DFS strategy is different on small playoff slates. It’s important to get unique, but that becomes tricky when you have fewer options to choose from on these smaller slates. Ultimately, we’re looking for the highest ceiling and a few spots to get different, if it makes sense.
FanDuel offers multiple slates for Wild Card Weekend. You can play each day individually, Sunday-Monday, or Saturday-Monday. Saturday and Sunday are the “main” slates, and I will offer my favorite way to approach each position for those days.
Saturday Slate
With just two games, we only have four teams to pick from on Saturday. This will make roster percentages condense higher than usual on the best plays. You will have to use popular players more often than usual in tournaments. The key to taking one down is finding the right team and stacking partners to pair with them, especially if those stacking partners are less popular. I will mostly make cases for individual players, but make sure to use slate context when building lineups.
Quarterbacks
Remember, when it comes to QBs, pricing is bunched relatively tight on FD. It’s also worth noting that while rushing upside typically weighs heavier on FD, none of the four options on Saturday carry a real rushing ceiling. With that in mind, here are my two favorite QBs on Saturday.
Matthew Stafford @ CAR – $8,300
Stafford may be the most rostered QB on Saturday, but remember that on a condensed slate, being rostered 35%, as the optimizer is projecting, is not the same as it would be on a regular-season main slate. He comes with the highest ceiling on Saturday, as the only available QB with multiple four-TD passing games this season. As we’ll talk about later, he is also very stackable in this game, where the Rams are 10.5-point road favorites.
Jordan Love @ CHI – $7,400
I debated Jordan Love vs. Caleb Williams ($7,800) all week. Ultimately, I landed on Love in hopes of the game script going in his favor. Green Bay’s defense is in shambles and allowed the Bears to rush for 192 yards when they last met in Week 16. Beyond gamescript, the matchup is also better for Love, as Chicago ranks 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs over the last three weeks, compared to just 16th for Green Bay.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams @ CAR – $8,000
I probably don’t want to play Williams in the same lineup as Stafford, though an onslaught case could be made. Regardless, Williams is my favorite RB on the slate for any type of tournament. With both Rams’ WRs and Josh Jacobs projecting at the top of their positions, Williams is a way to get away from some of the chalk. While Davante Adams has been a beast around the goal line, there’s a realistic outcome where Williams gets in the end zone multiple times. Even with Blake Corum’s late-season surge, Williams has basically doubled him up in red zone attempts (53-27), red zone TDs (10-5), and 5-zone TDs (8-4).
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Josh Jacobs @ CHI -S7,900
I’m going to keep this short. Jacobs projects to be extremely popular (~81% according to the optimizer). He’s a fine play in cash formats, but I will be leaning away from him in tournaments, especially given the uncertainty surrounding his health. He has not carried the ball more than 12 times in a game since Week 14, which was over a month ago.
Kyle Monangai vs. GB – $5,600
I believe Chicago will want to run the ball as much as possible on the beat-up Green Bay defense Saturday night, and Monangai is the Bears’ RB that I’ll be heavier on. D’Andre Swift may have the advantage in the passing game, but we don’t care about that as much on FD. Conversely, Monangai, despite carrying the ball 53 times fewer than Swift on the season, trails him by just four carries and one TD from inside the five-yard line. He’s also 2-2 on two-point conversions, which shows that Ben Johnson trusts him near the end zone and that it has been working. Rostering him feels even better when you consider that he’s $800 cheaper and projects to be far less rostered.
Chuba Hubbard vs. LAR – $5,200
Hubbard is a dart throw, but he makes sense if you want to pay all the way up for a Stafford-Puka-Adams triple stack. If the Rams get out to a big lead, the Panthers are unlikely to pound the rock with Rico Dowdle. We’ve seen Hubbard house it on passes three times this season, including in the Week 13 matchup against the Rams, which did shoot out.
Wide Receiver
I won’t be able to go over every WR I like here, so just remember to pick WRs that make sense for your build. Stacking is a given for upside, and we care more about TDs and reception volume on FD. With that said, here are my favorites for Saturday.
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Davante Adams @ CAR – $8,000
Don’t get me wrong, I love Puka Nacua ($10,000) also, but I’d be more comfortable paying all the way up for him on DK. If I have to choose one, I’ll take the TD upside that comes with Adams. You have probably seen all the ridiculous end zone target and TD stats for Adams this season, but in case you haven’t, just know that his 27 end zone targets were eight more than Trey McBride and ten more than George Pickens, despite playing in three fewer games. He should also be as healthy as possible, as the Rams didn’t push him back and allowed his hamstring to recover for the last three weeks of the season.
Jalen Coker vs. LAR – $5,700
If I could only play one Panther WR in a vacuum, it would be Tetairoa McMillan ($7,500). However, given the context of the Saturday slate, I prefer the savings that come with Coker. Since Week 13, Coker has one more TD than McMillan (3-2) on two fewer targets (24-26). As the 10.5 point spread suggests, the Panthers may need to air it out to keep up with LA, and Coker makes sense as a bring-back in any kind of Rams’ stack.
Romeo Doubs @ CHI – $5,900
OR
Jayden Reed @ CHI – $5,600
I’m interested in Jordan Love stacks on Saturday, and while Christian Watson ($6,400) is the obvious piece to pair with him, I want to add one of these secondary WRs as well. Doubs has more TD upside and projects to be lower rostered, which are both appealing factors. We have yet to see any upside from Reed during his injury-riddled 2025, but I don’t mind taking a shot on him if I can’t quite find the extra $300 to pay up for Doubs.
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Jahdae Walker vs. GB – $4,000
Who? That’s what I’ve thought both times this UDFA WR wearing number 20 caught a TD in two of the last three weeks. The Bears look to be back to full strength at WR with the return of Rome Odunze, but he may still be on a snap count in his first game back. Walker has scored in pivotal points of big games over the last three weeks and could again in the Wild Card round. He is mostly just a deep dart throw, but one that could hit in large field GPPs.
Tight Ends
Colston Loveland ($5,600) is looking chalky, so just like Josh Jacobs at RB, I’m fine rostering him in cash formats, but will look to pivot away in tournaments. Here are my two favorites for Saturday.
Tommy Tremble vs. LAR – $4,700
Tremble not only found the end zone last week, but he also ran the third-most pass routes for the Panthers. With Ja’Tavion Sanders on IR, it should be a similar story again this week against the Rams. As I’ve mentioned a few times already, Carolina projects to be playing keep up against the Rams, and Tremble is another affordable Panther pass catcher who could see some volume, or better yet, find the end zone.
Cole Kmet vs. GB – $4,500
Kmet is clearly behind Loveland, but he has remained involved in Chicago’s offense. He’s seen at least three targets in six consecutive weeks and even ran more routes than Luther Burden last week. He also held onto a clutch two-point conversion. At just $4,600, he could do enough to pay off his salary, especially if Loveland fails.
DST
You could sell me on any DST on Saturday, so pick one that makes sense for your build, probably as the last piece you select. In a vacuum, the Los Angeles Rams ($4,900) make the most sense, given their matchup with the sub-.500 Panthers. However, they project to be the most popular, despite being the most expensive. The Chicago Bears ($4,200) also make sense. They lead the league with 33 forced turnovers and are at home facing a QB in Jordan Love who hasn’t played a down since the first half of Week 16. Ultimately, choose the DST that makes the most sense for your lineup.
Sunday Slate
The Sunday slate not only has more options, but the games carry higher game totals, not to mention the three highest Game Pace Scores (GPS) of the entire Wild Card Weekend. If you are playing a slate that covers both days, focusing on Sunday’s games not only gives you access to better options, but it also allows you to take advantage of late swaps.
Quarterbacks
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Josh Allen @ JAC – $8,700
You can mess around with other QBs if you want, but I’ll happily pay up for the QB1. Somewhat surprisingly, the optimizer currently projects nearly a three-way tie in roster percentage between Allen, Trevor Lawrence ($7,900), and Jalen Hurts ($8,200), with all of them showing up in around 20% of lineups. The game carries the highest over/under of the weekend (51.5) and Buffalo’s 26.5 team implied points just narrowly trail LA’s 28. There’s always a chance that James Cook steals the TDs, but I like Allen’s odds of scoring most of Buffalo’s points as he attempts to begin the path to his first Super Bowl.
Drake Maye vs. LAC – $8,000
It’s tough not to like the QB who led the NFL in completion percentage (72%), yards/attempt (8.9), and was third in TD passes (31). Maye can also get it done on the ground, as we saw with his two rushing TDs in Week 15. He finished as the overall QB3 on the season, which included four top-four fantasy finishes. Roster that kind of QB as 3.5 point home favorites is a sound DFS strategy. Much like Allen, you can play Maye naked or choose an affordable pass-catcher to pair with him.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley vs. SF – $8,500
The Eagles are the second biggest favorites of Wild Card Weekend at -5.5 points, and it feels like they would love to give the 49ers a large dose of Barkley in frigid Philly. The 49ers have been run on lately, allowing 124 rush yards/game and ranking 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs over the last five weeks. I prefer Barkley over the other expensive options at RB, as Christian McCaffrey ($9,500) isn’t as appealing on FD, especially at his cost, and James Cook ($8,400) is facing a Jacksonville team that allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season.
James Lang-Imagn Images
TreVeyon Henderson vs. LAC – $6,800
OR
Rhamondre Stevenson vs. LAC – $6,300
My heart wants to play TreVeyon Henderson, but my head tells me to lean on Stevenson. The veteran RB was a league-winner down the stretch, and he did it in all the ways that many expected Henderson to: through big plays and pass catching. To be fair, Henderson hasn’t been a slouch, finishing as a top-seven RB himself twice in the last four weeks. Over the last four weeks, since New England’s bye, Henderson has the lead in carries (51-29), while Stevenson has more targets (13-4).
Kimani Vidal @ NE – $5,600
With so many big hitters on the Sunday slate, Vidal works as a cheap, low-rostered dart throw. Omarion Hampton ($6,800) is nursing a new ankle injury, and even though Vidal missed Week 17 himself with a neck injury, it’s encouraging that he got on the field for a few carries before sitting with the rest of the Charger starters in Week 18. There’s a chance Vidal sees more work than expected, including through the air in a negative game script, against New England.
Wide Receivers
As I stated leading into the WRs for the Saturday slate, make sure to use general DFS rules when choosing your WRs. Stack with your QB and look for TD upside, especially on FD
A.J. Brown vs. SF – $8,400
Brown is the most expensive WR on Sunday, but projects as just the fourth-most rostered at the position in the optimizer. He carries the highest ceiling at the position, having topped 22 FD points three times this season, more than any other WR on the slate. I did not write up Jalen Hurts at QB because of my preference for Saquon, but I nearly made the case for double-stacking him with DeVonta Smith ($6,800), and wouldn’t but up a strong argument against it.
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Jauan Jennings @ PHI – $6,700
I’ve avoided Jennings this season, mostly to my detriment. He’s one of only ten WRs in the NFL to score at least nine TDs this season, and he did so in just 15 games. He’s a bring-back option if you’re rostering any Eagles, and is just as likely to find the end zone for San Francisco as Christian McCaffrey or George Kittle, but at a much more affordable salary.
Quentin Johnston @ NE – $6,400
Choosing a pass-catcher for the other side of Maye stacks is a tough call, but I give Johnston a slight lean over Ladd McConkey ($6,500). After a blistering hot start, Quge slowed down for a while before re-emerging with 101 yards/game over Weeks 16-17. I might prefer McConkey on DK, but Johnston can do his damage on lower volume, which is what we are looking for on FD. He is also projected to be lower-rostered than Ladd in the optimizer.
Kayshon Boutte vs. LAC – $5,700
OR
Demario Douglas vs. LAC – $5,500
I was ready to only write up Boutte here as my preferred stacking partner with Drake Maye. He’s provided the kinds of big plays and spike weeks that we look for in DFS throughout the season. However, he is now dealing with a hamstring injury that popped up in practice this week. If he sits or is limited, it could make sense to pivot to Douglas, who could see an increased role.
Tight Ends
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George Kittle @ PHI – $6,300
I’m paying up for Kittle if I can. He’s been a top-ten fantasy TE in seven of his 11 games played, including three times inside the top two. He has the highest ceiling not only on Sunday, but the entire Wild Card Weekend. Even if I’m not stacking this game, I will happily play Kittle as a one-off.
Dawson Knox @ JAC – $4,700
Dalton Kincaid ($5,100) projects to be far more popular, but give me the salary savings with Knox. He has just one fewer TD than Kincaid on the season and has finished as a top-ten TE three times in the last five weeks, all in games that Kincaid also played. He is my favorite and the cheapest stacking option with Josh Allen.
DST
As I wrote for the Saturday slate, you can save DST until last and find the one that best fits your build. The Los Angeles Chargers ($3,400) are showing up as the most popular, likely because they are the cheapest. This makes the New England Patriots ($4,800) an interesting pivot if you can find the salary to pay all the way up. The Philadelphia Eagles ($4,200) are also appealing as home favorites who are projected to come in with a lower roster percentage.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/CxEMjnd
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