In what experts call the most educational episode of the year, the Ballers bring us relevant touch points to remember for 2026. After 12 years, staying water is as important a strategy as ever. Things we learned five years ago may not be relevant, and every postseason is a time to recalibrate on how to attack next year.
We highly recommend checking this one out, as the Ballers paint a better picture of these overarching ideas than these points alone (and with stronger context).
10. Draft like a GM, Not a Fan
This isn’t Madden. We can’t turn injuries off.
One of the hardest mental shifts for managers is accepting that injuries are not bad luck. They are part of our game. Roughly 98% of players will appear on an injury report at some point during the year. It is a violent, high-attrition sport, and fantasy outcomes heavily influence which teams/managers do well. Last year, the final four NFC teams combined for 25 players on injured reserve. Arizona alone had 22 players on IR and saw 40 players miss a total of 318 games. Not accounting for this is irresponsible.
The same dynamic happens in drafts. The top 10 picks were fortunate from an injury perspective: on average, three of the top 10 will miss 4+ games. But after 1.10, it was a nightmare. Five players missed 4+ games between picks 1.11 – 2.12. Even worse, nine players missed five or more games between picks 3.05 – 4.06. The lesson? Injuries are inevitable, and roster construction/drafting needs to reflect that.
Brand that into your mind and draft like a GM, not a fan. Real teams do not build rosters assuming perfect health. So why are you? Avoid filling your bench with only upside lottery tickets while ignoring playable depth. Plan for players to miss games. Remember, YOUR players will get hurt.
9. Be Willing to Stand Your Ground on Rookie Takes
Stand your ground on rookie takes. The first month of the season carries heavy weight for players, either confirming our biases or making us make up our minds too quickly about that player or situation. With rookies, that early window can be dangerous because their roles frequently take time to develop. It’s not uncommon for coaches to ease the young ones in.
TreVeyon Henderson was a perfect example. Over the first five weeks, he never scored more than 12 points and sat outside the top 38. The temptation to drop him was obvious (friendly reminder, he was a My Guy). But this is common. Of the 52 RBs drafted in Rounds 2 or 3 over the last decade:
- 46% of them failed to hit a 12+ FPPG week with their first five games (including stars like Henry, Mixon, Javonte, Miles Sanders, and James Cook).
- 67% of them had only one or fewer.
From Week 9 on, Henderson was the RB9, averaging 16.7 FPPG. Tetairoa McMillan saw a similar pattern. Started slow, but the targets were there (25% in the first five games). He went on to finish among the six rookies over the last decade with a 26% target share. If your evaluation process points to talent and eventual opportunity, stick with it through the early portion of the season.
8. Is the Famous Sophomore Leap for WRs Actually Dead?
Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
For years, the sophomore WR leap felt like a QB with rushing upside in fantasy: a cheat code. Jason highlighted it back in 2021 with a monster article showing sophomore WRs drafted in rounds four through eight consistently smashed expectations. Every single one of them beat their rookie FPPG. 85% of them exceeded their ADP expectations.
Since then, that trend started to crack. The 2021 class still delivered with five of six improving in year two, but the success rate has fallen each season since.
- 2022: Only three of six improved
- 2023: Two of five
- 2024: Zero of five
Are rookie WRs coming in more pro-ready? Is the leap happening earlier than in the past? The market is adjusting, as sophomore WRs are trading at aggressive prices in early Best Ball drafts. Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, and Luther Burden are coming off the board inside the first five rounds. The next sophomore WR (Matthew Golden) doesn’t go until Round 11. Act accordingly.
7. Bad Teams Ruin Good Players
One exercise to sharpen draft decisions is to remove a player’s name and focus only on his situation. Ask yourself, would you draft a player in the first two rounds if the offense featured constant QB turnovers, an offensive coordinator you don’t trust, and one of the worst red zone environments in football? Doubtful.
Yet, we’ve been doing it with Garrett Wilson for years. The Jets ranked dead last in red zone plays over a three-year span and spent the majority of 2025 trailing (93% of the time, oof). They only had 73 plays all season with a lead.
Now piggyback that to this year’s Raiders. They entered 2025 with a castaway QB, a new HC born before the transistor radio (get bodied, Pete Carroll), and an OC removed from the NFL for over a decade. Even with these signals, Ashton Jeanty went 1.10, and Brock Bowers went 2.10. They were a bit better than NYJ, but still trailed on 84% of their offensive snaps, carried an abysmal -191 point differential, and only led on 49 of Jeanty’s rushing attempts.
The lesson is simple. Always weigh team environment against draft cost because bad teams ruin good players. We won’t even go into Justin Jefferson + JJ McCarthy…
6. Drafting 2 QBs is OK
Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
In single QB leagues, there’s a certain stigma to only take one QB, leaving bench spots open for hopeful breakouts at RB/WR or TE. But viable starters go in the late rounds, and drafting two increases your odds of finding a difference maker at the position instead of relying on a single outcome.
The opportunity cost is minimal. You could have taken Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, and even Drake Maye in the ninth round or later. Pairing two increases breakout chances.
Note: this does not apply to teams that draft stud QBs in the early rounds like Josh Allen.
5. TE Dead Zone is Deader Than Ever
The TE landscape continued to flatten last season, making the TE dead zone (Rounds ~5 to ~10) even more dangerous. The difference between the TE2 and the TE12 was only 1.3 FPPG, the tightest spread in six years. Several top TEs were waiver wire pickups, including:
- Harold Fannin Jr.
- Colston Loveland
- Kyle Pitts (finished the season as TE2)
- Dallas Goedert
The TEs in the dead zone came with an extreme opportunity cost. These players didn’t help you more or less than anyone else you could have drafted five rounds later or got from the waiver wire.
- Sam Laporta TE3 – drafted over Jameson Williams and D’Andre Swift
- Travis Kelce TE5 – over Chris Olave and Jaylen Warren
- Mark Andrews TE7 – over Travis Etienne and Emeka Egbuka
- Evan Engram TE8 – over Quinshon Judkins and Javonte Williams
- David Njoku TE10 – over Cam Skattebo and Michael Pittman
The takeaway: Pay up for elite difference makers like Trey McBride or wait until later rounds and play the waiver wire.
4. A Good Waiver Pickup is a Good Waiver Pickup
Scott Galvin-Imagn Images
One of the easiest mistakes is evaluating a player on the waiver wire only through the lens of roster need. Managers often pass on pickups, thinking, “I already have a TE” or “I’m set at QB.” But this game is not static. Players get hurt. Roles change. Player values will go up and down. A good waiver pickup is a good waiver pickup, even if your team doesn’t need that position.
Looking back at several in-season waiver moments highlights this idea. Harold Fannin Jr. was available early in the year before finishing as the TE5. Drake Maye appeared before turning into the QB2 down the stretch. Later in the year, Parker Washington, Alec Pierce, and Kenneth Gainwell were widely available before becoming consistent contributors.
Remove positional bias and focus on potential value. Even if the player doesn’t hit your lineup, you end up with a trade asset or critical depth piece.
3. Targets STILL Have to be Earned
If players don’t get targets in college, be careful assuming they will get them in the NFL. Don’t fall into the trap of assuming targets will simply appear for young WRs in good situations. First round WR? That’s not a guarantee. Don’t create a narrative that doesn’t exist. Opportunity is appealing on paper, especially with strong draft capital or stout offense. But targets must be earned.
Many of the trap WRs never commanded targets in college. So why would they be able to do it at the next level – where it’s harder? Think of Keon Coleman, Matthew Golden, and Xavier Worthy*. On a per-route basis, their target rates often lagged behind those of receivers drafted later. None of these guys had a higher than 25% targets per route run at the NCAA level.
Shockingly, none of them had targets magically fall into their laps. The “perceived” upside is not there if the targets aren’t, and they are merely TD dependent, 2nd flexes at best.
*All three players combined for five total TDs.
2. Draft Class Projections are Real
Once the NFL season is over, attention turns to the prospects. You will hear the whispers around the league about how strong a class might be at a certain position. Those signals are often accurate once the players hit the field.
The 2024 WR class was legit. Seven first-round WRs were the most in over a decade, and they backed up the hype. They finished third in total targets, receptions, yards, and TDs of any rookie class since 2015.
Now direct your attention to the 2025 RB class. Eight players were drafted in the first four rounds, and they produced the second most total touches and yards from scrimmage among rookie RB classes over the last decade. That’s with major injuries to Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo, Woody Marks, Bill Croskey-Merritt, and Kyle Monangai.
Recognizing when a draft class is unusually strong at a position can help managers stay ahead of the market and ride the wave of incoming talent. 2026 has a deep WR class, but the RBs look weak. Five WRs rank in the 90th+ percentile in this year’s draft (last year, there were only two).
1. DO IT – NOW
If you want your league to level up, DO IT NOW. The offseason is the perfect window to push changes before everyone locks into draft mode. Whether that means proposing new scoring settings, adding a league median, expanding flex spots, or expanding weekly incentives (highest score), the best leagues evolve because action is taken. Jump into some best ball drafts to start getting an ADP feel so that by the time draft season comes along, you’ll be ready.
Most importantly, if someone in your league is being a turd, flush that thing now. It’s better to have a 10-team league with 10 strong managers than a 12-team league with 10 good managers plus two turds.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/qEYtwRO
Reviewed by Admin
on
March 05, 2026
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