DK Lines – NYG @ NE
Spread: NE -7.5
Total: 46.5
Team Totals: NE 27, NYG 19.5
Main Books: 55% of the bets are on the Patriots, with another 58% backing them at -7.5. The line has bounced back and forth between 7 and 7.5 over the last 24 hours, with no movement from the O/U at 46.5.
Social Books: As of noon Eastern on 12/1, Novig’s spread moved the line to -6.5 with $5.5k in liquidity available, signaling day-of-game bettors have little confidence in the Giants to keep it within a TD. ProphetX mirrors this, with another $6k in liquidity not getting picked up on the Giants +6.5.
Injuries:
- None
IR/Out:
- K – Graham Gano
- RB – Cam Skattebo
- RB – Antonio Gibson
- WR – Malik Nabers
*Note: Plays listed below are in order of salary, NOT necessarily ranked by preferred plays.
CPT Plays
Drake Maye $17,700 | FLEX $11,800
The first thing that pops out is ownership revolving the top three plays listed here. Drake Maye will come in as the favorite due to the matchup. The Giants have allowed the second-most points (21.5) to the QB position over the last five weeks. Maye is due for a ceiling game, considering he hasn’t surpassed 20 points in the previous four games. Of note, the Giants’ glaring weakness is against the run, as they have allowed the most rushing yards in the league (1,886, including games from this weekend). One interesting trend is that Maye hits his ceiling when the team wins easily: he’s gone over 23 points in five of the seven games in which the Patriots win by six or more points. If the Patriots have no issue covering the spread, it bodes well for Maye’s fantasy upside.
Jaxson Dart $15,000 | FLEX $10,000
Dart is going overlooked at CPT. His ownership is much lower compared to Maye and Henderson, likely due to the implied game total and Patriots win narrative. But why is Dart so much lower than Maye when he’s cheaper and showing similar fantasy upside, even when the Giants lose? There’s a world where both of these QBs are optimal because Dart is averaging 25.85 fantasy points over the last four starts, all of which were losses of four or more points. These are two QBs who could easily crack the optimal lineup no matter the game score because of their impressive fantasy resumes and rushing upside. I will be overweight to Dart at CPT, and most of my lineups will include both QBs, especially in Single Entry.
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