Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses that can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
In this article, I highlight the top DFS game environments, factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and routes for game flows. I try to dip into some matchup-based discussions and then run with certain narratives to give you a lean early in the week of how I could see a game play out.
On Friday’s DFS & Betting Podcast, Betz will talk through these games, alongside adding in DFS salaries and roster percentages.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric Borg introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score (GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5, with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up, and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40, which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 6, we’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks from Weeks 1-5.
For those who would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Week 6 Pace of Play CSV.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
Dallas comes in with one of the sharper pace profiles, having shown above-average tempo and a propensity to push the ball downfield, thanks to Dak being red hot and a 3.8% PROE%. If you are wondering where to attack Carolina, the numbers make it obvious: 11 Personnel (RB, TE, and three WRs). They’ve given up -10.04 EPA defending 11 personnel, which ranks them 25th in the league. Translation: Every time teams line up with three wide, the Panthers’ defense turns into a revolving door. Dallas happens to live in 11 personnel running it on almost 68% of plays. Both teams are in the top 12 in No Huddle Rate: DAL 8th at 10.2% and CAR at 11 at 9.3% hopefully catering to a high scoring ecosystem.
Dak will likely be a popular piece this week, but his usual easy-to-click stack mate, CeeDee Lamb, should be out another week. KaVontae Turpin is also questionable, leaving some ambiguity in the pass-catching department. Enter Jake Ferguson. Turd Furg is the current silver medalist in ALL OF THE NFL with 41 receptions, only trailing Puka Nacua (by 11, sheesh, Puka is so good) but ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown by six. While you can slot Ferguson at [air quotes] TE, his price is only $5,800, and he has hit a 3x or better PP$ in every week except week one. Here are his target counts over the last four weeks: 12, 14, 7, 9.
Outside of Ferguson, there’s George Pickens, Ryan Flournoy, and a pandemonium of Jalens (Tolbert, Cropper, and Brooks). What sticks out is the emergence of Flournoy. In Week 5, Pickens went 2/57/1 on 78% of snaps and saved his fantasy day thanks to a bomb TD. Red flag: he only got four targets. Jalen Tolbert was worse with a 0/0/0 line on 77% of snaps and one, almost philanthropic target. Flournoy flourished with nine targets, good for 6/114/0. He will be worth a look at this price of $3,600 if Lamb and Turpin are both out again.
Javonte Williams is playing like the Javonte Williams the Broncos expected when they drafted him in the 2nd round coming out of college. He’s become the Cowboys’ workhorse and played 72% of snaps or better in four of the last five weeks. In all of those weeks, he would have surpassed the 3x PP$ as well, with two of them going 4X PP$. $6,200 is an entirely fair price considering the Panthers’ rank as the NFL’s 23rd “best” Rush D. There’s still a fog, slime, or narrative goo on Williams due to Belief Perseverance (people maintaining the same opinion even when data proves us wrong). He’s in another strong position after scoring both a rushing and receiving TD last week.
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