Welcome to the fantasy playoffs! You made it here by working the waivers, grinding through trade talks, sweating every Start/Sit, and refusing to let your season slip away. Now it’s win and advance. Every call matters, and the margin for error is gone. But you have put yourself in a position to make a real run at this thing. Don’t worry, you don’t have to go at it alone. The Ballers are back with their favorite starts for Week 15 to help keep those championship hopes alive. Here are the Ballers’ Week 15 Starts of the Week:
Andy’s Starts of the Week
QB Lamar Jackson @ CIN
Andy gets it — starting Lamar after the month he’s had hasn’t exactly felt fun. But last week Lamar finally looked like he’s turning the corner after gutting through injuries. In Week 14, we saw flashes of real Lamar again. He finished as the QB8 and hit his highest rushing total (43 yards) since Week 4. Now he walks into a must-win divisional rematch with a 52.5 total and the Ravens sitting as slight road favorites. The best part? He gets the Bengals’ “defense” this week. Cincinnati is the defense to chase. They are 2nd-to-last in passing yards allowed and schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Everything lines up for a true Lamar statement game… and it could be a beautiful one.
RB Chris Rodriguez @ NYG
Chris Rodriguez has quietly become the guy in Washington’s backfield. Over the last month, he’s soaked up 60% of the RB touches, and more importantly, he’s cashing them in. He has scored four rushing TDs since Week 7, which is somehow more than James Cook and Bijan in that span. And no, it’s not a fluke. Andy’s fully in, pointing out that Rodriguez has a 70% rush success rate since Week 9, which is second-best in the entire NFL behind Kyren Williams. This week, he gets the Giants, who are gift-wrapping rushing yards at this point. They are 31st in rushing yards allowed, 31st in yards before contact allowed, and 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Andy LOVES this spot for Rodriguez. Sorry, Bill fans. Rodriguez is HIM.
WR DK Metcalf vs MIA
It sounds wild, but adding old man Adam Thielen and MVS is actually helping DK Metcalf. Defenses suddenly have to pay attention to the other guys, and Aaron Rodgers took full advantage, giving DK his highest target share of the season last week. He even got two inside-the-five chances that easily could have been TDs. Pittsburgh is fighting to lock up the AFC North, and the MNF matchup against Miami has Andy circling Metcalf again. Miami’s pass defense is spring-loaded with holes, allowing the highest completion percentage in the NFL. They are 27th against fantasy WRs over the last five weeks.
TE Dalton Kincaid @ NE
He’s been earning targets all year, and the Bills clearly trust him. Kincaid came back from a three-week absence and instantly finished as the TE6, dropping a 4/41/1 line on five targets and getting looks on a wild 33% of his routes. That’s elite usage. And it is not a fluke. On the season, he is Buffalo’s top pass-game option with a 28% targets-per-route rate, which is 1st on the team and 1st among ALL NFL TEs. Now he gets the Patriots, who are bottom-five vs TEs (27th in receptions allowed, 24th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points). Andy’s expecting the Bills to roll, and if that happens, Kincaid is the engine of the passing game.
Jason’s Starts of the Week
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QB Jared Goff @ LAR
REVENGE at the CORE! Goff heads back to LA to take on the Rams, and this matchup is loaded with everything we want for fantasy. The 55.5 over/under is the highest of the entire year, and the Rams are a pass-funnel defense. Sorry, Gibbs owners. They are allowing a hefty 36 pass attempts per game. And when Goff hits that volume? Money. In his 29 games as a Lion with 36+ attempts, he’s averaged 292 yards and 2 passing TDs. Plus… he’s got Isaac TeSlaa. What’s not to be ecstatic about?
RB Travis Etienne vs NYJ
Travis Etienne just keeps stacking strong weeks. He’s the RB11 on the season, averaging 18.5 opportunities per game, and he has quietly posted top-12 finishes in five of six games since Jacksonville’s Week 8 bye. When the Jaguars win, Etienne eats. The averages 14.7 fantasy points and 91 total yards per game in Jacksonville victories. Good news: they are 12.5-point home favorites this week. Even better news: the Jets’ run defense doesn’t exist. They are 30th in rushing yards allowed, 28th in rushing TDs allowed, and 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Everything lines up for Etienne to stay hot.
WR Justin Jefferson @ DAL
If not now, when? Jefferson’s been quiet by his standards, but this is the exact matchup you wait for. Dallas’s passing defense numbers are BRUTAL. Dead last in passing yards, TDs, and schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing receivers. If you’ve been holding out for the “Justin Jefferson week”… this is the spot.
TE Mark Andrews @ CIN
Don’t overthink this one. The snaps and routes still scream Mark “Moneybags” Andrews. Last week, Andrews ran 79% of the routes compared to Likely’s 45%. It’s clear who the TE1 is in this offense. He also saw two targets inside the 10-yard line last week. They didn’t connect, but that kind of usage is exactly what we want. You target Cincinnati’s defense when it comes to starting TEs. The Ballers mentioned this last week: If you took every “team’s TE1 vs CIN” this season (not counting backup TE production), that player would rank 7th in the entire NFL in receiving yards. Even crazier: Cincinnati still hasn’t faced any of the top fantasy TEs. No McBride, Kelce, Ferguson, Warren, Bowers, or even Kittle. They have gotten the soft schedule and still can’t stop the position.
Mike’s Starts of the Week
Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
QB Jaxson Dart vs WAS
Only Josh Allen is averaging a higher fpts per drop back this season. At home, he’s averaged 43 rushing ypg. Last time we saw him, he didn’t have any designed runs after all the concussions. But even without the designed runs… Dart can produce for fantasy, especially with the matchup. Washington’s pass defense is DEAD LAST in yards per pass attempt allowed and 30th in schedule-adjusted fpts allowed to QBs.
RB Woody Marks vs ARI
Even against tough run defenses, Woody Marks is getting it done. He finished as the RB14 in Arrowhead, played a season-high 87% of the snaps, and handled 29 opportunities. Workhorse things. Over the last six weeks, he has led this entire offense with 31% of the team’s combined rush attempts and targets. Houston isn’t hinting… they are telling us he is the engine. And now he gets the Cardinals, a defense that just got smashed by the Rams and ranks 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Add in the Texans as 9.5-point home favorites, and everything points to another monster workload. He didn’t practice yesterday, so keep an eye on it. But if Woody is active, you don’t get cute. You plug him in everywhere. He’s the focal point of this offense and is lined up for another big week.
WR Emeka Egbuka vs ATL
Yeah, it’s been a rough month. Egbuka hasn’t cracked a top-40 finish in four straight weeks. But the underlying usage? Still elite. Over that span, he owns a 31% target share and 34% of the team’s first-read targets. And now he walks into his best setup in over a month: no rain in the Thursday forecast and a matchup against an Atlanta pass defense that has been dead last vs fantasy WRs since Week 8. If you have been waiting for the metrics to finally turn into production, this is the spot.
TE Theo Johnson vs WAS
Mike is stacking Dart with Theo Johnson this week, and honestly, the rumblings are true: these two have a little bromance brewing. A little friendship, if you will. Theo just keeps proving he belongs in your lineup. He now has five top-10 TE finishes since Week 5. His usage backs it up with 86% of the snaps and is on pace for an 89-target, 55/600/7 season. Only two second-year TEs in the last decade have hit that trifecta of volume, production, and scoring pace. Johnson is flirting with rare company. Mike loves the matchup against the Commanders, who rank 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs, and over the last two weeks, they’ve been just as bad as the Bengals. Theo’s role is real, the chemistry with Dart is real, and this matchup is exactly what you want in the fantasy playoffs.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/EjR8FGZ
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