NFL Pace of Play & DFS Stacks for Week 2 (Fantasy Football)

Let’s learn from our mistakes and move on to Week 2!

Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.

Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, defensive coverages, and stacks to consider for tournaments.

Game Pace Score

A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

• 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
• 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
• 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
• 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
• 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

For Week 2, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Week 1 offensive plays, and factor that for a final GPS score. It is such a small sample size to work with. I encourage you to read Sam DiSorbo’s NFL Team Performance Trends for a deeper look.

If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to rbsdm.com or  nflelo, one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions

Have we seen this movie before? The Buccaneers and Lions played last year in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs and after firing off 84 combined pass attempts, there is reason to be all-in on this game this week. Baker Mayfield balled out last week ranking #1 in Passer Rating and EPA per dropback among all QBs. He completed 3 of 4 passes targeting “vertical routes” for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns. Luckily, the Lions routinely gave up big plays last year ranking dead last in explosive pass rate allowed. It seems like we should just copy and paste Baker double stacks? Well, I wanted to go a bit further detailing what a game environment looks like where Baker actually sees a legit pass rush…

Want to read the rest of this article?

Get the Ultimate DFS Pass from The Fantasy Footballers for instant access. Expert advice, weekly picks, premium reports, trusted & award-winning weekly resources.

Get the Ultimate DFS Pass

Already have the DFS Pass? Login to access

from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/WwLdMXy