There are some debates out there in the college football world about who is the real WRU, but if you look at recent seasons, perhaps the debate is settled. Ohio State’s WR factory has been churning out top-tier Round 1 NFL Draft prospects for the last five years. In 2022, we had Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. In 2023, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In 2024, Marvin Harrison Jr. And, in 2025, we had Emeka Egbuka. Now, entering the 2026 NFL Draft, Carnell Tate is a consensus top-15 player in the class, which means he’ll be the sixth Ohio State Buckeye WR to go in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2022. And next year, we will get Jeremiah Smith! The list goes on and on…
How does Tate stack up to Buckeyes before him, and how does he compare to first-round NFL WRs in recent years? For this article, we will dive into his college production profile and look at what’s on tape to see if we can forecast what type of player the NFL is getting in OSU’s Carnell Tate.
Editor’s Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2026 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2026.
College Production Profile
Before we dive into the raw numbers here, I want to take a minute to highlight Tate’s journey. Coming out of high school, Tate was a five-star recruit, and he was the #3 WR recruit in the country out of IMG Academy after growing up in Chicago. Obviously, you don’t go to Ohio State to play WR unless you’re an uber-talented kid coming out of high school. When you get to Ohio State, there’s a bit of a trend for most, given the state of the depth chart. With so much NFL talent next to you, sometimes you just have to wait your turn. For context, those 2023 and rosters had Marv and Egbuka, and in 2024, Jeremiah Smith stepped on campus as a top-10 WR in the country.
Moreover, Tate faced some serious adversity in his life at a young age. In July of 2023, Tate sadly lost his mother to a shooting/hit-and-run. Think about that…you are 18 years old, going away to school for the first time, and trying to learn to be a college student while also playing for one of the best programs in the country, and then that happens. Tate has openly talked about his relationship with his mother, and the two were extremely close. I bring that up to paint the human element of this game we play and to provide some context on what he was working through as a freshman, learning the ropes of the college game.
With all of that context added, it is not super surprising that Tate wasn’t putting up elite production in his first season in Columbus. However, in 2024 and more importantly, 2025, Tate developed into a key piece of Ohio State’s offense. During his final year in school, Tate averaged almost 80 receiving yards per game and peaked in efficiency, averaging a career-high 3.02 yards per route run while running across from Jeremiah Smith. He led all FBS receivers in passer rating when targeted, showcasing just how valuable he was for Ryan Day’s team. During his junior campaign, he finally started to approach some of those metrics we look for in the dynasty scouting process – the yardage share, the Dominator Rating, etc.
Unfortunately, we do need to recognize the reality here. Tate’s analytical profile compared to future NFL stars is certainly not ideal and is lacking in some areas. He never really dominated the offense. He never really dominated the target share and reception shares. Is this an Ohio State problem? Most definitely. After all, we just highlighted how many stars come from that school! The target competition for him compared to someone like a Jordyn Tyson is not even in the same conversation. That said, the numbers are the numbers, and Tate’s analytical numbers are not that of a consensus top-10 WR from previous years. Does that mean he will be bad for fantasy? No, not necessarily, but it is something that’s worth considering when we forecast to the NFL.
Measurables
At 6’2″ and 192 pounds, Tate brings a more slender build to the NFL. However, considering he lined up on the perimeter on 87% of his career snaps (PFF) and wins with fluidity and suddenness in his route tree (more on that below), I don’t necessarily see this as a red flag. He’s not really a guy who is going to post you up in the red zone like a Courtland Sutton or bully DBs on slants like A.J. Brown, anyway. We’ve seen other slender NFL WRs win and be plenty productive in the NFL – guys like DeVonta Smith, Jameson Williams, Justin Jefferson, and George Pickens come to mind as WRs who aren’t necessarily rocked up but can still beat you with technique and body control. I’m not saying Tate is a comp for those types of players, but from a build perspective, don’t expect Tate to be out there bodying dudes at the next level. In fact, per PFF, he only broke five tackles during his final season. The bully ball, YAC game is not one that fits Tate.
The other thing to touch on here is the 40-time with Carnell Tate. Some folks out there may have been underwhelmed with his 4.53 in the 40-yard dash at Indianapolis, but it is important to remember that athletic testing has virtually zero correlation to future NFL success at the WR position, especially for fantasy. There are plenty of reps on Tate’s tape where he’s winning down the field, so I view him as fast enough. Is he going to run away from defenders after the catch for 40+ yard gains in the NFL? Probably not…but let’s be real! How often do those plays happen, anyway? For me, I’m putting zero stock in Tate’s 40 time, even though I think some NFL scouts and fantasy players were hoping to see a time in the mid-4.4s.
What’s On Tape
1. Carnell Tate is an elite downfield weapon with great hands and excellent body control.
If you turn on the All-22 and just Google ‘Carnell Tate highlights,’ the majority of catches you will see are the ones that show up on SportsCenter – the big plays, the contested grabs, the acrobatic body control. Now, don’t get me wrong, there’s much more to Tate’s game in my opinion, but his calling card is pretty obvious, and it’s a skillset NFL teams value. Tate is a true perimeter WR who wins down the football field, adding an explosive element to any offense. In his career, Tate had a contested catch rate of almost 70%, a fantastic mark. If Tate’s one-on-one, it’s not actually a 50/50 ball.
I love this rep from Tate – a nice subtle double move, catching the safety flat-footed, then he uses his speed to blow by the defender and create separation down the field. For most NFL QBs with great arm strength, this is an easy grab, but on this particular play, the ball was slightly underthrown. Tate does an excellent job of adjusting and winning at the catch point with the safety barreling down on him.
2. Strong hands at the catch point and on the sidelines.
I usually poke fun at the ‘Hand Size szn’ component of the NFL Combine, but Tate’s hands measured in at 10.25″, putting him in the 94th percentile. That absolutely shows up on tape, considering he had just five total drops on 161 career targets per PFF and hauled in contested grabs like it was his job! It’s not just the contested grabs, though, that grab your attention; Tate was often getting two feet in bounds near the sideline, displaying more of that body control and those strong hands when working in tight quarters.
3. While Tate is billed as a vertical threat, he’s also really good on routes working back to the QB.
Tate hauled in five TD grabs of 40+ yards in 2025, and he averaged a silly 17.2 yards per catch during his final year on campus. Knowing that, you might think Tate is just a deep ball guy or a nine route specialist, but that is far from the case. While that is his special sauce, he is also pretty good in the intermediate area of the field, particularly on routes working back to the football. Per SumerSports, 24.5% of Tate’s routes run last season were curl routes, and 13.2% were out routes. When you watch him play, you certainly see that. Defenses have to respect his big play ability, so he often sets up defenders by aggressively attacking off the line, then hitting the brakes, making himself available for easy completions for his QB.
In this rep, Tate is bracketed by three defenders in a zone look. He starts to decelerate at about the 26, 25-ish-yard line, and rather than just sitting down in zone coverage, he works all the way back to the 30-yard line to ensure he’s the first one to the football. From there, he turns it upfield and picks up a first down. Some younger wideouts tend to just sit down in zone rather than working back to the football. It is one example of Tate’s high football IQ.
Fantasy Outlook
All in all, when reviewing Tate’s collegiate production profile and his tape, in my opinion, we are looking at a very good, but perhaps not elite, fantasy asset in Carnell Tate. Looking at a ton of mock drafts around the industry, it’s difficult to find one with Tate projected outside of the top-15, let alone top-10. If he does get that draft capital, it’s an excellent signal for future fantasy success, especially when we consider that Tate is an early declare player from one of the best programs in the country.
The reason I question the overall PPR ceiling for a guy like Tate is the lack of elite target-earning potential. In his career, Tate saw a target on roughly 19.5% of his routes. In his final season, that number did jump to 22.8%, which is pretty good, but nowhere close to the elite numbers we see from other alpha WR1s. As I’ve mentioned on repeat throughout this article, his teammate competition needs to be heavily considered, but simply put, it’s really hard to become a “better” target earner in the NFL. The target competition on his roster isn’t getting any easier, and the NFL DBs are only going to be better. So, from that perspective, I do question if Tate can become a true WR1 in the league, and perhaps more importantly for us, a WR1 in fantasy.
If you compare Tate’s analytical profile to that of fellow “good, not great” target earners in college, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Assuming Tate does go inside the top-10 of the NFL Draft in April, as most mocks suggest, that would be the lowest TPRR over the last decade for a WR selected with that draft capital.
In my opinion, Tate profiles as more of a boom/bust WR2 for the game we play, but he is a player who could really spike in efficiency if he lands in the right situation with the right QB, thanks to his yards per target and yards per reception upside. To sum it up, Tate lacks the production profile we are looking for in future fantasy stars, but some of that can be explained by his target competition in college. On tape, he’s a fluid mover who knows how to use leverage to win, and he is an absolute dog at the catch point, but by no means is he a perfect prospect as a potential top-10 selection. Fantasy gamers are going to be faced with perhaps a tricky decision at the top of the board in rookie drafts – go with the elite draft capital, OSU pedigree, and tape? Or, trust the production with guys like Makai Lemon and Jordyn Tyson?
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/RY0Qn2q
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