Sometimes you get incredibly fortunate on your 2v2 decisions in cash.
This week I happen to fall right into a play that ultimately won my week in cash.
The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 14 Cash Lineup
Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $10 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 5,000 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1 and $5 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.
The Thought Process
Cash Locks (In My Opinion)
- In our Week 14 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players and this week was blatantly obvious who the top plays were.
- Note
- Michael Wilson (aka Jerry Rice) was my lock and I used the phrase “I could not fathom building a cash game lineup without him.”
- Maybe I was a bit biased but the chance to play Tyler Warren in a great matchup sold me early in the week. However, once the IND/JAC weather shifted, the field left him as the optimal play.
- James Cook
Gut-Wrenching Decisions
My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.
- I felt trapped at RB this week: De’Von Achane ($8800), Josh Jacobs ($6800), Quinshon Judkins ($6400), and RJ Harvey ($5700) all looked like excellent plays at their price points. Jacobs and Judkins were the ones in that $6K range I went back-and-forth with all week.
- Judkins might’ve been too cut of a “zag” while everyone else was zigging. Apart from his 58-yard reception, the outcome was quite ugly despite the Browns putting up more than enough offensive points.
- Once we received news that Rome Odunze would be out, Luther Burden III became a cash lock for me. He also opened up the ability for this lineup to spend up on another stud player opposite James Cook. I wanted one of Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, or De’Von Achane.
- The mid-range WRs (Jakobi Meyers, Christian Watson) were strong options factoring in their rolling target shares over the last three weeks. However, Watson’s career-profile of being a boom/bust player made me slightly worried especially when we received news that Jayden Reed would be coming back. I also abandoned Meyers in the final hour due to my love of Brian Thomas Jr. this week and the mitigating some weather fears. However, you’ll notice my train of logic doesn’t really line up when looking back. I chose to emphasize weather in some spots, ignore it with others, and be ok with it for wanting BTJ to be a thing. We choose what we want to hear, amen?
- This build ended up being a 12-personnel crew at the last minute. I knew the pricing for TEs allowed this to happen and my options were Colston Loveland or Dawson Knox. Once Dalton Kincaid was active, I ruled out Knox although I did play him in some tournament lineups with some succeess!
- This is what I messaged Betz about 2.5 hours before kickoff. I could’ve doubled up between two Packers or take my chances by putting all my eggs in one Puka-sized basket.
- The projections favored the Packers side but I did have some concerns that the CHI/GB game could turn into a dud. The Rams had one of the highest implied totals on the slate and I thought having a Ram as a bring back from my Jacoby + Michael Wilson stack made sense. I did realize that Kyren Williams and Davante Adams easily could’ve been the ones
- I figured Puka would be 25-35% rostered but did not imagine he would be HALF that. That roster percentage alone was what made the biggest difference in the afternoon window coming back after missing out on a few AM plays that hit.
- Having two Bears in the same cash lineup is not ideal. However, once I made the decision to play Puka I knew I would need to punt somewhere.
- CLE DST was a last minute hedge worrying that a majority of the field would be taking them. I was wrong as the field’s exposure at the position was relatively flat. I considered LV for a long time but I would’ve been using the savings ($1700) to improve Loveland. I didn’t love the options at $5000 and instead stared sadly at Christian Watson, who was just $200 more but out of reach.
What Did the Field Do
My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players used the most in cash style contests. You can compare the roster percentage, DK outputs, and how much of their salary they X’ed this week.
Mistakes Were Made …
Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.
- Judkins might’ve been a bit too wild. Paying down at DST and playing Jacobs
- Not playing Watson was certainly a mistake I got away with.
2025 Results
Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $10 Double-Up from DraftKings.
| Week | Cash Line | DK Pts | H2H Win% | Note |
| 1 | 115.38 | 105.42 | 5% | Chase Pay Up Flop |
| 2 | 136.26 | 126.50 | 45% |
Late Swap Forgetfulness
|
| 3 | 150.26 | 151.88 | 56% | CMC + TMcB FTW! |
| 4 | 163.92 | 174.02 | 92% | Puka or Die |
| 5 | 178.62 | 174.32 | 41% | NeverJamoAgain |
| 6 | — | — | — | Beach Life |
| 7 | 159.74 | 158.74 | 38% | Broncos Hysteria |
| 8 | 108.58 | 112.48 | — | Tyler Johnson lol |
| 9 | 171.54 | 175.44 | 81% |
PWash Comes Through
|
| 10 | 162.08 | 166.24 | 60% | TMcB Power |
| 11 | 143.6 | 134.20 | 12% | “Nine” Shame |
| 12 | 190.46 | 183.08 | — | Gibbs vs Amon-Ra |
| 13 | 105.34 | 84.24 | 10% | JSN bomb |
| 14 | 140.04 | 150.04 | 73% | Puka Rescue |
A nice little bounce back thanks to Puka!
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/RZlpD8U
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