There is a version of Jerry Jeudy that fantasy managers fell in love with in 2024: 90 receptions, 1,229 yards, four TDs, a Pro Bowl selection, and one of the better seasons ever recorded by a WR in Cleveland history. He looked like a genuine WR1, not just by volume but by circumstance, the kind of player who takes every target and turns it into a first down.
However, the most recent version of Jerry Jeudy looks much different: this version dropped nine passes in 2025, posted a 47.2% catch rate on 106 targets, registered a -0.078 EPA per target that ranked him 26th out of 30 qualifying WRs, and somehow managed a career-worst fantasy output despite seeing more than a target every six snaps. Jeudy led the league in drops and averaged 6.4 PPR points per game on what was supposed to be a huge year for him.
In Jeudy’s defense, the 2025 Cleveland Browns passing game was one of the most dysfunctional in the modern NFL. The team cycled through Joe Flacco (Weeks 1–2), Dillon Gabriel (Weeks 3–11), and Shedeur Sanders (Weeks 12–17) – three QBs with wildly different arm talents, command of the offense, and willingness to target Jeudy as their primary option. However, rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. wasn’t impacted by this QB carousel like Jeudy was. They had nearly the same number of targets, yet Fannin’s output was at a higher tier. Looking at the Brown’s receiving room breakdown below, it is clear that the TE was the alpha on the team. He was the most efficient, with a 0.14 EPA/target, and had the most receiving yards and TDs by a wide margin.
The chart below plots Jeudy among 75 qualifying WRs for EPA/target – he falls in the bottom 15 in the league at -0.078. That number means that, on average, each target thrown to Jeudy in 2025 cost Cleveland approximately 0.078 expected points. Harold Fannin‘s +0.142 EPA per target generated a full 22 expected points of difference over the course of a season.
Luckily, EPA is QB-dependent, and three QBs with below-average to terrible deep-ball accuracy will depress any receiver’s EPA. The separation Jeudy created on his routes was likely not the problem. The QB execution, paired with his drops, combined to turn positive anticipated plays into negative EPA outcomes repeatedly.
But even accounting for QB quality, Jeudy’s position at 26th out of 30 isn’t purely a system artifact. Players like Cedric Tillman (+0.038) and David Njoku (+0.051) operated in the same dysfunctional offense and generated positive EPA.
Looking at Jeudy’s career arc, his production last season looks like rock bottom. The silver lining is his yards per route run, or YPRR. It has stayed nearly constant for his past three seasons, showing a sign of his own consistency and efficiency. It is possible with improvements at the QB position that Jeudy could bounce back.
Contract Review
Jeudy is entering the third year of his contract, which has an average value of $17M. His dead cap this season sits at $16.7M, and drops to $7M next season, and $3.5M the year before. If the Browns were to move on from Jeudy, they would wait until next season at the very least. While a trade shouldn’t be ruled out, it’s unlikely Cleveland could get much for him considering his performance last season. Because of his anomalous performance last season and his underlying efficiency, Jeudy looks like a buy-low candidate, especially in dynasty leagues. His massive contract isn’t going anywhere, so the Cleveland WR1 will have a shot at redemption.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/bqhXGRO
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