Welcome back to another article highlighting team performance trends via expected points added (EPA). Here, we will look at teams’ rolling EPA averages for both the offensive and defensive side of the ball heading into Week 3.
Offensive Takeaways
The Saints, Cardinals, Bills, and Buccaneers lead the league in EPA/play offensively through two weeks. They play the Eagles, Lions, and Broncos this week, respectively, so it’ll be in your best interests to continue starting your Saints players, as they face off against a Philly team that is posting a -0.11 EPA/play on defense.
The Patriots’ offensive EPA of 0.05 per play may come as a surprise — if you haven’t been starting Rhamondre Stevenson, do it! Hunter Henry has also looked like a strong option in this offense.
The Titans, Bears, Broncos, and Browns have all posted abysmal EPA/play numbers through two weeks. Definitely approach your fantasy players on these teams with caution as Will Levis, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Deshaun Watson all look to catch their footing.
Are the Bengals in trouble? After starting 0-2, the offense has looked mediocre at best, putting up 0.01 EPA/play. Blame it on their offseason troubles, Burrow’s injuries, or whatever you like, it certainly is looking like the time to bench your Cincy players before they prove themselves.
Last, but not least, the Ravens and the Colts, both dual-threat offenses, have struggled thus far offensively. Posting a -0.01 EPA/play, they haven’t been able to turn the corner and lean into both sides of the offensive attack. Look for improvements in these teams, as they are close, but slow ones.
When will the Chiefs pick it up? Through two weeks, Kelce has been a non-factor, and now with Pacheco hurt, there are many questions being asked about this backfield. Proceed with caution with your KC players.
Defensive Takeaways
How could I not mention the New Orleans Saints? They’re playing ballistic on both sides of the ball and seemed to prove they were legit against the Cowboys last week. Can they continue their successes against Philadelphia this week at home?
With the Lions and Cardinals both shooting below zero for defensive EPA/play, we are looking for this game to be a shootout. Start your Cardinals and Lions and avoid their defenses.
Minnesota’s defense has looked impeccable, raising a 0.18 EPA/play. They face off against the high-performing Texans in Week 3, at home. While neither offense is showing very impressive numbers, this one will be an interesting watch and could go either way (think boom/bust for players).
Washington and LAR are the two worst-performing defenses in the league — and they are facing off against the Bengals and the 49ers this week, respectively. As both teams are looking for a bounce back, it is all-starts-to-go for the Niners and Cats.
The Giants, Panthers, and Eagles are also teams to note who have recently underperformed on defense. Look for the Browns, Raiders, and Saints to have strong offensive weeks, respectively — two of which certainly need a strong performance for team momentum.
That’s all for this article, and as always, feel free to reach out on Twitter if you have any questions! Remember to follow the EPA trends, they don’t lie!
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/sBavRKm
No comments: