In this article, I will be diving into NFL team performance trends going into Week 16. The stats displayed in this article all refer to the graphics at the end. For general reference, EPA stands for expected points added; the term is used frequently in the article and measures the expected points generated by a given play. Essentially, it is a measure of how efficient (good or bad) a player or team is.
If you’re reading this, you are probably in Week 2 of your playoffs, so this is a big one! Let’s jump into things.
Team Performance Trends
The following takeaways mainly refer to the EPA trendline chart shown below, which shows how each team is trending both offensively and defensively week to week.
The Jaguars’ offense has continued their upward trend in offensive efficiency, but has a tough matchup against the Broncos in Week 16. While Denver has a 0.03 defensive EPA on the season, their last five weeks have been below or at the league mean (0.0 EPA/play) in performance. Their weakest point in those past five weeks has beenRB, as they allow just 0.88 points per touch to the position. It is the highest relative across all major positions. Look for the Jags to get Travis Etienne involved as much as possible this week.
The Buccaneers are finally getting their mojo back, with a three-week upward trend in offensive performance that has left them performing at an above-league-average level. With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans back, Baker Mayfield has a new arsenal of weapons to target. They face the Panthers in Week 16, who haven’t had a positive defensive EPA performance in six weeks, and who are allowing 2.85 points per touch to WRs in the past 5 weeks. Look for strong performances from these veteran Bucs WRs.
The Cardinals’ defense is tanking, far below the league average for defensive EPA. They face the Falcons in Week 16, making all Atlanta players a must-start, especially WRs and TEs. If Drake London is cleared to play, he will be facing a defense that has allowed 3.31 points per touch to WRs in the last 5 weeks. Kyle Pitts is in for another huge day, as the Cards have given up 2.68 points per touch to TEs in recent weeks.
Positional Takeaways
If you are looking for spot starts or defensive analysis per position, look no further. The table below breaks down how each defense has performed against every position group in the last 5 weeks. The higher the number, the worse the defense is against the position.
The Lions have struggled greatly against TEs in recent weeks, allowing 2.88 points per touch. This could be a great spot start week for Pat Freiermuth or even Darnell Washington if you are digging deep. Dallas Goedert is also in for a treat against a Washington Commanders team that has allowed 2.94 points per touch to TEs in the last 5 weeks.
Quinshon Judkins is in for a huge day – the Bills have allowed 1.12 points per touch to RBs in the last 5 weeks, tied for the most in the NFL. Look for the Browns to hammer the ground game and for the rookie to put up big numbers. The Saints’ backfield is also in a good spot against the Jets, who have also allowed 1.12 points per touch to RBs in the last five weeks. Whoever gets the start in New Orleans is a candidate for waiver wire claims and even a FLEX start.
The New York Giants have allowed a whopping 3.38 points per touch to WRs in the last five weeks. This is giving JJ McCarthy another opportunity to continue his solid play and feed guys like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor. This is the week to start Vikings WRs, if any.
Below are the full overall rankings for offensive and defensive EPA/play.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/VLZsp0t
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