Welcome to the semifinals. You’re officially one win away from the championship game. Everything you did all season, the waiver wire grind, the bold trades, the risky Start/Sit calls, it all led to this. The safety net is gone. One mistake and it’s over. One right call can put you in the finals. But have no fear, the Ballers are back with their favorite starts for Week 16 to help you punch that ticket to the championship. Every decision matters. Let’s make the right ones.
Andy’s Starts of the Week
QB Caleb Williams vs GB
Andy’s giving you the green light on Caleb Williams. This is it for Chicago. Must-win game at home, and that’s where Caleb has been at his best. At home this year, he’s averaging 20.6 FPPG, and that rushing floor has been money with 28 yds per game on the ground. In the semifinals, that stuff matters. The matchup also helps a lot. Green Bay has been way less scary on the road, struggling in two of their last three away games, and they won’t have Micah Parsons bringing the heat. We just watched them give up a ton of points to the Broncos. Home field. Must win. Rushing upside. That’s a combo you can feel good about in a week like this.
RB Omarion Hampton @ DAL
Hampton, in his two games back, has handled 15 and 16 touches, and the usage is sneakier than it looks. Even though he was out-snapped 42 to 24 last week, Hampton touched the ball on 67% of his snaps. When he’s on the field, he’s getting the work. The matchup sets up nicely, too. Dallas has been a defense to target on the ground, ranking 31st in explosive rush rate allowed and 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. There’s also a chance Dallas is without Quinnen Williams, which would only soften things up.
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WR Michael Wilson vs. ATL
Michael Wilson has been on an absolute heater. Over the last five weeks, he’s the WR1 in fantasy, leading all WRs in total fantasy points and FPPG. This isn’t a fluke anymore. The environment is perfect, too. This one’s in a dome and carries a 48.5 game total, tied for the third-highest total of the week. Points are expected, and Wilson has been at the center of everything this offense is doing through the air. Over the last five weeks, Atlanta ranks dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. They have been getting torched, and now they draw the hottest WR in fantasy.
TE Dallas Goedert @ WAS
Goedert has quietly turned into a difference-maker at TE. He’s the TE4 on the year, fueled by a career-high nine receiving TDs. He’s also just six catches away from setting a new career high in receptions. The big difference? He’s being used near the goal line. From 2021–2024, Goedert saw just four total targets inside the 5-yard line, turning them into two TDs. This season? He already has seven targets inside the five, and six of them have gone for scores. That’s a massive role shift. The matchup seals it for Andy. Washington is allowing the highest yards per pass attempt in the NFL and ranks 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. Andy is going back to the well with Goedert again.
Jason’s Starts of the Week
QB Dak Prescott vs. LAC
Dak leads the league in passing yards, and at this point, everything Dallas wants to do runs through his arm. Dallas games are averaging 59 combined points, the most in the NFL and the highest mark by any team since the 2018 Chiefs during Mahomes’ first MVP season. Vegas is on board, too. This one has a 49.5 total, the second highest of the week, and Jason is all over the over. At home, Dak has been money: 21.6 FPPG, 309 yds, and just under two passing TDs per game. With the Chargers coming to Dallas, everything lines up for another high-volume, high-upside spot for Dak.
RB Audric Estime @ NYJ
Jason is officially strapping on the titanium underpants for this one. With Devin Neal ruled out, Estime is lining up as the Saints’ guy this week. Estime definitely has the size for the role. 5’11”, 227 pounds. Thiccc. He’s not just a grinder either; he even chipped in three targets last week, which only helps the floor. The setup is beautiful. New Orleans is a 4.5-point home favorite, and the matchup is about as good as it gets. Over the last five weeks, the Jets rank dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and have given up the most rushing TDs in that span. This defense is getting steamrolled. How much does Jason believe? He’s actually starting Estime in the fantasy playoffs… over David Montgomery.
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
WR DK Metcalf @ DET
For the second straight week, DK Metcalf finds himself as a Start of the Week. Despite all the complaints this year, Metcalf is the WR15 on the season after being drafted around WR20 back in August. His usage has jumped, too. Over the last six weeks, DK’s target share is up to 26%, a big jump from the 20% he was sitting at through Week 9. He’s got a B in consistency. And this is the matchup you want in the semifinals. Detroit runs man coverage at the highest rate in the league, which is exactly where DK thrives. In that same span, the Lions have allowed the highest explosive pass-play rate in the NFL, and on the season, they rank 31st in fantasy points above expectation allowed to outside WRs. Detroit can also shut down pass-catching RBs very well, which is something the Steelers utilize a ton. This could force them to utilize Metcalf more this week.
TE Oronde Gadsden @ DAL
Jason is also starting Gadsden this week — over Schultz, over Waller, over Parkinson, over Juwan Johnson. He’s a legit downfield threat. With Quentin Johnston banged up and Tre Harris hurt, there is room for someone else to step up in this passing game. Gadsden saw five targets last week, turning them into four catches for 61 yards. And we’ve already talked about how Cowboys games tend to go bonkers, which is exactly the kind of environment you want when you are chasing ceiling.
Mike’s Starts of the Week
QB Jacoby Brissett vs. ATL
The top 12 streak is still alive… and somehow Jacoby Brissett is still hanging out on some waiver wires. Wild. With Bam Knight out, there’s really no guessing here: this offense is going to throw a lot. This feels like one of those Brissett chucks-it-50-times kind of games. The Cardinals lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation, and they are fully letting Jacoby cook. In nine starts, Brissett is averaging 43 pass attempts per game and a league-best 300.8 passing yds per game. And the matchup? Very friendly. Over the last five weeks, the Falcons rank 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. If you need a playoff QB, don’t overthink it. Ride the streak.
Houston RBs vs. LV
At this point, it almost doesn’t matter who the Texans roll out there. Woody. Chubb. Jawhar Jordan (who’s fresh off a 100-yard game last week). Whoever gets the start is in a great spot. Houston is a 14.5-point home favorite against the Raiders. What does that mean for fantasy? Over the last five years, teams favored by two TDs are averaging 31 rushing attempts, 145 rushing yards, and 1.5 rushing TDs per game. The matchup only adds to it. Over the last five weeks, Las Vegas ranks 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. They’ve been getting pushed around, and this sets up as a clock-killing, ground-and-pound kind of afternoon.
Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
WR Jauan Jennings @ IND
Jennings just keeps getting it done. Since Week 9, he’s finished as a top 24 WR in five of his last six games, and he’s found the end zone six times in that span. This isn’t a random hot streak. Over the last two months, Jennings has posted a 23% target share, cementing himself as the clear WR1 in this offense. With Ricky Pearsall dealing with a PCL injury, expect even more Jennings in primetime on Monday night. The matchup helps, too. Over the last five weeks, Indianapolis ranks 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Volume, red-zone usage, and a soft defense all point in the same direction. Mike has Jennings locked in his lineups.
TE Brenton Strange @ DEN
There are a lot of ugly TE start/sit calls this week, and Brenton Strange is one of the better widely available options if you need help. He’s still sitting on plenty of waiver wires, but the usage says he belongs in the conversation. Strange has been quietly efficient all season. He leads all Jaguars pass-catchers in yards per route run (1.96) and is being targeted on 21% of his routes. Since returning from injury, he’s running a route on 68% of dropbacks and averaging 48 receiving yards per game, which is very playable production at this position. Over the last five weeks, Denver ranks 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs and 26th in receiving yards allowed. If you are streaming TE and need a steady option with some upside, Strange makes a lot of sense this week.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/FoJmcAT
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