Ogunbowale 42%
Without Dameon Pierce and Joe Mixon, Cam Akers was not the workhorse running back many expected. Instead, he split time evenly with Dare Ogunbowale. Ogunbowale did not receive any carries, and Akers dominated that statistic (81% of the carries went to Akers). Still, he received only nine carries…
The game was out of hand almost immediately – it was 14-0 before the end of the first quarter. The negative game script rendered Akers’ usage unnecessary, and the Texans went back to their trusted pass blocker in Ogunbowale – a trend we saw last year with Devin Singletary.
The Texans are a good team, and this result was shocking. I don’t think this type of day will happen too often to the Texans, but Mixon might be back as soon as Week 4, so Akers will probably return to nothing more than a low-ceiling insurance policy again.
Conclusion: Akers is not a workhorse RB backup.
San Francisco 49ers
Jauan Jennings 85%
Jauan Jennings took over for the injured Deebo Samuel and played a similar role. He caught a TON of passes over the middle and had three touchdowns. He even displayed some contested catch abilities to go with his down-the-field, over-the-middle, intermediate-to-deep routes. He played incredibly.
This is your top waiver pickup, if he’s available. He’s worth a pretty big FAAB dump to plug and play for the next couple of weeks.
Conclusion: Jennings looks fantastic and is a must-add.
Los Angeles Rams
Demarcus Robinson 93%; Tutu Atwell 74%; Tyler Johnson 50%; Jordan Whittington 38%
There is no real replacement for Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and the Rams proved that by using a big committee of four WRs and two TEs to replace them. Stafford spread the ball around, as no WR or TE saw more than five targets.
Still, watching the game, I thought Tutu Atwell passed the eye test best. He led the team in targets, and one of his targets that didn’t count was a deep pass that resulted in a pass interference penalty. He clearly led the team in air yards.
Demarcus Robinson did not impress me, nor did Tyler Johnson.
Tutu is worth a cheap bid. He seems to be the deep threat and the best separator. Assuming Kyren doesn’t score every touchdown again next week, Tutu seems like the most likely of the bunch to satisfy.
Conclusion: Tutu looked pretty good on the field and could be a sneaky add.
Denver Broncos
Humphrey appears to have surpassed all other Broncos WRs for the WR2 role with Courtland Sutton. Moreover, Bo Nix played pretty well this week against a respectable Tampa defense (that said, Tampa’s best player, Vita Vea missed the game). If Nix can continue to play solid, throw a few touchdowns, and scramble, he’s an interesting player to watch.
Humphrey rewarded the Broncos for elevating him, as he saw eight targets, six catches, and 37 yards. The fantasy output wasn’t amazing, but he’s a name to know if Nix is going to be a competent QB.
Conclusion: Wait a week to see if Bo Nix can continue his upward trend, then maybe Humphrey is worth considering picking up.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/Rti39Kr
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